MLB Wild Card Series Game 1 preview: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres, Tuesday 9/29, 9 p.m. CT

SITE NOTE: NBC says the first pitch of this game should happen around 9:10 p.m. CT. The BCB “live” thread will post tonight at 8:30 p.m. CT. Tuesday notes… GAME 1: The Cubs were 27-26 this year in first games of series. On the road, they were 12-14. Two of the wins were on the West Coast, at Los Ang

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What is the story about?

SITE NOTE: NBC says the first pitch of this game should happen around 9:10 p.m. CT. The BCB “live” thread will post tonight at 8:30 p.m. CT.

Tuesday notes…

GAME 1: The Cubs were 27-26 this year in first games of series. On the road, they were 12-14. Two of the wins were on the West Coast, at Los Angeles and San Francisco, as were two of the losses, at San Diego and Seattle. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
ON THE ROAD: The Cubs won the first two games of seven road series, including at San Francisco. They won the first and lost the second of five, including at Los Angeles. They lost the first and won the second of eight, including at San Diego. They lost the first two of six, including at Seattle. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

PITCHING IS GETTING GOOD, PART 1: Cubs pitchers allowed a total of 12 runs in their last five games, with a high of four. That tied for the sixth-fewest runs in any five-game span of the season. They gave up 10 three times, the last of them April 18-22, and 11 runs twice, most recently July 29-Aug. 2. They yielded 12 runs in three earlier spans, the last July 31-Aug. 4. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
PITCHING IS GETTING GOOD, PART 2: In the first nine innings of games, the Cubs have given up only 17 runs in their last eight games. They surrendered six runs in the 12th inning of one of the eight. The 23 total runs in eight games tied for their seventh fewest of the season. They gave up 19 runs July 28-Aug. 4; 20, April 14-22; 21, July 27-Aug. 3; and 22 three times, all between July 24 and Aug. 6. They gave up 23 twice earlier, April 15-23 and July 27-Aug. 5. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Here is how important winning Game 1 of a Wild Card series is:

Cubs lineup:

Padres lineup:

Matthew Boyd, LHP vs. Michael King, RHP

Matthew Boyd has had quite the eventful season.

He made two starts, then missed three weeks with a bicep injury. He came back and threw pretty well, then hurt his knee playing with his kids (nominee for Weird MLB Injury of the Year!) and missed about six weeks.

Most important for right now is that he’s thrown well over his last six starts: 3.28 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, only one home run in 35.2 innings — and that ERA is in part the victim of a bullpen that allowed some of his inherited runners to score.

Boyd allowed three runs in five innings to the Padres June 30 at Wrigley Field, including home runs by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Hold those two guys down and this could be a good game for Boyd.

Perhaps of note: Boyd has a 1.66 ERA in seven postseason games (six starts) covering 21.2 innings. He has never allowed a postseason home run.

Michael King is the Padres’ best starter and by bWAR (4.3) this was his best MLB season, though his K rate was down a bit from last year.

In his three years and 77 starts with the Padres, though, he has never made a regular season start against the Cubs. His only appearance vs. the Cubs as a Padre was one inning of scoreless relief in Game 3 of last year’s Wild Card Series. He struck out Dansby Swanson, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw.

In looking up various batter vs. pitcher matchups, small sample sizes are always caveats. I was, however, struck by the fact that Alex Bregman is 7-for-8 with two doubles and two walks against King. That’s not nothing. Perhaps it will mean something tonight.

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Here is the weather forecast for the area around Petco Park.

Today’s game is on Peacock and NBC Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

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The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

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You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.