UNC stands at 4-4 on the season. After going toe-to-toe with #1 Miami last Saturday, UNC fans rightly wonder if the team has turned a corner and can run the table to reverse last season’s 4-8 embarrassment. That effort starts against the UConn Huskies, a team that lost the entirety of its coaching staff and most of its roster following last season. UNC fans have penciled this one in as a win since Labor Day, but that was also true of Syracuse. At press time, UConn’s a 6.5-point underdog, a slight
improvement in the Huskies’ odds over the week. This game could be closer than many expect.
What can UNC fans look for when UNC faces off against UConn in Hartford?
Which UNC offense shows up?
It could be argued UNC’s two best games of the season were both losses, unexpectedly competitive efforts against Miami and Notre Dame. It could also be argued the two worst efforts came against Clemson and Syracuse, two flawed teams ranked behind UNC in the efficiency metrics. In both of those games, UNC jumped to big leads, sat on them, and let those two orange teams (boo orange) steal it at the end.
On paper, UConn will be the weakest FBS opponent UNC faces this season. SP+ rates the Huskies 71st, FEI rates them 91st, and FPI rates them 92nd. The offense rates as average, and the defense rates as abysmal. For comparison, UConn’s defensive ratings fall in the same territory as Gene Chizik’s worst efforts. A UNC offense that scored touchdowns on five of seven possessions against a vastly superior Miami defense should feast. Right?
It should, but against Clemson and Syracuse, the offense went dormant after a fast start and allowed both of those opponents to catch their breath and start a comeback. UNC’s offense needs to win this game, which means staying aggressive rather than trying to run clock and shorten the game once the Tar Heels have a two possession lead.
Can UNC’s defense get off the field?
North Carolina now ranks 123rd nationally in 3rd down conversions allowed after finishing last season at 104th. UNC ranks 48th in 4th down conversions allowed, which is much better than last season, but consider this: UNC ranks 128th in the nation in the number of 4th down attempts it faces. At this point, it’s clear that opponents come into games planning to go for it on 4th down as often as they can. Syracuse went for it on 4th down seven times, converting four of them, the biggest reason the Orange left Chapel Hill with a W.
UNC’s “bend-don’t-break” strategy keeps the defense on the field and wears itself down. Yes, the offense needs to needs to keep cooking and sustain drives, but UNC’s defense exposes itself to a lot of plays by intent and design. UConn has nothing to lose in this game, so expect the Huskies to try to take advantage of that by setting itself up for a high number of fourth down attempts, extending drives, and wearing down UNC’s front seven over the course of the game. It would also keep UConn’s best unit – the offense – on the field and its Chizikian defense on the sidelines.
Connecticut will be UNC’s fifth game in five weeks, the halfway point of nine games in nine weeks. The starters in the front seven play a high percentage of snaps. The UNC defense has faced over 300 snaps in the last four games alone. That strategy could work.
Can UConn match what it accomplished against Syracuse?
UConn lost to Syracuse in OT. UNC lost to Syracuse in OT. Syracuse’s offense was slightly less effective against UNC than it was against UConn, averaging 6 yards per play against the Huskies and 5.5 yards per play against UNC. On the other hand, UConn’s offense averaged 6.7 yards per play against the Orange, while UNC managed 5.4 yards per play.
No, Steve Angeli did not play against UConn, but that’s because he got benched after disastrous play against Cal and Pitt. Yes, Syracuse took down SMU last weekend with Angeli at the helm. But, Amari Odom, who did play against UConn before being injured late, remains statistically the Orange’s best QB.
UConn has a dangerous QB of their own, and UNC’s brand of football tends to keep games close. That’s a feature against an opponent like Miami but potentially a bug against an underdog at home with nothing to lose.
What are your thoughts about the opponent Saturday? What will you be looking for?
