On the eve of the 2026 NBA Draft, the stage is set for excitement. The next several weeks will be full of drama and intrigue, with big name players expected to headline major trades.
A tantalizing crop of rookies will take center stage this week in what is considered a deep draft, headlined with potential franchise players. June ends and July begins with free agency, where multiple teams face important financial decisions. The 1st and 2nd aprons of the league’s salary cap are so punitive and restrictive,
it’s forcing the teams operating in those thresholds to move talent and reduce salary cap taxes.
The cherry on top for diehard fans is taking in Summer League to watch the newest, exciting young talent get their first taste of professional basketball.
As the offseason commences in earnest, let’s take a look at the Portland Trail Blazers and their situation heading into the summer.
Blazers Snapshot
The Portland Trail Blazers’ role this summer could range anywhere from being a main character, a supporting actor, or perhaps just making a well-placed cameo. There’s hope for action. The Blazers have been connected to high-level players potentially on the move. Rip City is ready for its closeup, Mr. DeMille.
Portland doesn’t have a pick in the upcoming draft. However, they are armed with the $15.1 million Mid-Level Exception and the $5.5 million Bi-Annual Exception to sign players in free agency, or to use as a vehicle to absorb players through trades.
The NBA’s salary cap for 2026-27 sits at $165 million. The tax line sits at $201M, with the first and second aprons set at $209M and $222M, respectively.
Here’s a look at the Blazers’ cap situation:
- Current payroll: $170,197,298 (Above the cap, $30,802,702 below the tax line)
- Free Agents: Robert Williams III, Matisse Thybelle, Blake Wesley (all unrestricted), and Caleb Love (restricted)
- Shaedon Sharpe ($20,089,287) and Toumani Camara ($18,080,358) begin the first seasons on their rookie extensions, and add trade value with reasonable 4-year contracts.
- Scoot Henderson is eligible for an extension until the last day before the regular season begins. Portland could work something out to lock up Scoot long-term or wait until next summer to let him hit restricted free agency.
- 12 players are currently under contract next season (14 is the league mandate)
- The Blazers have full control of all of their tradable 1st round picks 2027-2033.
Portland could favor continuity by re-signing their free agents, staying under the salary cap tax, and running back the roster that won 42 games. They’d add Damian Lillard, returning from an Achilles injury. 10 years ago this summer, they did exactly that, and it locked them into mediocrity. Both owner and General Manager are different this time. Will the results be?
The Blazers sit in a flexible situation where they can be patient by continuing to grow their young core, with veterans vacillating between supporting and doing heavy lifting. On the flip side, they have the assets to engage with the league’s biggest offseason trade activity. GM Joe Cronin has to weigh the cost of chasing a significant player who could expedite their quest for contention against hoping his chest of assets appreciates in value for a big swing in the future.
Fresh off a Stanley Cup win, owner Tom Dundon strikes me as someone who will want to make a splash in his first offseason. Especially after the team won the Play-In Tournament and gave the eventual Western Conference champions fits throughout the first round. While patience is a virtue, the return of a motivated franchise legend in Lillard along with a full cupboard of trade chips, the time is ripe for Portland to execute a major “win now” move.
Overall, the Blazers are in decent shape for where they are in their life cycle. They can gamble like drunken sailors to take us on a wild ride or sit tapping their fingers together like Mr. Burns — sipping on scotch in their secret underground lair while analyzing the trade, free agent, and draft prospect futures market in 2027-2030.
The NBA Landscape
Only three teams are expected to act as cap space teams this summer: The Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, and Los Angeles Lakers. Here are the quick hits on each.
- Chicago is giving new head coach Tiago Splitter almost a blank canvas. If they renounce all of their free agents (which include former Blazers Anfernee Simons and Zach Collins) they can make the most cap space at over $52M. As of today, the only players they are truly tethered to are Josh Giddey and Matus Buzelis. With the 4th and 15th picks in the draft, the Bulls finally hit the long overdue Rebuild Button. A new front office and coaching staff will hope to turn over a new leaf for a fanbase dying to return to glory.
- The Lakers can create up to $48M in cap space, but doing so would mean parting ways with LeBron James. The 42-year-old icon wants to see what kind of roster gets built around him. The first order of business is trying to re-sign guard Austin Reaves to a 5-year maximum contract worth $241M. If LeBron can accept a major discount, it would help give the Lakers room to have their pick of the NBA’s middle-class free agents, or re-sign their own. Lebron’s decision on if he’s going to stay in LA, retire, or take his talents elsewhere will be one of the summer’s biggest stories. While this team currently looks like a middleweight contender next season, never count out the Lakers with possible cap space and the shenanigans they can make happen.
- The Brooklyn Nets can generate about $47M in cap space. They sit in a weird spot. They spent the past two seasons actively tanking for a top pick, coming away with the 8th pick last year and the 6th pick tomorrow. That’s some bad lotto luck! Worse, they don’t have control of their 2027 and 2028 draft picks. Early reports say they want to focus towards competing next season, as there’s no incentive for them to lose. Forward Michael Porter Jr. will be a linchpin. If he doesn’t sign an extension this summer, he could be one of the bigger attainable stars on a $40.8M expiring contract. Their only other “win now” player is center Nic Claxton. His name is hot on the trade rumor mill. It’s very possible the Nets end up being the league’s salvage yard for bad contracts in exchange for picks once again.
Above Mid-Level Exception free agent targets for these teams:
- Austin Reaves (5-yrs, $241M with Lakers, or 4-yrs, $179M with Brooklyn or Chicago)
- Tari Eason (Restricted free agent to Houston, who can match any outside offer.)
- Walker Kessler (Restricted free agent to Utah, who has reportedly turned down a 5-yr, $140M offer from the Jazz.)
- Peyton Watson (Restricted free agent to Denver, a team bumped up close to the 2nd apron that needs to shed salary to afford him at his market value.)
- Quentin Grimes (should be at or near the top of full MLE candidates among unrestricted free agents. He’s young enough for a cap space team to outbid the full MLE market.)
Currently, these twelve teams are expected to have access to the full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. It’s a contract up to 4 years in length, starting at $15.1M.
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Charlotte Hornets
- Dallas Mavericks
- LA Clippers
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Milwaukee Bucks
- New Orleans Pelicans
- San Antonio Spurs
- Utah Jazz
- Washington Wizards
- Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks after handling their free agents
Competition will be fierce, as some free agents who are good targets for using part (or all) of the full MLE are expected to be re-signed by their incumbent teams using their Bird Rights. Here’s a list of Mid-Level exception major unrestricted targets this summer (incumbent team):
- Quentin Grimes (PHI)
- John Collins (LAC)
- Robert Williams III (POR)
- Colin Gillespie (PHX)
- Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI)
- Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
- Luke Kennard (LAL)
- Rui Hachimura (LAL)
- Nicola Vucevic (BOS)
- Coby White (CHA)
Some big names are likely on the move too. Milwaukee just passed the 51st anniversary of trading Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. To celebrate, it appears likely they are about to trade another once-in-a-lifetime player this summer. The Giannis Antetokounmpo “will he stay or will he go” saga is hopefully about to come to a merciful end. The Rip City faithful remain glued to the story, however, in hopes of landing a new leading man as a result of said trade.
Here are some other notable players expected to be on the trade block:
- Ja Morant
- Domantas Sabonis
- Myles Turner
- Cam Johnson
- Lu Dort
- Julius Randle
- Michael Porter Jr.
- Isaiah Joe
- Zach Lavine
- Demar Derozan
Division Rivals
The Oklahoma City Thunder go into the offseason projected to be well over the 2nd apron. They have the maximum of 15 players under contract next season. They also own the 12th and 17th picks in the upcoming draft. Something has to give. Dort and Joe, along with Isaiah Hartenstein and Kenrich Williams, could be salary cap casualties and traded. OKC will likely want to get under the 1st apron to regain flexibility and shave tens of millions off their tax bill. They will be one of the more active teams in the next couple weeks. GM Sam Presti has been lauded for his work building this juggernaut, now he’s going to be challenged in different ways to maintain it.
The Denver Nuggets are less than $3 million from the 2nd apron. They have 24-year-old restricted free agent guard Peyton Watson to make a decision on. He’s expected to garner significant interest on the free agent market, as a cap space team can offer him a contract that would make life miserable for the Nuggets to match. Forward Cameron Johnson is making $23 million on an expiring contract. Finding room for an extension for him looks unlikely. Denver may look to deal him for picks and take back as little salary as possible to help them absorb a new Watson deal. With Watson young enough to join a rebuild, it makes sense for both Chicago and Brooklyn to come calling. Since winning the championship in 2023, the Nuggets have been sliding backwards while getting more expensive.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been trying to break through the Western Conference, appearing in two of the last three western conference finals. They may have reached their ceiling with this roster, but they’ll have a tough time trying to improve it. Minnesota is currently $10.6 under the tax line. Free agent point guard Ayo Dosumnu is due a new contract. The team has announced that re-signing him is their offseason top priority. Julius Randle’s fit on the team has been called into question. Meanwhile starting guard Donte Divencenzo went down with an Achilles tear during the playoffs. He’ll miss all next season on an expiring contract. A more perfect trade may not exist than sending Randle, Divencenzo, and the Wolves’ #28 pick in this draft to the Memphis Grizzlies for the mercurial Ja Morant.
The Utah Jazz have an exciting summer ahead. With the #2 pick in the draft, they have a great chance to land a player who can drastically change their fortunes. It’s not off the table for them to try and trade for the #1 pick in order to select the locally-grown phenom AJ Dybantsa. Their big trade deadline move for forward Jaren Jackson Jr. will fully kick off next season as well. Things aren’t all rosy though, as restricted free agent center Walker Kessler has been reported as already turning down a 5-year, $140M contract. Keep that in mind. Donovan Clingan is two offseasons away from being in Kessler’s spot.
Portland Predictions
It should be a wild offseason and the Blazers figure to be an active part of it. I’ll end by tossing out a few Portland predictions.
- Milwaukee Forward Bobby Portis is traded into the Blazers’ Mid-Level Exception as a result of the fallout from the Giannis trade.
- Rob Williams III and Caleb Love are re-signed. Matisse Thybelle is renounced.
- Jerami Grant, Kris Murray, Blazers 2027 first round pick, and two future second round picks are sent to Brooklyn for Michael Porter, Jr.
What do you see happening with the Blazers and around the league this summer? Chime in below!
