Following Wednesday’s WNBA games, four of eight playoff seeds are now settled.
After the Minnesota Lynx, with an (unwanted?) assist from the Portland Fire, locked down the No. 1 seed on Tuesday, the Atlanta Dream earned the No. 4 seed and homecourt advantage in the first round with a second-straight win over the now-official No. 8-seed New York Liberty. With New York’s loss, the Dallas Wings secured the No. 7 seed with their win over the Seattle Storm.
That leaves the No. 2 seed, No. 3 seed, No. 5
seed and No. 6 seed still undetermined. Here’s the current state of the standings, with asterisks denoting the seeds that are finalized:
- Minnesota Lynx (32-11)*
- Golden State Valkyries (31-12)
- Las Vegas Aces (30-13)
- Atlanta Dream (30-14)*
- Indiana Fever (28-15)
- Washington Mystics (27-16)
- Dallas Wings (27-17)*
- New York Liberty (26-18)*
If all of the Golden State Valkyries, Las Vegas Aces, Indiana Fever and Washington Mystics win, things will remain as is. That outcome probably should be the expectation.
However, let’s take a closer look at the stakes and scenarios facing the Valkyries, Aces, Fever and Mystics. In the comments, be sure to give your predictions.
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks (10 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass)
The Valkyries are the opponent for the final game of Nneka Ogwumike’s WNBA career.
While a loss would slightly better the Sparks’ lottery odds, the team has appeared to prioritize competing with the kind of class Nneka demonstrated throughout her career—they’ve won their last three games over fellow lottery-bound teams—over any potential percentage bump in lottery balls.
If the Sparks are motivated to send off Nneka with a win, the Valkyries might have a more challenging game than anticipated. They enter with a clean injury report, and plenty of incentive to clinch the No. 2 seed.
With a win, they would set up a first round series against the No. 7-seed Wings. Golden State swept the season series against Dallas, winning the three games by 11 points, 18 points and eight points.
That said, will the Valkyries view avoiding injury as even more valuable?
On Wednesday, the Liberty opted to rest Breanna Stewart, with head coach Chris DeMarco suggesting the decision was “just precautionary with some soreness.” (Or, New York wanted the first round series against Minnesota, rather than Golden State or Vegas?)
Unfortunately for the Liberty, their precaution with Stewie was proven particularly smart when Jonquel Jones suffered an ankle injury after stepping on a fan’s foot. She was ruled out for the remainder of the game. Early indications are that it is not serious enough to sideline her for the playoffs, with DeMarco sharing that she was “in good spirits” after the game.
Atlanta also experienced an injury scare when Sabrina Ionescu’s errant arm bar hit Angel Reese in the face, sending her back to the locker room and requiring her to miss the start of the second half; Angel eventually returned to the game.
Those plays, however, might be on the mind of Golden State head coach Natalie Nakase as she manages her team’s final game.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury (10 p.m. ET, USA Network/CNBC)
The WNBA schedule makers thought they were cooking by scheduling a rematch of the 2025 WNBA Finals as the final game for the Aces and Phoenix Mercury.
Of course, when the Mercury saw the Aces across the way on opening day, they delivered what turned out to be their very best performance of the season, blowing out the defending champs on their homecourt. Might Phoenix bookend their season with a similar showing? (Such a circumstance, however, might be more torturous than thrilling for Mercury fans who have had to witness a lot of disappointment between the opener and finale.)
If the Valkyries win, the Aces are stuck in the No. 3 seed, regardless of what happens.
So, I would expect head coach Becky Hammon’s hoodied assistants to be closely monitoring the score in LA. If the Valkyries establish a lead, there’s no reason to put any extra miles on the Big 3 of A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young. Conversely, if the Sparks are giving it their all for Nneka, the Aces might be motivated to push for the win.
Or, maybe not?
As I noted yesterday, Dallas, the No. 7 seed, had an edge over Vegas this season, possibly incentivizing the Aces to avoid the No. 2 seed.
A decision also could be influenced by which team ends up in the No. 6 seed, as the results of Fever-Lynx should be settled by tip off in Phoenix, if not soon after. Vegas lost the season series to Indiana 1-2, with that one win requiring a near miracle, and won the season over Washington 2-1, although both wins were hard-fought.
Considering the Fever gave the Aces their toughest series during last season’s title run, I could see them gunning for the No. 2 seed if Indiana falls to No. 6. But again, that’s only possible if it appears Golden State is going to lose to Los Angeles.
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx (8 p.m. ET, USA Network)
Even with the No. 1 seed locked up, Olivia Miles is the only rotational regular on the Lynx listed on the injury report.
That means the four starters that head coach Cheryl Reeve benched for the second half of Tuesday’s loss in Indiana—Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Natasha Howard—will at least start this game, barring a late change to the injury report.
While the motivation behind Reeve’s move on Tuesday can be debated as truly about rest, a statement about the starters’ play or a possibly failed attempt at playoff matchup manipulation, it would be surprising if any of those four play significant minutes.
The Lynx’s absence of incentives should make this a relatively easy Fever win, which would keep them in the No. 5 seed and set up a first-round rematch with the No. 4-seed Dream.
However, Minnesota’s deeper reserves, likely aware that they’re going to see little, if any, playing time in the playoffs, could cause Indy some troubles. For such players, this is a perfect proving ground for their next contract, whether for an overseas team or next season in the W. They’re going to try their best to make Indiana earn that No. 5 seed.
And, are we sure the Fever want the No. 5 seed?
I think so. As mentioned above, they’ve given the likely No. 3-seed Aces some problems, but angling to play the defending champs over a Dream group that’s never won a playoff series together would be insane.
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics (7:30 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass)
The Chicago Sky’s injury report features five names, with more possibly added before tip off.
Washington can add insult to those injuries: Giving the Sky one more L would provide a final lottery-ball boost for the Mystics, as Washington owns Chicago’s 2027 first-round pick.
However, I would expect injury avoidance to be DC’s top priority, as they are dependent on a Fever loss to escape the No. 6 seed.
Whether they end up as the No. 5 seed or No. 6 seed, the Mystics should enter the playoffs pressure-free as ahead-of-schedule overachievers, which should make the Dream, Aces or Valkyries wary if they end up with Washington on the other side.
