There was a time, not so long ago, when seeing the words ‘Manchester’ and ‘United’ on Roma’s fixture list would have sent many of us running for the hills. For us CdT/Roma Offside old-timers, this fear stems from the infamous 7-1 drubbing at Old Trafford in the quarterfinals of the 2006-2007 Champions League. Heading into the second leg with a 2-1 aggregate lead, expectations were high, but Roma’s CL hopes were soon dashed, thanks to a brace from current United manager Michael Carrick (and another
from Cristiano Ronaldo, ending the Giallorossi’s knockout stage dreams in the most embarrassing way imaginable.
Not to be outdone, the more recent Roma fans among us have their own United disaster to look upon not so fondly: a 6-2 blowout in the 2021 Europa League semifinals. After carrying a one-goal lead into the break, Roma came unraveled in the second half, conceding goals to Edinson Cavani (x2), Bruno Fernandes, Paul Pogba and Mason Greenwood.
Match Details
Date: November 3rd
Kickoff: 21:00 CET/3:00 EST
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester, England
Referee: Jesús Gil Manzano (ESP)
We mention those defeats not to trigger any latent Manchester nightmares you may be harboring, but to serve as a point of contrast. The Manchester United Roma faces tomorrow at Old Trafford is not the United of Giggs, young Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney, or even Cavani. This United has fallen on hard times and enters Tuesday’s fixture with only three points from three Champions League matches, and an even more pitiful record domestically, where they sit 17th on the Premier League table.
But what exactly is behind United’s decline and how can Roma exploit the Red Devils weakensses?
Old Trafford: The Theatre of Drab Finishing
With 167 attempts on goal, including 45 on-target shots, United have been among the most trigger-happy clubs in England, so their attacking struggles haven’t come from a lack of trying. Furthermore, Carrick’s side is among the most creative in the Premiership, producing a league-leading 145 key passes and 22 big chances created, good enough for joint eighth in the league.
Thanks to their shot volume and chance creation, United has generated 14 xG, good enough for 6th in the Premiership. And when you consider their respectable possession rate (6th in the league), corners won and interceptions, United looks the part of a possession-based, territorial dominant side.
The problem, as you’ve probably guessed, is one of finishing. Despite doing the legwork well enough, it all crumbles in the final third. While United’s 10 league goals rank a semi-respectable 11th in the league, their 6% conversion rate is atrocious.
On the surface, this should make United ripe for the plucking, especially for a potent side like Roma. Still, Tuesday’s fixture in Manchester is every bit the trap game. However, unlike last weekend’s David vs. Goliath mismatch, Roma’s potential pitfall rests in numbers rather than perceived superiority, like it did with Udinese on Saturday.
Can Roma simply assume United’s finishing woes will persist for another 90 minutes, or will all those shots, all that possession, and all those chances finally bear fruit for Carrick’s club on Tuesday? Are United’s struggles endemic, or simply a statistical anomaly bound to straighten out sooner or later?
Roma’s Path to Victory: Stick to the Plan
As impressive as United’s non-finishing work has been, the real flaw in Carrick’s plan has been the defense. Through nine rounds of play, United has conceded 15 goals, 29 big chances created and 44 shots on target, all of which rank in the lower third of the league. In its simplest terms, Carrick’s defense is incredibly vulnerable, surrending chances at an alarming rate.
The good news is that deconstructing United’s defense won’t require much tinkering from Gasperini; Roma simply needs to stick to the plan and unleash 90 minutes of hell on their English counterparts. Tilt the pitch by attacking the spaces behind United full-backs, press the midfield into submission, and let Malen and Soulé take the top off the defense.
With both sides sitting in the lower reaches of the Champions League table, tomorrow’s result could provide a boost for two clubs desperate to advance directly to the Knockout Phase.
