The lab is first and foremost a place where we get to learn more about baseball. As much as I would love to pass myself off as an expert in all things, that would be the height of hubris and would deprive all of us the opportunity to avail ourselves of genuine expertise. As most of you know, Jimmy Price has been contributing here at the Crawfish Boxes for some time. He also has his individual venture called Astros Future. I wanted to learn more about the process of evaluating younger players and how
statistics are used to predict which minor leaguers will make it and which ones won’t. Jimmy seemed like the perfect resource to tap into.
The Crawfish Boxes: Most dedicated fans know about the five tools. Has there ever been consideration of adding plate discipline as a sixth tool or should it be folded into the hit tool?
Jimmy Price: Great question. I think it is built into the hit tool right now. If a guy has big power but poor pitch selection, his hit tool will falter. But if someone has great plate discipline and selection, their hit tool could still fall if they don’t make enough contact. I love the idea of rating on just plate discipline.
TCB: As a scouting expert, how do you integrate in person scouting accounts with statistical or empirical evidence?
JP: Definitely no expert here.. but in person you get to see more and hear more. The sound of the bat, pitches, etc. You get a better feel for movement defensively. I think it’s important to look at both. What you see in person and what the statistics say.
TCB: As someone that focuses on minors and amateur baseball, which numbers do you trust the most in predicting future success?
JP: A few numbers I like to look at… for pitchers, I like to look at BAA. We see prospects have poor command but that is something that can be improved. If your pitches are hard to square up, that’s a good trait to have. For hitters, I’m a big fan of plate discipline. I like to look at BB/SO ratio but then look at their swinging strike percentage. Plate discipline is good but when you decide to swing, you have to be able to make contact.
TCB: The current regime seems to be collecting toolsy guys that have some swing and miss issues. Is this by design or is it a function of picking lower in the first round and limited bonus pool money?
JP: I think this might just be the preference for Dana Brown and his crew. Power is hard to teach but I am sure the Astros feel with some tweaks they can make adjustments to help prospects make more contact, or make better swing decisions. Raw tools are a gift that can’t be replicated.
TCB: Who are three or four names you are excited to see this year in the Houston system?
JP: I would start with Cole Hertzler. I think he is a breakout candidate and may win pitcher of the year in the system. Anthony Huezo is another who had a solid 2025 season and will now be a full-season player. Xavier Neyens will get some actual in-game action which will be great to watch. Lastly I would say Ethan Frey. Great numbers last year and I think he has a chance to be a fast riser.
I definitely want to thank Jimmy for joining us here In The Lab. It probably won’t be the last time we tap into him. I know it is shameless cross promotion, but this is an important year for the Astros in terms of their minor league system. The Astros received an extra pick because Hunter Brown finished in the top three in the Cy Young vote and they received a compensation pick because Framber Valdez signed with the Detroit Tigers. Those extra picks also bring extra bonus pool money that will give the Astros some flexibility in signing their draftees. As we get closer to June, make sure to keep tabs on what Jimmy is doing so that you can be plugged into the Astros draft.
