While beating two teams in the 80s in NET ranking comfortably but not convincingly this week might not seem like much, those kinds of workmanlike wins are necessary to maintain a high seed. Look around at what else happened this week, and we can appreciate the Illini’s effort more.
There was no shame in Iowa State losing to Kansas at Phog Allen but following that up with a loss at Cincinnati (NET 71) has them falling from the second overall seed all the way to the last 3-seed. Vanderbilt also saw
their surprising undefeated run end to a Texas team currently sitting outside the field, and a second loss on the week (home against Florida) drops them from serious contention for a 1-seed to the 3-line. North Carolina is going is going to petition the ACC to get rid of the new California schools, after dropping both games in the Bay area to Cal and Stanford and falling to a 7-seed.
Conference basketball with quick turnarounds, familiarity and hostile crowds is a breeding ground for surprising upsets, and so far, Illinois has been able to steer clear of them and keep stacking wins.
Although the Illini only move up one spot on the seed line, from the fourth 3-seed to the third 3-seed, it actually creates a bit of a dream scenario for the Illini (outside of winning the Big Ten and a 1-seed for themselves of course). Michigan State passes Illinois, as their blowout wins over Indiana and Washington hold more weight than the Illini wins and push their metrics past Illinois. In this scenario, it is actually a good thing as Michigan State becomes the fourth Big Ten school to be seeded, forcing them into the remaining open bracket without a Big Ten team, the West, and allowing Illinois to go to their preferred regional, the Midwest in Chicago.
The good news doesn’t stop there, as Iowa State’s aforementioned skid puts them just below Illinois on the seed line, allowing Illinois to take Saint Louis as the host of their opening weekend games. A Saint Louis-Chicago-Indianapolis path to the Championship is highly unlikely to happen without being the top team in the Big Ten, but the stars are aligned for that path right now.
West (San Jose)
- Arizona (San Diego)
- Gonzaga (Portland)
- Michigan State (Buffalo)
- Alabama (Tampa Bay)
- Texas Tech
- Saint John’s
- Utah State
- Iowa
- Saint Mary’s
- Auburn
- Santa Clara/Mizzou
- Murray State
- Utah Valley
- Wright State
Notes on The Region:
Let’s dedicate this region as the mid-major’s last hurrah. As of now, only seven mid majors would make the field without winning their conference tournament, and four of them are in this region, including all three West Coast Conference teams. Last year, only four mid-majors received at-large bids, the fewest since 2018, and none made the second weekend. Between the power conferences picking up the best mid-major teams (Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, etc.) and the transfer portal and NIL killing the continuity that made those less talented teams dangerous, it seems like this trend is likely to continue. After the Pac-12 takes Gonzaga and the best of the Mountain West next year, it looks like for basketball we will have four power conferences (Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC), two semi-power conferences (Pac 12 and Big East, which each boast one perennial title contender in Gonzaga and UConn, and a few other teams that will make the tourney year to year) and then the mid-major conferences who will be lucky to get two bids most years (the weakened Mountain West, WCC, MVC, and Atlantic 10).
Getting off my soapbox to look at the actual matchups, Gonzaga and Utah State in the second round would be a preview of the new-look Pac-12 next year. Utah State forces a lot of turnovers and would be my pick for most dangerous mid-major, non-Gonzaga category. Between Mark Few, Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino, this quarter of the draw has three coaches on retirement watch who could knock each other out.
The Alabama and Texas Tech second round would pit two of Illinois’ top non-conference opponents this year against each other. That game would be an interesting contrast of styles, between Alabama’s three-point barrage (36 attempts per game, first in the country) and JT Toppin’s dominant interior game. Winner gets a rematch with Arizona, as Alabama got torn apart by Arizona earlier this year and the Red Raiders will play them in February.
East (Washington D.C.)
- Duke (Greenville)
- Purdue (Saint Louis)
- Iowa State (Portland)
- Florida (Tampa Bay)
- Kansas
- Villanova
- Tennessee
- Georgia
- USC
- Seton Hall
- Miami (OH)
- McNeese
- Troy
- North Dakota State
Notes on the Region:
This is the rematch bracket. On the bottom half, Matt Painter has knocked Rick Barnes out in close wins in the Sweet 16 (2019) and the Elite Eight (2024). The trilogy happens early this time, as Tennessee has really struggled to get big wins this season, having just blown a game at home to Kentucky. If Purdue can get past the Vols, they would have a chance to avenge the bludgeoning Iowa State gave Purdue in Mackey earlier this year.
Duke moves up to the second overall seed after notching two more Quad 1 wins this week on the road at Stanford and Cal, giving them five quad 1A wins, and eight quad 1 wins total, both top in the country. Two of those Quad 1A wins came against Florida and Kansas in the non-conference season, and they could get either one of them again in the Sweet Sixteen. Cam Boozer against Darryn Peterson for the Elite Eight and the No. 1 pick would be an ideal matchup for CBS.
Midwest (Chicago)
- Michigan (Buffalo)
- Houston (Oklahoma City)
- Illinois (Saint Louis)
- Virginia (Philadelphia)
- Arkansas
- UCF
- Saint Louis
- SMU
- Kentucky
- San Diego State
- New Mexico/Virginia Tech
- Liberty
- Yale
- UNC-Wilmington
Notes on the Region:
Beyond lucking into the St. Louis and Chicago sites, this really is a great draw for the Illini. UNC-Wilmington dominates the low major level by owning a huge advantage on rebounds, but Illinois is able to put up similar dominant rebounding rates against much bigger and stronger opponents. UCF has a solid resume with no bad losses and a win over Kansas, but their predictive metrics say they are a much worse team than a six-seed. Like UNC-Wilmington, they win by getting offensive rebounds but also don’t do it as well as Illinois does. If an upset occurs in the first round, Amani Hansberry and Chester Frazier could be very motivated to knock off the Illini.
In the Sweet 16, another tourney game against Kelvin Sampson and Houston would be lined up. Like always, they are defensively nasty, with Jojo Tugler perhaps being the best defender in the country. This year, they also have a game breaking freshman phenom in Kingston Flemings.
If Illinois manages to get past the Cougars, another matchup with Michigan and Morez Johnson looms. I am going to assume Illinois makes it a dozen straight wins against the Wolverines (assuming a regular season and Big Ten tournament win as well). Then again, if Illinois actually is sitting on 11 straight wins against Michigan, there is a decent chance their seeds are flipped from where they are now.
South (Houston)
- UConn (Philadelphia)
- Nebraska (Oklahoma City)
- Vanderbilt (Greenville)
- BYU (San Diego)
- Clemson
- Louisville
- North Carolina
- Miami
- Wisconsin
- Texas A&M
- Ohio State
- FAU
- Hawaii
- High Point
Notes on the Region:
This Nebraska run really is incredible. I’d expect them to reach 20-0 (9-0) before their legitimacy as a potential Big Ten champion and Final Four dark horse gets put to the test; after games against Washington and Minnesota this week, three of their next four are at Michigan, the Illinois rematch, and against Purdue. If they go 2-1 in those three games, they’ll officially prove they belong this high. In this bracket, they get a Sweet 16 matchup against fellow surprise contender Vanderbilt.
Don’t look now, but Wisconsin actually might sneak into the Big Ten title race. They have survived all the Big Ten games they should win, and already have games against Michigan, Purdue, and Nebraska out of the way. Of the top five Big Ten teams, Purdue is the only one they have to double play. In typical Greg Gard fashion, expect them to sneak their way into a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament, and then lose in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. They will see familiar faces against Miami, who are led by former Indiana player Malik Reneau and former Michigan player Tre Donaldson.
Interesting bracket quirk that the 5-8 seeds are all from the ACC. Bruce Thornton and Ohio State sneak into the bracket and draw a Louisville team that looks dangerous but keeps losing in a border war game. Nico Moretti and FAU take over the American Conference automatic qualifying spot for now. That conference tournament should be interesting this year as Memphis isn’t as strong as normal, and four or five teams should have a chance to win their conference tournament.
First Four Out: NC State, Indiana, George Mason, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: Stanford, Baylor, UCLA, Texas
Bids By Conference:
SEC: 10
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 4
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 3
