This time of year is always a good time. Even when expectations for the White Sox are low, the weather is much better, baseball is returning, and we can have fun predicting how the season will pan out.
We will start with catcher Kyle Teel, 24, whose MLB career got off to a fast start in 2025 (.273/.375/.411, 125 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR in 78 games). Teel provided an unexpectedly large spark last season, as his bat was quite reliable even though he plays a premium position. Unfortunately, Teel suffered a Grade
2 right hamstring strain that will keep him out for the first few weeks of the regular season. However, Teel gives White Sox fans plenty to look forward to. Before the injury, Teel contributed to Team Italy’s surprising success during the World Baseball Classic. Teel was excellent in a small sample size, finishing 4-for-6 with a homer and a double. Both of his extra-base hits came against Team USA pitchers, as he took Nolan McLean deep before doubling against Ryan Yarbrough. Teel looks poised to build on the strong start to his career, and he will barely miss out on leading the White Sox in WAR. If not for his injury, I would have picked him to lead the team.
Speaking of the team leader in WAR, that will be shortstop Colson Montgomery, 24, who also kicked off his career with a bang in 2025 (.239/.311/.529, 129 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 71 games). Prior to Montgomery’s promotion, he was not exactly crushing it in Triple-A Charlotte, but he turned up the volume immediately at the highest level. Despite playing in less than half a season’s worth of games, Montgomery launched 21 homers, narrowly finishing behind Lenyn Sosa (22) for the team lead.
Munetaka Murakami, 26, will also provide a lot of pop with his bat. Murakami has made a joke of NPB pitching. By season, his wRC+ marks were as follows from 2021 through 2025: 166, 225, 154, 156, and 211. He played only 56 games in 2025 due to an oblique injury. The White Sox signed Murakami to a two-year, $34 million contract over the offseason, which was a lower price than most expected him to command. The primary concerns about his game are that many are bearish on his ability to hit high velocity, avoid strikeouts, and provide decent defense. Murakami will also primarily play first base, a less premium position than third base, where he mainly played in NPB. However, he will launch plenty of homers and get on base enough to be a valuable part of the White Sox lineup.
On the pitching side, Shane Smith, 25, will lead the way in the starting rotation. Smith, a Rule 5 draft pick, posted a 3.81 ERA and a 4.10 FIP in 146 1/3 innings in 2025, resulting in 2.2 fWAR. That total was enough to lead the 2025 White Sox pitching staff, and he will repeat that feat in 2026.
As for the bullpen, Grant Taylor, 23, will take a large step forward. Taylor had an unusual line in 2025 (4.91 ERA, 1.42 FIP in 36 2/3 innings), resulting in 1.7 fWAR, which is based heavily on FIP. Taylor averaged 13.25 strikeouts per nine innings, a sky-high total. At the same time, he fell victim to some tough luck, as opposing hitters had a .420 BABIP. Although Taylor generated many whiffs, when he was not doing that, hitters often found ways to reach base. In 2026, Taylor will allow less sharp contact, have better luck on balls in play, and maintain a high strikeout rate to assert himself as one of MLB’s top relievers.
In terms of the overall team, the White Sox will improve by 10 games, which would normally be fantastic, but in this case, it only gets them to 70-92. The South Siders will get off to a decent start, taking advantage of a soft April schedule to finish the month 15-16. With nobody in the AL Central racing out of the starting blocks, some fans will fantasize about postseason possibilities. However, reality will set in, and May will open with a rough trip to San Diego, which will cause the White Sox to fall out of contention quickly.
In the second half of the season, although playoff hopes will be long gone, pitchers Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith will make positive impressions at the start of their MLB careers. In addition, Braden Montgomery will earn a September call-up and post a 110 wRC+ during his first month against MLB pitching.
Around the league, the Mariners broke their 23-season streak without winning the AL West when they won the division in 2025. This year, they will make it back-to-back division titles, and Julio Rodríguez will emerge as a dark-horse MVP contender.
In a highly competitive AL East race, the Yankees will emerge from the pack, holding off strong Red Sox and Blue Jays squads to earn the top seed.
Last year, the Tigers blew a 99.9% chance of winning the AL Central as their cold September coincided with a Cleveland hot streak. This time, the Tigers will avoid blowing a late lead and will win their first division title since 2014. The Royals will sneak in as the final Wild Card team, right behind Boston and Toronto.
In the NL, spearheaded by the offseason pickup of catcher Seby Zavala, the Dodgers will win the West again. Elsewhere in the division, the Giants will exceed expectations and make the postseason for the first time since their excellent 2021 season.
In the East, the Mets will slay some demons by winning their first division title since 2015. Meanwhile, after being baseball’s most disappointing team in 2025, the Braves will earn a Wild Card spot, and they will be joined by the rival Phillies.
Finally, the North Siders will take the Central’s only playoff spot by taking full advantage of an unremarkable division.
The Dodgers will handily defeat the Mets in the NLCS to advance to the World Series and earn an opportunity to pull off a three-peat. On the other side, the ALCS will be highly competitive, with the Mariners repeatedly trading blows with the Yankees. However, Bryan Woo will lead a pitching staff that proves to be too much for the Yankees’ lineup to overcome.
That will set up an epic battle between two teams with very different histories. On one hand, the Dodgers have won 12 of the last 13 NL West titles, with the one “loss” occurring during a 106-56 season in which San Francisco went 107-55. On top of that, the Dodgers will be looking to win their third consecutive World Series and their fourth in the last seven years. By contrast, the Mariners have won only four division titles ever, and they have never advanced to the World Series. Of course, the Dodgers will be favored, and nearly everyone will expect them to win. In a twist of fate, however, the Mariners will come out on top. Seattle’s pitching staff will continue its run of dominance, and with Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, and Cal Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners will outpace the powerhouse Dodgers to win their first World Series.
