Game Info
When | 12:00 p.m. CT
Where | Humphrey Coliseum; Starkville, MS
TV | SEC Network
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 50.0% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (19-9, 9-6 SEC)
G: T.O. Barrett (SO, 8.8 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 14.1 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (JR, 10.7 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.4 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.3 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 9.0 PPG)
Mississippi State (13-15, 5-10 SEC)
F: Achor Achor (SR, 6.4 PPG)
C: Quincy Ballard (SR, 6.3 PPG)
G: Jayden Epps (SR, 14.0 PPG)
G: Shawn Jones Jr. (SR, 5.4 PPG)
G: Josh Hubbard
(JR, 21.6 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Ja’Borri McGhee (SR, 8.1 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Mississippi State …. again??
At the end of January both these teams met up at Mizzou Arena and the Tigers captured a five-point win. The victory was overshadowed due to the tragic injury of Annor Boateng but the win propelled them to a three game win streak.
Since the loss to Mizzou, the Bulldogs have picked up two wins against Ole Miss and Auburn. However, they’ve also dropped four games to No. 21 Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina and most recently a 25-point defeat No. 17 Alabama on Wednesday night. It will be a tough turnaround for State to host the Tigers on Saturday.
But how have the Bulldogs fared the rest of the season and what does the team look like?
From last year’s tournament team, only two significant contributors returned to the team, one of which was guard Josh Hubbard who is currently averaging a team-leading 21.6 points per game.
In the portal, the team nabbed some big names from multiple different leagues. Starting with offensive powerhouse Jayden Epps from Georgetown, UAB’s Ja’Borri McGhee who plays the role of a sixth man, Achor Achor from Kansas State and starter Quincy Ballard from Wichita State. Other than the portal, Bulldogs head coach Chris Jans also took players from Europe: top-100 recruit Jamarion Davis-Fleming and Sergej Macura.
Speaking of Jans, an On3 report said the head coach leaving Mississippi State after this season is “considered conceivable”. The first three seasons at the helm the Bulldogs made the tournament but it doesn’t look like the trend will continue this year.
Jeff Borzello in an ESPN article said, “Mississippi State is considered one of the worst jobs in the SEC, so it’s conceivable he could look to jump to another high-major program with the right fit.
Currently, the Bulldogs sit at 12th in the Southeastern Conference and the sights on a SEC tournament run or a March Madness bid are slipping away by the day. The team only has five conference wins and only two of those occurred on home court.
Three Keys to the Game
Minimize Hubbard
The star of the Bulldogs, Josh Hubbard, has been the top scorer for the team for more than half the games this season. The entire offense runs through the guard. Only two players on the team average double digits points per game: Hubbard and Epps. While Epps averages 14 points, Hubbard is a step above at north of twenty points per game.
He shoots above thirty percent from beyond the arc and 41.8 percent from field goal range. If the Tigers are able to maintain the dominance of Hubbard, it will be difficult for the Bulldogs to curate points on the board.
Win the Perimeter
While the Tigers aren’t always lethal from three, they need to take advantage against Mississippi State.
Mizzou averages 35 percent from beyond the arc and sit smack in the middle of the conference rankings. Meanwhile State sits at fourteenth in the league. Now last game, the Tigers did not knock down a single three until the second half but in the first appearance against Mississippi State it was the offensive trait that proved to be the reason for the win.
State sits in the top half of the conference for defending the three-point shot so it will be tough for Mizzou to pull themselves out of a rough patch but it must be done. Its success from the perimeter could prove the difference once again.
Mizzou also loves to dominate the paint and if they can control another area of the floor it will be electric.
No More Turnovers
While Mizzou has been able to turn the tide with the persistance of turnovers, it will be another thing to be monitored on the road. Ball security away is always a greater point of emphasis. Additionally, State has only won two games at home this season, don’t give them another reason to try to obtain a third.
Letting the Bulldogs have extra possessions in a home environment can quickly swing the momentum, making it more crucial for Mizzou to limit mistakes, protect the ball and play a cleaner brand of basketball on the road.
Tennessee was able to capture 20 second chance points, mainly stemming from rebounds, but only obtained four fastbreak points and seven points off turnovers. This will need to be replicated again this weekend to ensure an easily obtained victory.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Mizzou 80 – Mississippi State 70
ESPN has this match at a 50/50 standstill as of Thursday night. While the Tigers are moving off of the bubble conversation and heading towards a 10 seed, this will be a win they will want to take full advantage of.
A win Saturday afternoon would not only strengthen the resume but also help build momentum in a critical area of the season. Taking care of business against the Bulldogs is headed more towards a necessity. If Mizzou can control the tempo, protect the basketball, and execute its offense from all areas of the floor, they have a strong chance to seperate late in the second half and leave Starksville with the win.
