The last few months of the Giannis Antetokounmpo saga in Milwaukee have played out like a girl picking a flower, wondering whether her crush loves her or not.
It’s been the worst-kept secret in the NBA.
One of the best players in basketball has been the victim of poor roster construction around him for the past four seasons. Since winning the NBA Finals in 2021, the Bucks have perennially flamed out in the first round, and with Antetokounmpo’s athletic prime not lasting forever, the overtly loyal superstar has allowed his eyes to wander.
It was speculated all offseason that Antetokounmpo would finally demand a trade and leave Milwaukee, but after weeks of speculation while the Greek Freak was back home, the two sides appeared to be ready to go into 2025-26 in lockstep.
The sunshine and rainbows that the NBA world was sold weren’t quite accurate. It was revealed on October 7 that Giannis was, in fact, not happy. He was irked by the team’s ruthless waive-and-stretch of future Hall of Famer Damian Lillard and wasn’t sold on their future. In discussions to potentially explore a trade, Giannis pointed in the direction of the city that never sleeps. The Knicks and Bucks discussed a trade in August, but partially due to the Knicks’ extending Mikal Bridges and their draft pick deficit, it never materialized.
Of course, these rumors were denied relentlessly by Antetokounmpo and the Bucks, trying to avoid a distraction in a franchise-altering season. They got off to a strong start, buoyed by the emergence of Ryan Rollins and a motivated Giannis, who loudly proclaimed during a big win against the Knicks: “This is my city.”
They started 4-1 and were 8-5 by November 14. But when Giannis went down with an ankle sprain, the supporting cast collapsed without him. With him now out with a minor calf strain, the Bucks have lost 10 of their last 12 games. The rumors re-ignited to start December, with Shams Charania making it sound like a formal trade request could be more inevitable than it may have seemed:
Of course, this reignited talks about his apparent desire to play in New York. While some reports say that, without a no-trade clause, Antetokounmpo wouldn’t be able to control where he wants to go, others suggest that it’s possible that, by using his contract leverage (player option in 2027-28), the Greek Freak could force his way to the Knicks.
There’s been some backtracking in the days since, with Giannis (speaking through Chris Haynes) publicly remaining bought into the Bucks’ vision and Brian Windhorst saying there’s been no formal trade request, but the writing is on the wall. He just turned 31, and the Bucks are directionless.
But can the Knicks actually get the white whale of all white whales? Despite their pick deficit, their lack of appealing assets, and their seemingly empty cupboards? Well, it depends on Giannis himself and how much the Bucks respect the best player to ever wear their colors.
If Giannis wants to be traded, he will be traded. It would be an unbridled disaster to let him walk for nothing in the 2027 offseason, even if he’ll be 32, pushing 33, when that happens. If he has no intentions of retiring in Milwaukee, it would be gross negligence by general manager Jon Horst to not recoup value. You know how stupid the Angels and Arte Moreno look for holding onto Shohei Ohtani and letting him waltz to Tinseltown in free agency?
But without a no-trade clause, the Bucks don’t have to trade Antetokounmpo wherever he wants. I’m sure he could try to politick his way wherever, but I don’t think he’d despise a trade to the Lakers, the Rockets, or the Spurs, playing alongside superstars like Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, and Victor Wembanyama. Those teams, especially the latter two, could cobble together a package that easily dwarfs any Knicks offer.
The only way this is possible is if Giannis goes scorched earth. It does not seem like him at all, but if Antetokounmpo tells the Bucks that he will only go to the Knicks and threatens not to extend with any other franchise, it would open a pathway for the two teams to make a trade. It might not even be that dire, considering the Bucks and Knicks talked in August.
If Antetokounmpo requests a trade and the Bucks are openly shopping him before the trade deadline in just under three months, however, the Knicks will not be among those seriously bidding for his services.
Not that there’s no interest, of course. It’s just not logistically possible, barring something strange. Not only would a midseason blockbuster drop a nuclear bomb on a locker room that seems to be growing more cohesive by the day, the pieces just don’t add up.
Bridges is not eligible to be traded until February 1. While this allows the two-way wing to be traded before the deadline, it creates a narrow window that hinders potential trade negotiations over the next three months. The biggest pitfall, however, lies in the draft pick situation.
Now, the Bucks won’t be solely prioritizing draft compensation in the event they move off Antetokounmpo, barring a very specific destination. They do not have control over any of their first-round draft picks until 2031, as the trades for Lillard and Jrue Holiday are coming home to roost. They’ll need to at least stay competent to avoid bottoming out and giving a high draft pick to another team.
That said, they’ll definitely want some draft compensation, and the Knicks do not have a tradable unprotected first-round pick. That, however, can change come June. Once the 2026 NBA Draft passes, the Knicks will be able to trade the rights to whoever they select. They will also have their 2033 first-round pick unlocked, but trading it would hard cap the team at the second apron and likely cost the team Mitchell Robinson in free agency (if he isn’t traded prior).
All of this is to say that, regardless of what scenarios are posted online, there’s no realistic possibility of getting this done this season. After all, the Knicks probably want to see what this version of the roster under Mike Brown looks like in the playoffs before considering a seismic trade. If this trade is to ever be completed, it would, almost certainly, involve a third team as well.
In summary, we’ll reconvene in June.
