Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
64 offensive yards in the
first half? It’s a bold strategy, Cotton.
HOW WELL?
mouseover definitions: arsr, edp, sg%, oz%, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, drp, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, qbsr, epa/p, adj/p
- Indianapolis got strong production from its running game while utilizing a balanced approach on early downs. (7th ARSR; 17th EDP)
- Jones faced relatively little pressure even though he held the ball longer than most quarterbacks, which let plays develop and should have given him plenty of time to find an open man downfield. (20th PR%; 10th TIP; 8th TTT)
- Or at least that should have been the case. Instead, his completions generated relatively little yardage through the air. Better-than-average production after the catch helped compensate, but his overall yards per completion remained below average. (26th AY/C; 10th YAC; 12th YCOE; 21st YD/C)
- Jones completion rate fell well short of expectations. Combined with the limited yardage on his completions, that left his yards per attempt near the bottom of the league . . . AGAIN! (21st AC%; 29th CPOE; 24th AYPA)
- Receivers dropped two passes, which certainly didn’t help, while Jones abandoned six plays: two scrambles, two throwaways and two sacks. Even so, his abandoned-attempt rate was below league average, preventing his already poor yardage efficiency from falling even further. (7th DRP; 13th SCR%; 17th TA%; 19th SCK%; 20th AA%; 23rd NY/D; 23rd NY/P)
- The Colts struggled to generate first downs through the passing game and managed just one touchdown, with the interception locking in the loss. (27th 1ST%; 18th TD%; 17th TO%)
- Overall, Jones struggled to consistently generate positive plays. The 55-yard touchdown pass provided one enormous bright spot, but it wasn’t nearly enough to overcome the numerous negative plays. He finished with an ugly -0.17 EPA per play, once again ranking near the bottom of the league in overall efficiency. (22nd QBSR; 26th EPA/P)
Jones’ efficiency curve starts near the bottom of the league, reflecting very little production through the air on completed passes. Strong yards after the catch provided a modest boost, but little else he did moved the needle.
Jones’ performance was dominated by negative plays, particularly in the first half, when a 10-yard sack cost the Colts 2.1 EPA. His 55-yard touchdown pass to Ashton Dulin (+4.6 EPA) provided a huge boost, and a 40-yard pass interference penalty added another 2.3 EPA. Unfortunately, those big gains were overwhelmed by numerous smaller negative plays and a game ending interception (-2.5 EPA). Overall, Jones generated positive EPA on just 40% of his plays finishing with a miserable -0.17 EPA per play.
Jones’ longer-term trends continue to paint a pretty bleak picture. His success rate improved slightly, but his first-down rate fell for the fourth consecutive week to just 23.1%, continuing a catastrophic downward trend. On the production side, net yards per play improved for the second straight week to 5.4, while EPA per play rebounded from last week’s disaster but remained firmly negative. Despite those modest improvements, the rolling averages continue to trend downward, with all four metrics sitting well below league average.
HOW FAR?
Jones had a few productive stretches of short completions, but struggled to sustain any meaningful passing production. The touchdown pass and the pass interference plays are the clear outliers on the day. Jones failed to complete a single pass beyond 14 air yards, and his final four throws resulted in three incompletions and a pick.
After two weeks of unusually short passes, Jones returned to a more typical target depth, increasing his average from to 8.2 yards. However, his completed passes averaged just 4.5 yards downfield, an improvement over last week’s god-awful 3.1 yards, but still in the bottom third of the league.
TO WHO?
Ashton Dulin led the Colts with 55 receiving yards, all coming after the catch on his lone reception, which went for a touchdown. Tyler Warren added 44 yards, while Keenan Allen led the team with 25 completed air yards but managed just one yard after the catch.
Keenan Allen and Josh Downs continue to lead the Colts in receiving production, with Downs holding a slight edge in total yards. . . but not for long. Tyler Warren is a distant third.
Ashton Dulin was the lone bright spot off of one — count them —one catch. Everyone else fell below league average, with Keenan Allen (-0.47 EPA per target) and Jonathan Taylor (-0.37) producing particularly poor value despite combining for 13 targets. Even Tyler Warren and Josh Downs, who fared somewhat better, generated essentially zero EPA per target.
Other than Pierce, there are no receivers with significant value above average on the season.
HOW ACCURATE?
Jones completed 21 of 31 adjusted attempts (drops/throw-aways removed), finishing with a 68% adjusted completion rate and -6% CPOE, a noticeable decline from last week’s +2% CPOE. For the season, his completion rate remains below league average at nearly every passing depth, with particularly poor results on throws beyond 20 yards. The one bright spot continues to be screen passes and checkdowns behind the line, where he’s completing 87% . . . hooray!
HOW FAST?
Jones averaged 2.87 seconds to throw this week, a significant increase from last week’s 2.44 seconds, while taking one fewer sack. For the season, his time to throw remains slightly quicker than expected for the depth of his targets, sitting just below the league trend line.
TO WHERE?
Jones only real success was on passes behind the line of scrimmage, which really tells the whole story.
Red is bad. Any questions?
