The White Sox have already taken over home-field advantage. Now, how about stealing Cleveland’s peace of mind?
After sweeping the Astros out of the Wild Card Series, the South Siders blazed into Cleveland and grabbed Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday. Grant Taylor supplied four scoreless frames of absolute filth, while Munetaka Murakami launched a two-run, 112.2 mph bomb that I’m pretty sure still hasn’t landed.
Three postseason games, three wins. The Good Guys are making this October thing look pretty
fun.
Today, they have a chance to head home with a 2-0 lead and put the Guardians one loss away from cleaning out their lockers. There’s plenty of work left, but making our division rivals sweat through an otherwise lovely fall afternoon sounds like a worthwhile activity.
Anthony Kay will serve as the opener, with Sean Burke expected to take over for bulk work. Apparently, escaping postseason bases-loaded jams earns you a promotion around here. El Duque Lite has already helped the Sox out of trouble in Wild Card Game 2 and ALDS Game 1. It would be nice to let Kay pitch without the entire neighborhood standing on the bases for once.
Having already worked two innings this postseason, Kay likely won’t go more than a couple of frames before handing things off. The veteran southpaw has been particularly stingy against Cleveland this season, surrendering just three earned runs over 20 innings across four starts and holding the Guardians to a .171 batting average.
His Baseball Savant profile isn’t exactly a sea of red, but there are tools here to get the job done. His sinker grades best among his pitches, sitting in the 67th percentile in run value, while his ability to coax hitters into chasing ranks in the 75th percentile. The approach should be to establish strikes early, use the sinker to generate ground balls and make the Guardians reach for pitches they can’t drive.
The catch is that getting hitters to chase hasn’t translated into piles of strikeouts. Kay sits in the 20th percentile in K rate and 36th in whiff rate, so he won’t be turning every plate appearance into a punchout. His xERA and xBA also rank near the bottom, a reminder that his excellent results against Cleveland don’t give him much room to get sloppy. Give the defense something manageable, keep the free passes down and hand Burke a clean game.
And please, keep traffic off the bases in front of José Ramírez. Kay has already performed enough postseason escape acts. Let’s try an inning without the handcuffs today.
Will Venable is sticking with the strategy that has gotten the Sox this far. Burke’s four-inning start in Wild Card Game 2 remains their only traditional starting assignment of the postseason. Otherwise, it’s been all hands on deck, with the next pitcher ready whenever the situation calls for him. We’ll see whether the third outing with that approach produces another win — and whether our blood pressure survives it.
Cleveland will counter with Gavin Williams, the No. 23 overall pick in the 2021 draft. The 27-year-old righthander finished the regular season 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 32 starts.
This will be Chicago’s fifth look at Williams in 2026. The South Siders slashed .227/.318/.320 against him in their previous four meetings, so they know firsthand that stringing together hits isn’t easy. Their last encounter, Sept. 14 in Cleveland, ended with Williams taking the loss despite allowing only two runs on four hits, with two hit batters, three walks and seven strikeouts.
That game offers a useful reminder: The Sox don’t have to knock him all over the ballpark to beat him.
Williams’ Savant card practically flashes a warning sign when it comes to strikeouts: 97th percentile in K rate, 94th in whiff rate and 81st in chase rate. His four-seamer has both velocity and results behind it, while his sweeper ranks in the 98th percentile in run value. After the All-Star break, he was one of the best in strikeouts, with a 14.5 K/9. So, for the Good Guys to be successful, they can’t spend the afternoon waving at breaking balls off the plate. That would make his job entirely too easy.
But there’s a pretty big opening beneath all that swing-and-miss. Williams sits in the first percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, third in barrel rate and 12th in average exit velocity allowed. Making contact is the hard part. When hitters do connect, they’ve been capable of absolutely smoking the baseball. Looking at you, Mune and Colson Montgomery.
That makes selective aggression the assignment. Work the count, make Williams bring the ball into the zone and be ready to hammer a mistake. Patience shouldn’t mean watching a hittable strike sail past, especially against someone with this many ways to finish an at-bat. Look for something to drive early, then refuse to expand the zone when he tries to tempt them with that sweeper.
His cutter and sinker have graded much less favorably than his four-seamer and sweeper, so those could offer opportunities if he turns to them. Still, the goal is to punish location mistakes, not assume any particular pitch is batting practice. Make those plate appearances expensive and cash in when he gives the Sox an opening.
A walk and one loud swing can do plenty of damage. Murakami was kind enough to demonstrate that last part Saturday.
Chase Meidroth has been leading the postseason charge with a .364/.417/.636 slash line and 1.053 OPS. Colson has also delivered, including a clutch double in Game 1. Meanwhile, Mike Vasil and his magic wand need to send a little pixie dust toward Miguel Vargas and Braden Montgomery, whose bats have been on the cooler side. Miggy did reach three times Saturday with two walks and a single, though. We’ll happily take that kind of contribution while waiting for the extra-base hits.
The formula remains familiar: Make their pitcher work, capitalize on mistakes and keep the free passes under control. Another Murakami souvenir headed toward a neighboring ZIP code wouldn’t hurt, either.
White Sox Lineup
Guardians Lineup
First pitch is scheduled for 4 p.m. CT on another perfect fall day, with sunshine and temperatures in the low 60s. Catch the game on TBS, truTV, UniMás or HBO Max, or listen to the local radio call on ESPN Chicago 1000.
Clear the afternoon calendar. The Good Guys have a chance to bring home something much better than a split.
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