Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, August 28 at 5:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
- Spread: Boise State (-6.5)
- Over/under: 63.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
Setting the scene
Week 0 is officially in the rearview mirror, and the Week 1 slate officially commences Thursday evening.
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL will be the site of the first kickoff in a nationally-televised 5:30 p.m. ET matchup between first-time opponents. Hosting the matchup is South Florida which enjoys its penultimate season at the home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before its on-campus stadium officially opens. The Bulls are fresh off two 7-6 seasons under Alex Golesh, but in 2025, the expectations
are loftier.
South Florida receives an opportunity at a signature win off the bat, facing a preseason ranked opponent for its third-straight opener. On the other sideline is a Boise State squad that secured a spot — and a bye week — in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. The reigning Mountain West champions lose Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, but nobody is better at reloading than the Broncos. Boise State still totes the longest streak of winning seasons in the FBS, having last finished .500 or worse in 1997.
Boise State Broncos outlook
Boise State’s featured dozens of greats over their 25+ year run of excellence. Ashton Jeanty was the greatest, earning the first top-2 Heisman finish in program history and falling 27 yards short of tying Barry Sanders’ longstanding single-season rushing yards record.
But the No. 25 Broncos have never struggled with replacing All-American talent and they’re labeled as Mountain West favorites for the 15th-straight season — every single year since joining the league 2011. Outside of Jeanty, Boise State returns quite a bit. The Broncos are one of 11 FBS programs to retain their entire full-time coaching staff, and they bring back a Mountain West-best five all-conference players, including four First Team selections (TE Matt Lauter, OT Kage Casey, DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan, and ILB Marco Notarainni).
Fourteen starters from the Fiesta Bowl vs. Penn State remain with the program, giving plenty of continuity to a team which finished top 10 nationally in scoring offense, rushing offense, total offense, third down conversion percentage, first downs, sacks, and tackles for loss. The defense wasn’t too shabby either, ranking 38th in the FBS in fewest points allowed per game, although there were struggles in the coverage department.
Retaining a starting quarterback is always a plus, and the Broncos send out Maddux Madsen after a quietly productive season featuring 3,018 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Due to teams’ stacking the box against Jeanty, Maddux worked with plenty of 1-on-1 matchups and often delivered, completing 62.4% of passes and stringing together four 280+ yard performances.
What type of run support will he receive in 2025? Regardless of which running back is playing, the Broncos’ line is formidable. Five different players (Kage Casey, Tyler Keinath, Zach Holmes, Roger Carreon, and Hall Schmidt, from left to right) started at least six games in 2024, and Casey appears on a CVS receipt of preseason watchlists, including preseason All-American honors by several outlets. Also the Broncos’ original starting center Mason Randolph is back after missing all but four games last fall. Together, they’ll pave a path for Malik Sherrod and Sire Gaines, who hope to become the next members of “The Stable” of elite Boise State running backs — Ashton Jeanty, Doug Martin, Jay Ajayi, Ian Johnson, Alexander Mattison, Jeremy McNichols, and George Holani to name a few.
Sherrod arrives as a transfer from Mountain West rival Fresno State, where he maxed out with 966 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023 — while catching 44 passes on the side. The sixth-year senior saw a production dip in 2024 due to a season-ending ankle injury suffered four games in. He shares the top spot on the depth chart with redshirt freshman Sire Gaines, who averaged 7.8 yards per carry on 20 attempts in 2024 — producing 110 yards in the opener vs. Georgia Southern when Jeanty suffered an injury. There doesn’t have to be an overwhelming No. 1 option. There’s room for multiple running backs to eat in this offense, as 2022 and 2023 Boise State eloquently demonstrated with the Jeanty-Holani duo.
The other skill position players to watch in this offense are Matt Lauter and Latrell Caples, who ranked second and third in receiving yards a year ago. Lauter played an instrumental role as the lead tight end with 619 yards and a team-high seven receiving touchdowns, while Caples produced 473 and five as a speedy threat out of the slot.
Boise State’s theme of continuity extends to the defense. It’s not a unit laden with transfers. According to the depth chart, the only surefire starting transfer is at nose tackle, where Dion Washington (Hawaii) and David Latu (BYU) compete for playing time. They’ll support a stout pass rush that finished second nationally in sacks in 2024. Jayden Virgin-Morgan, who led the charge with 10.0 and 16 tackles for loss, is back in the fold. With returning starters defensive tackle Braxton Fely and inside linebacker Marco Notarainni (17 combined TFL in 2024) alongside Virgin-Morgan, this should be one of the most disruptive fronts in America.
The main question for the 2025 Broncos asks about the secondary. Boise State ranked 107th in passing yards surrendered per game with 241, although teams often abandoned the run against the Broncos due to the blowout nature of most games. Still, home run passing plays led to the team’s lone losses vs. Oregon and Penn State. They’ll look to improve in a unit headlined by cornerback A’Marion McCoy, who produced 60 tackles and a conference-best 14 pass breakups during the Broncos’ run to the CFP.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida completed the initial challenge any rebuilding coach faces. The Bulls successfully climbed out of the gutter. After a 4-29 record spanning three seasons, Alex Golesh instantly resurrected South Florida to 7-6 in 2023 capped with a 45-0 bowl victory over Syracuse. While that was a groundbreaking accomplishment in 2023, year two under Golesh saw a repeat result of 7-6, 4-4 in conference play, and a bowl victory.
Now the Bulls must complete the follow-up task of a rebuild — make the leap from good to great. South Florida arrives to 2025 in a good place with a bulk of returning starters. Perhaps the most welcome sight is the return of starting quarterback Byrum Brown, who was limited to four starts in a 2024 littered with injuries. Sometimes the term “dual-threat quarterback” is applied to a quarterback who can run regardless of his passing abilities, but Brown contains a healthy amount of both attributes. In 2023, he became the first-ever 3,000-yard passer in USF history with 3,292 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on an efficient 64.8 completion rate. At the same time, he rushed for 809 yards and 11 touchdowns and those rushing stats could have been even greater if not for taking an alarming 38 sacks in a season.
As Brown returns to the field in 2025, providing protection is of utmost importance. Sure, he’s going to scramble in effort to extend plays which will produce mixed results, but giving Brown a clean pocket can make him one of the more dangerous quarterbacks in the country. The Bulls will rely on a line which features three returning starters in center Cole Best, guard Zane Herring, and tackle Derek Bowman, along with acquiring established transfer starters in Thomas Shrader (Appalachian State) and Connor McLaughlin (Stanford).
A position group with less clarity is running back, as the Bulls list that pesky “or” between four different options — Cartevious Norton, Sam Franklin, Alton Isaac, and Nykahi Davenport. Norton collected nearly 1,200 rushing yards over three years as a secondary back at Iowa State and Charlotte, while Franklin dominated the FCS level in 2023 before spending a year buried in Oklahoma’s depth chart. Those two boast the experience in the room, while Isaac and Davenport are redshirt freshmen that saw little to no reps in 2024.
Elsewhere on the offense, South Florida must find a new hub for its receiving production after the loss of all-time leading receiver Sean Atkins. Atkins is the only Bull to ever surpass 1,000 receiving yards in a season, and now Keshaun Singleton looks to follow in his former teammate’s footsteps. Singleton ranked second on the roster with 408 receiving yards in 2024. New names need to step up, and that includes returning talent JeyQuan Smith and Josh Porter, as well as incoming transfers Mudia Reuben (Stanford) and Chas Nimrod (Tennessee).
Even without Brown for a bulk of the season, South Florida’s offense finished 33rd nationally in scoring. Golesh’s scheme in itself is a challenge for opponents, featuring extreme tempo and an exaggerated degree of spacing — stretching the field horizontally and vertically to space defenders out.
But the unit dictating whether the Bulls remain decent or become contenders is the defense. USF hasn’t ranked better than 99th in scoring defense once in the 2020s, surrendering 29.8 points per game with the FBS’s 119th-best total defense. Defending the air was particularly an issue, as teams fired for an average of 279 passing yards on the green and gold (7th-worst in the FBS).
Todd Orlando is back as defensive coordinator, and he’ll look to amend a defense led primarily by incumbent Bulls. The linebacking corps is the strength of the unit as veterans Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler continue to grace the campus. Harris ranked first in tackles (82) and tackles for loss (12) in 2024, while Shuler had the upper hand the year prior with 97 tackles and nine tackles for loss. These two must answer the call of Boise State’s high-powered running game, and if they can create enough disruption, there’s no need to over-stack the box Thursday night.
Elsewhere on the unit, former UCF and Texas A&M defensive tackle Josh Celiscar is a welcome newcomer, and he’s donning No. 63 in honor of Buccaneers great Lee Roy Selmon — a brand-new tradition to honor Selmon’s connection with the city. Celiscar and fellow transfer Devin Lee (Vanderbilt) makeup a refurbished defensive tackle room which presents the size and experience to counter Boise State’s offensive line.
In the secondary, the names to watch are cornerback De’Shawn Rucker and free safety Tavin Ward. Rucker excelled as the Bulls’ top lockdown corner in his first season after transferring from Tennessee, while Rucker contributed to the turnover battle with a team-high three interceptions. Takeaways were a bright spot for the USF defense in 2024 as the team ranked top 15 in the country with 25 takeaways.
Prediction
There is palpable hype for this Thursday night opener, and for good reason.
Boise State brings plenty of coaching and player experience to the table, but what most viewers will look for is how the Broncos replace an all-time great like Ashton Jeanty. The offensive line and quarterback stability certainly help the new running backs, and Boise State should remain dangerous with its defensive front led by Jayden Virgin-Morgan.
But the Bulls’ go-go offense can wear out opponents. Every snap is a race to the line of scrimmage, and USF isn’t afraid to take deep shots on the boundaries with their excellent spacing. Byrum Brown is a perfect operator for this offense given his arm talent and ability to make quick reads with his legs.
It’s going to be close throughout, but Brown hasn’t shied away from difficult competition before. He rushed for over 100 on Alabama in 2024 and kept the Bulls close against the Crimson Tide in 2023 with his ability to extend plays. Behind the mobile quarterback, South Florida defends its homefield and pulls off the upset — a massive win for the American Conference should it be pitted against the Mountain West for a CFP spot.
Prediction: South Florida 31, Boise State 27
