Howdy and welcome back to Fun With Numbers, the weekly Good Bull Hunting deep dive into advanced statistics. It’s November, the Aggies control their destiny, and have three conference opponents left on the schedule.
What could go wrong?
How’d We Do Last Week?
The Aggies had a much-deserved bye week last Saturday, but the week before… bloodshed. Despite having one of the worst 2nd Quarters they could have possibly put together (punt blocked for a safety, 2 interceptions, 35% Success Rate from the Aggie Offense and a defense that allowed a 1.63 explosiveness rating) the Aggies crushed the Tigers in Baton Rouge 49-25.
Brian Kelly has been sent packing, the Aggies remain undefeated, and now make their way to the final hurdle in the middle-of-the-season road trip trifecta. Let’s talk about Missouri.
What Do We Know?
The third Tiger team the Texas Aggies have tangled with this season are considered to be the best based on the advanced stats rankings. Missouri enters the matchup 6-2, with one score losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt attempting to derail a strong start to the season. Vegas has the Ags as a 6.5 point favorite, while the SP+ and FEI picture it being much closer (2-4 point Aggie win). Let’s take a closer look.
Aggie Offense vs Tiger Defense
One thing we know for sure at this point, the Aggie offense travels. They’ve put up 40+ in all three road games this season, and are averaging 35 points/game in SEC Play. They’re efficient, with far more potential explosiveness in the passing game than they’ve had in a very long time. The run game is back to the standard set in 2024, and because of the strength of this OL and his legs, Reed is able to stay on his feet, throwing downfield even when teams bring pressure. Very few defenses this season have been built to slow them down, but the unit waiting for them in Columbia may be able to do just that.
The Tiger defense reminds me a lot of the Aggies so far this season. Really sound up front, efficient, and loves to get after the quarterback and create havoc. However, if they don’t get home in the pass rush, or if backs/receivers get loose in the second level, the defense hasn’t always been able to hold up. Similarly they’re not lighting the world on fire when it comes to turnovers, but they’re a lot better in the red zone than the Aggies have been (ranking 30th in Red Zone scoring percentage). Overall, this is a really good defense, the best the Aggies have faced since Auburn at least.
Aggie Defense vs Tiger Offense
By breaking down the Missouri Defense, I feel like I covered the Aggie squad pretty well. Strong front that is causing a lot of problems for opposing QBs and a secondary that is playing better than any in recent memory. In truth, A&M’s defense is probably two games where the back end played really poorly against the run (UTSA and Arkansas) from being considered elite. This team is exceptional at third down and forcing teams into passing down situations, but also struggles to make stops once teams get into scoring position.
The Missouri offense had to replace a lot of production from last year, and have relied heavily on transfer back Ahmad Hardy (leads the SEC with 935 yards on the ground) to make the offense go, as well as efficiency at the QB spot to keep them in manageable down and distance situations. Similar to last season, the Tigers aren’t the most explosive team through the air, but as long as you have an experienced QB playing good football and averaging a 70% completion percentage to go with your great run game… no problem right? Enter the injury to Pribula, and that changes the complexion of this Missouri offense a little bit. He looked fine in his time against Vanderbilt, but it’s a big ask for Freshman Matt Zollers to come in and run the show the same way a Redshirt Junior has been since Week 1.
So What’s the Verdict?
I said in my LSU Fun With Numbers that I was more worried about this game than I was playing in Baton Rouge. But after watching how this team played in the second half, and knowing that Missouri is now technically on their 3rd QB of the season… I lean heavily towards the team with more experience at QB and a strong pass rush. I expect Missouri is going to rely on Hardy very early on, and when they need to throw, it will be very quick passes and screens to keep Zollers from having to face pressure behind an OL that hasn’t held up well all season, despite their experience.
Hardy is absolutely the type of back who can cause problems at the second level of this defense, but I think if they can limit his explosiveness, Missouri will eventually have no choice but to let Zoller drop back and take their chances on long passing downs. Hopefully Marcel can take care of the football and look for opportunities for big gains (basically do everything he did in the LSU game except for the 2nd quarter), and I think the big plays will be there against this defense.
My Prediction: I feel like I’m slowly building the type of confidence Elko is inspiring in this team as the season goes on. At some point it might bite me but until then, let’s enjoy the ride. Aggies win another road battle 27-17.
Final Notes
Thanks for reading this week. We’ll be back next time to discuss the Gamecocks right here at Good Bull Hunting Dot Com. Until then, check out these other sites if you’re interested.
- Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
- ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info (as well as the FPI rankings). You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
- CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.
- And finally my blog can be found here, in case you’re not getting enough of my writing.
