Chaim Bloom has gotten ahead of the offseason speculation season and all but told the fans that the upcoming offseason will be more of the same for the St. Louis Cardinals. Whether or not you agree with staying the course for an undetermined amount of time, the 2027 season has enough clouds around it that another offseason of inactivity could be excused by fans.
It appears the Cardinals have parts of their offensive core of the future, but that also relies on those players repeating and/or building
off of career years with the bat. With a top four in the order mostly settled, assuming no offseason trades, the Cardinals are also expected to extend their lineup with Joshua Baez and Leo Bernal. Rounding out the final three will be, in some order, Masyn Winn, Nathan Church, and a third baseman to be named later.
Winn is pretty much locked in at shortstop and Church was announced as the incumbent starting center fielder if nothing else changes. I do think the last part of that sentence is important as Bloom and Oliver Marmol may want to check out the market for upgrades at that position. In the same conversation, Marmol said that third base is “wide open” with Thomas Saggese and Blaze Jordan looking like the early favorites, especially if Nolan Gorman is non-tendered this winter. Church and the 3BTBNL, to me, are holdovers for the futures of those positions and those players may or may not already be in the system.
Should the Cardinals prioritize center field or third base for the future?
2023 has become my new benchmark when looking at the current state of the Cardinals and so far, I feel as if that has been able to provide some insight on the recent struggles of the franchise. In center field, Cardinals players have put up a total 3.9 fWAR with a 75 wRC+, 39 homers, and a .619 OPS. Of course, the combination of Victor Scott II, Nathan Church, and Michael Siani, the three who have played the most in center since 2023, were known more for their speed and gloves than their bats.
However, those three combined for 73 stolen bases in over 450 games and the position’s .225 batting average was second to last in all of baseball, which never gave those players an opportunity to run. Their defense, while solid, ranked 11th in MLB over the past four seasons, which is nowhere near good enough to make up for the offensive shortcomings. Next year, Church looks to build off his double-digit homer and steals year as he enters his first season in a full-time role. Behind him, Chase Davis, Tai Peete, and Josiah Ragsdale all have different skillsets and timelines to the bigs.
Third base may be the more disappointing of the two positions, especially when Nolan Arenado and Nolan Gorman were supposed to power their way to hot corner leaderboards. Those two led the Cardinals’ third basemen to a 91 wRC+ as a group, good for 19th in MLB, while their 78 combined homers sat smackdab in the middle at 15th. The position’s .388 slugging percentage put them in 18th and just like in center, the defense did not make up for the offense.
Gold Glover Nolan Arenado took a step back before getting sent out of St. Louis and whoever took over for him was never going to replicate the human highlight reel. Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Saggese, and Blaze Jordan put the Cardinals in 10th place by defensive value and the future behind the later two is lacking depth.
Ramon Mendoza had a solid second chance in Triple-A this season, putting up a .291 average with nine homers. He has never profiled high on prospect boards, but he is Rule-5 eligible this offseason so if the Cardinals want him to enter the competition, they could add him to the 40-man roster. Behind him, Jesus Baez looks like a real threat with the bat, but has not yet settled on a final infield position. Third base makes the most sense due to Winn and Wetherholt holding down the middle of the diamond.
Since 2027 looks to be another season hovering around .500, the desire for the DeWitts and Bloom to spend on the roster is likely and unfortunately still low. My most recent Twitter soapbox is that spending money at a position of need without anyone knocking on the door, like third base and center field, does next to nothing towards changing the team’s long-term timeline. Like they did with Dustin May, a quality player can do a lot for a team while he is there, and then the franchise will hopefully reap the benefits of his cameo for years to come. While this happens less often with position players, it is a strategy I would like to see the Cardinals do this offseason.
That does not mean, like Jeff Jones said, skipping to the third page of the free agent list and signing Ramon Urias to platoon around the infield. Since the Cardinals are unlikely to take this path, looking deep into the free agent pool is not worth it this early, so I do not yet have names I am interested in at either spot just yet. For those of you who are 2-3 offseasons ahead of me, go ahead and let me know what you would like the Cardinals to do this winter at those spots. As of October 11, I think that the Cardinals trust Jordan to take the spot with Saggese filling a Jose Fermin role next season with Nathan Church in center.
For now, all of those players seem like placeholders for the future, but I would like some more quality in the lineup that could result in some more offense and a return to the Wild Card without sacrificing the future. The Wild Card is not the ultimate goal, but the 2026 Cardinals have now set a theoretical 77-win baseline for the next few seasons and a couple game jump could keep them relevant deep into September.
Sticking with the offense, let me know what position you would prioritize and if a short-term trade candidate makes sense to you.
Thanks as always!
