It was great to see Anthony Rizzo back at the park and in a Cubs jersey. The first four innings were great, through five things were fine. But after that, things turned sour pretty quickly. In the end, another one of those frustrating Cub losses. This game encapsulates the “bad” part of the season. This team is almost certainly headed over 90 wins and that will finish them no worse than the second Wild Card. But this team has a best winning streak of five straight, as we’ve talked about several times
this week.
This team seems incapable of getting over the top and getting into a groove and just dominating. On a given date, they might look dominating, but tune in a few days later and they’ll be losing a game that you felt they had under control. Ironically, this matchup was pretty favorable for the Rays. I don’t think any of us would have lost too many thoughts if Drew Rasmussen had just shoved, locked the Cubs down and the Rays had just beaten up the Cubs. But once the Cubs did get three runs over three innings against Rasmussen, you had to feel like this was a game they should win.
This was one of those catch-22 games. The Cubs were on day two of 10 straight. They had a full availability bullpen. But also, there has to be some consideration of what the next eight games look like. With Daniel Palencia hurt, did any Cub reliever that you really trust not throw in this one? The most trustworthy guy not to pitch was Andrew Kittredge, I think. I can create an argument that Brad Keller just faced the top of the Rays order on Friday. But wait, the homer that cost the Cubs this game was by Nick Fortes, off of the bench, who did not see Keller on Friday. Keller hadn’t allowed a single run since before the All-Star break. Are we really going to second guess using Keller?
Porter Hodge allowed a run against the bottom half of the Rays lineup in the eighth. Is Hodge in your circle of trust? He probably hasn’t earned it. But, were you also mad in 2023 when the team derailed late after the same four relievers closed out what seemed like the last four innings of every close game the last 100 games or so of the season. I think if you are going to argue, you argue that Colin Rea probably shouldn’t have been out there for the sixth. But that’s the actual catch-22. Second of 10 straight. You can’t just run the same three to five games into the ground.
I know we want to have urgency and I see where that comes from. You really want to finish strong. Also, the Cubs are never going to catch the Brewers. That ship sailed some time ago. The Mets, the Reds and the Giants have no chance of catching the Cubs. It’s really down to the Padres and the Cubs for the top two Wild Card spots. I’m not following the Padres close enough to guarantee you that they won’t get caught by anyone. It feels like they are more like to catch the Cubs (and/or the Dodgers) than be caught by any of the teams behind them.
The Cubs had six hits, two of them doubles and two homers. They drew five walks and stole two bases. That’s not bad production. Four runs is a pretty reasonable production though. It’s hard to look at the offense and say that four runs is totally inadequate. That’s not a bad number. But also, when the bullpen allows runs, losses often follow. The Cub bullpen allowed two (the Rays pen allowed one).
I can’t pin it on one of them, but it does feel like if any of the starting pitching, relief pitching or offense performs better in this one, the Cubs win. Alas, they come up short and the winning streak is stopped at three. The Cubs have gotten to 21 over three times. All three times they’ve lost the next game. Hopefully they’ll get one or two more chances and eventually punch through.
Pitch Counts:
- Rays: 136, 38 BF
- Cubs: 143, 40 BF
The Rays check in at 15.11 pitches per inning and the Cubs 15.88. The Cubs face two more batters. A lot of signs how close the game was. Interesting because the Rays pounded out 14 hits. They only drew one walk and that served Cub pitching pretty well. Three doubles, a triple and two homers. It’s frankly amazing the Rays didn’t put up more than five runs. The Cubs turned a double play and picked off a runner. But the big deal was the Rays leading eight and being 2-12 with runners in scoring position.
The Cubs used four relievers. The highest pitch count was 17. This game itself won’t keep anyone from being available Sunday or later over this 10 game stretch. But Drew Pomeranz and Porter Hodge and Brad Keller threw two straight games. The Cub bullpen might be a little short Sunday.
Three Stars:
- Moisés Ballesteros had a solo homer (his first MLB homer), drew a walk (intentional) and scored twice. A day he’ll never forget.
- Nico Hoerner had a single, double, stolen base and a run scored. The average creeps up to .297. He needs at least another hot week to make the last week of the season interesting on multiple levels for him.
- Dansby Swanson had a two-run double and drew a walk. He also stole a base. 22 homers, 16 steals, a 101 wRC+ and often not appreciated by Cub fans. Oh yeah, really, really good defense at arguably the most important position on the field.
Game 148, September 13: Rays 5, Cubs 4 (84-64)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.390). 1-3, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, SB
- Hero: Willi Castro (.182). 0-1, BB
- Sidekick: Caleb Thielbar (.086). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Matt Shaw (-.390). 0-4
- Goat: Brad Keller (-.307). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, BB, ER (L 4-2)
- Kid: Porter Hodge (-.150). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, ER, 2 K
WPA Play of the Game: Nick Fortes homered off of Brad Keller leading off the ninth inning, giving the Rays the lead and ultimately the win. (.342)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch hit a solo homer in the bottom of the seventh with two outs, briefly giving the Cubs a one run lead. (.243)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Ian Happ with 91 out of 123 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd/Shōta Imanaga +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Cade Horton +15.5
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Dansby Swanson -17.33
- Ben Brown -19
- Carson Kelly -21
- Seiya Suzuki -29
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) win (Cubs up 3.5). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 8.5; Mets max is 89 wins). Giants lose (Cubs up 9; Giants max is 89 wins). Reds lost (Cubs up 10; Reds max is 88 wins). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 6 with 14 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers won (Cubs down 6.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants/Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: The third and final game of the series, winner takes the series. Shōta Imanaga (9-7, 3.21, 129 IP) makes his 23rd start for the Cubs. He hasn’t been bad this year, but has continually felt just a little off. He’s 1-3 with a 3.13 over his last seven starts (46 IP). So consistency hasn’t really been the problem. All seven of those starts are quality starts. If he can give them one more, I think they’ll close out this series with a win.
Adrian Houser (8-4, 3.11, 107 IP) makes the 19th start of his season. The 32-year-old righty is known to the Cubs best for his many years with the Brewers, but he was originally a second round pick of the Astros in 2011 (69th overall). He’s 2-2 with a 4.93 over his last seven (38.1 IP) and so he’s stumbling a bit down the stretch. The Cubs actually saw him earlier this year with the White Sox in his last start before the trade deadline (July 25). Adrian was the winner that day, allowing three runs on five hits, three walks and a hit batter over 6.2 innings of work.
It isn’t pitching in Tampa that has derailed Houser’s season. Five of his seven starts have been on the road, though the two home starts have seen him allow eight total runs over 13.1 innings of work. He gets deep into games, the Cubs have to beat Houser to win probably. It would be great if Imanaga can pitch into the seventh and shorten this one up for the bullpen.
