It’s Friday and that means it’s time to open up the mailbag and answer some of your questions. You all always bring it with great questions on Monday and I hope we’re able to do them justice.
This week we talked Dana White, Gable Steveson and did some fun fantasy matchmaking. Check all that out below!
Distracted Dana
Question: Will Dana regret leaving the UFC behind to focus entirely on Eddie Hearn boxing? It just seems like Dana can longer answer simple UFC related questions and only cares about boxing. How does
this play out? (King7)
Andrew Richardson: It probably plays out with the UFC suffering a lack of draws and putting together cards that nobody cares about … wait!
Alex Behunin: Funny enough, this past Tuesday, I just asked someone close to Dana if he was completely checked out from UFC and they said – “Do not believe that narrative. Sure, he isn’t super enthusiastic as he once was and doesn’t know 500 of the 800 fighters on the roster, but he cares”
Basically, he has a well-oiled machine and that he doesn’t need to sell anymore.
(I’m not sure I entirely believe this)
Jesse Holland: I don’t think he will have a single regret. Even if he left today, what else is there for him to accomplish? UFC went from $2 million in the red to $7 billion in the black in less than 20 years with Dana at the wheel. He may be a slimy cockroach in his personal life, but you can’t argue with his success – which doubled after the Fertittas stepped down.
Tim Edwards: I think it’s pretty clear that Dana’s focus is Dana right now. That’s always been the case, but the UFC was the vehicle to making him a household name a decade ago. He’s gone as far as you can go as an MMA promoter now. And, to be honest, it’s pretty amazing how influential he has managed to become by making the UFC’s brand all about him. Now, to advance his stature and thus his wealth, he has to focus on bigger fish, such as deals with the US government and all the Saudi money in boxing.
Things have all worked for him thus far. And think that’s an indictment on where we are as a society right now. But I’m wondering if the path forwards might be a little tougher. Trump won’t be around forever, either in office or on this planet. The new power brokers, who might have a big say in things like anti-trust and the Ali Act, might not be his buddies. And there are murmurings that Saudi’s PLE fund isn’t the bottomless money pit we have assumed (especially as the world continues to shift electric vehicles — many powered by Chinese super batteries). Dana has been the gopher for Turki Al Sheikh thus far, hoping that pays off big for him in the future. But if the sands shift, and he doesn’t have Donny or Turki to back him up… I think we’ll see him get a lot more involved in promoting things like Silva vs. Wang.
Worst Ever?
Q: Is Silva vs Cong the worst title fight since Nico Montano & Roxanne Modafferi fought for the division’s vacant title? Only thing that comes close in my mind is Dern vs Jandridoba 2. (Jack Reacharound)
Andrew Richardson: Honestly, it’s not a bad fight for the division. Silva is clearly one of the best new faces at 125, and Wang Cong is a legitimate kickboxer who’s fun to watch. It’s more of a terrible main event than a bad title fight — there’s zero name value. It should be reasonably fun to watch!
Alex Behunin: I’d argue Volk vs. Lopes 2 is worse but Silva vs. Cong is pretty bad.
Jesse Holland: You’re all a bunchy of whiny boobs. If you like MMA then you like this card. If you like MMA stars and dramatic backstories, you probably don’t. The end of PPV price tags pretty much zapped any complaints on my end.
Tim Edwards: The Montana title fight/non-existent run is hard to match. I hate to bag on women’s MMA so much, since right now there are a lot of exciting fighters at the lower weight classes, but Pennington vs. Bueno Silva and Pena were pretty awful, too. I’m also not super mad at this fight. I think it’s the best they could do in this division and it’s better than just leaving the title dormant.
More on Gable Sleepson
Q: Was Sean Sharaf knockout over Gable Steveson the biggest upset of the year or the result of many fans believing the hype? (VeeDrawStuff)
Andrew Richardson: Both? I mean, Sharaf was 0-2 in the UFC against an Olympic gold medalist. By all rights, he should have lost. At the same time, Sharaf did land good shots on both of his previous UFC opponents, and we didn’t yet have any proof that Gable could take a punch. A more moderate level of favorite would’ve been appropriate.
Alex Behunin: I think it’s a little of the both. Sharaf was hand-picked to get obliterated – I mean he was supposed to fight Tai Tuivasa earlier this year to get Tai a win.
Jesse Holland: Casey at the bat? Sean Sharaf was 0-2 in UFC and got knocked out by Junior Tafa and Steven Asplund while Steveson – an Olympic gold medalist – was out there scoring first-round knockouts and looking sensational. The hype was warranted, he just fumbled the bag.
Tim Edwards: I’m a big proponent in that the odds have gone wild in the last few years and that’s why we’re getting so many ‘shocking upsets!’ More on that in the next question.
Wild Odds
Q: What do you make of the increasing frequency of these freakish odds? Between Mir (probably the worst of all), Gable, Orolbai, and the general year of the underdog, it seems like a lot of oddsmakers and betting fans have totally lost the plot. Is the prevalence of Gen-Z gambling app addiction to blame? Is the UFC more popular than ever, and is pulling in more casual bettors? It’s really getting out of hand when you have a -2000 on the prelims who gets smoked in under a round. As someone who does not bet, it makes no sense at all to me. (Casual_Monk)
Andrew Richardson: I blame the rise of Kalshi and prediction markets, which make it easier for hype trains to run wild. Orolbai is a great prospect, sure, but why was he such a historic favorite over a fighter with a strong UFC record in Jeremiah Wells? That guy is good. Nobody in his weight class should be a 13-1 favorite over an athletic finisher with a 5-2 UFC record. Makes no sense!
Jesse Holland: Sportsbooks will never lose money. Never. Ever. Once you understand that, you’ll understand how this game is played. Why do you think casinos advertise their own losses? “This King Tut slot machine just paid Karen McBarren $250,000 and a lifetime coupon for the Treasure Island buffet!” It’s all a work. Bookie-busting upsets, inflated betting lines, canceled bets … no such thing as bad publicity.
Tim Edwards: Yep, I said this last week. I used to do a column here where I would track the line changes on PPVs over time and report on how public money was influencing the betting. I used BestFightOdds to figure that out. But as soon as that site started including Kalshi and Polymarket in their averages I had to stop. The odd movement on those prediction markets were so volatile that the line changes became extreme for almost every fight. So it was too hard to tell if the line movement was because lots of people were betting on a certain set of odds or if it was just because Kalshi/Polymarket set their own line that was drastically different from what Vegas had. I suspect those markets are using AI to set their odds and that might be part of the reason why they were so different from traditional bookmakers. The traditional bookmakers have to change their lines, though, in order to keep up with those prediction markets (or else they’ll lose customers).
That change happened earlier this year. After I packed in that line movement column I needed something new to do… that’s why we have a mailbag feature now.
Yummy Mains
Q: If you had to put together a main card with only unranked matchups, what’s the best card you could put together right now? (cavemanoncomputer)
Alex Behunin:
- Michael Chandler vs. Drew Dober
- Ethyn Ewing vs. Rob Font
- Cody Haddon vs. Victory Henry
- Tommy McMillen vs. Losene Keita
- Daniil Donchenko vs. Jacobe Smith
- Steven Asplund vs. Gable Steveson
Andrew Richardson: Alex is great at this. I’ll add Marcio Barbosa vs. Lokdog (no longer ranked) as a guaranteed Featherweight banger.
Jesse Holland: I’m terrible at this, sorry.
Tim Edwards: I’m looking at the Media Rankings for this. And I’m looking for great fights for an amazing one-night only show. I don’t care about building guys up to a title shot or name value (since we don’t need to sell PPVs anymore).
First thing I would do is take Ateba Gautier and Damian Pinas off this weekend’s card and make them fight each other. Then I’d do a rematch of Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola. Next I’ll go with Yousri Belgaroui vs. Ryan Gandra. Next give me Daniil Donchenko vs. Mytybek Orolbai I feel like I need some heavyweights in there, too… so… let’s open the show with Robelis Despaigne and Jhonata Diniz. We’ll borrow OKTAGON’s Stand ‘n Bang rule-set for that one.
Here’s how that looks in a tidy list:
- Ateba Gautier vs. Damian Pinas
- Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola 2
- Yousri Belgaroui vs. Ryan Gandra
- Daniil Donchenko vs. Myktbek Orolbai
- Robelis Despaigne vs. Jhonata Diniz
Mt. Rushmore of Coaches
Q: We often debate the Mt Rushmore of fighters. But, how would you rank the Mt. Rushmore of coaches? I think Trevor Whitman gets the George Washington spot. (Fighting_From_The_Couch)
Alex Behunin: Greg Jackson, Javier Mendez, Ray Longo, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov/Firas Zahabi
Andrew Richardson: I’m thinking in terms of dynasties, total champions crowned, and long-term success, so: Greg Jackson, Javier Mendes, Mike Brown, André Pederneiras … debatably Pat Miletich could be in there as well? MFS definitely ruled the 2000s.
Jesse Holland: Okay this is a long one for me. Javier Mendez became the first MMA coach with three UFC fighters holding titles at once: Cain Velasquez, Daniel Cormier, and Luke Rockhold. Greg Jackson (with the help of Mike Winkeljohn) gave us UFC champions Jon Jones, Rashad Evans, Holly Holm, and Andrei Arlovski (plus interim champion Carlos Condit). Trevor Wittman is responsible for the title reigns of Kamaru Usman, Rose Namajunas, and Justin Gaethje. Lastly, Pat Miletich coached Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver, Tim Sylvia, Robbie Lawler, and Dave Menne to UFC titles from a small gym in Iowa. So, Mendez, Jackson, Wittman, and Miletich. I would give an honorable mention to Ray Longo for UFC champions Matt Serra, Chris Weidman, and Aljamain Sterling.
Tim Edwards: My real answer includes all the names above. So I’ll do the whatever the opposite of Mt. Rushmore would be and put Edmond Tarverdyan, Josh Fabia, Steven Seagal and Mike Perry’s girlfriend up there.
Name Your Faves
Q: Who are your top 3 favorite fighters from any era and any weight class? (NOT who you think are the best fighters, just your favorites). (Adam Wagner)
Andrew Richardson: Excluding the athletes I am fortunate enough to know personally, my three favorite fighters of all time would be Frankie Edgar, Forrest Griffin, and Fedor Emelianenko.
Alex Behunin: Jon Jones, Brock Lesnar, Chuck Liddell – Chuck got me into the sport, I loved Brock from WWF, and prime Jon Jones was just spectacular.
Jesse Holland: I came up watching PRIDE and K-1 so not surprisingly, my favorites are Fedor Emelianenko, Mirko Filipovic, and Bob Sapp. I know “The Beast” became a punchline (and a punching bag) later in his career, but his K-1 run in the early aughts was must-see TV. One of the best live experiences I ever had was at the sold-out Saitama Super Arena in Japan. Bananas.
Tim Edwards: The boring answer is Georges St-Pierre, Jose Aldo and Anderson Silva. Watching the peak of their careers is what made me both a fan and a writer in this sport. For deeper cuts, though, I’m going to say Damian Maia, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Lyoto Machida. All did things I really enjoyed seeing in the cage. And the Joanna Violence period was a lot of fun, even if it was way too short.
Quick hits
Q: Imanol v Coria feels like another interesting fight between two real young prospects, like McMillen v Rahiki recently. What other fights would you like to see between genuine prospects? (Neiljohnson37)
Andrew Richardson: I’d like to see Ateba Gautier tested versus a fellow up-and-comer like Baisangur Susurkaev rather than further softballs.
Alex Behunin: Ateba Gautier vs. Damien Pinas (both are on SLC), Cody Haddon vs. Ethyn Ewing, Bilal Hasan vs. Jose Ochoa, Islam Dulatov vs. Jacobe Smith
Q: How much more money do you think Qatar is paying the UFC to hold an event there vs. Salt Lake City? cuz clearly they got a way better card (with a lot more notice). (LoneCowboy)
Alex Behunin: The Middle East does pay a lot more money for cards, but SLC sure did pay a pretty penny for a numbered card. UFC tried to make Paulo vs. Jiri in the main event and were confident it was going to happen, and when it didn’t, they got left with this dogshit main event.
Jesse Holland: I love to bag on UFC whenever the opportunity presents itself but they went into Salt Lake City with an entirely different lineup (like Paulo-Jiri) and this is one of those rare instances where everything went wrong at once – including Valentina’s absence – with no time to pivot.
Q: Why oh why do they throw these lazy jabs at each other FROM 12 FEET AWAY? Like it’s obviously not going to connect and they will do it the entire fight. (see perez/dumont for perfect example but it happens all the time, mostly in wmma). I get that the jab is your range finder, but when you are so far away it’s not even close, what is the point? (LoneCowboy)
Andrew Richardson: Female fighters more commonly struggle with their distance and range. Michelle Waterson made a career of hitting the air three feet in front of her opponent. Don’t ask me to explain why it is this way; I like my job.
Jesse Holland: We need that Matt Riddle GIF in here. In fairness, technical striking is the hardest thing to learn in fighting, that’s why boxing is called the “sweet science.” It’s an actual science and some folks can master it while others just flail about. I dunno, I think the far-away jab is the MMA equivalent of slowly wading into cold water.
