The first inning of Andrew Painter’s start against the Athletics was a painful one. The first four batters all reached base safely and all scored thanks to home runs by Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker. The pitch to Langeliers was a bad one, one that got appropriately punished, but the home run to Rooker wasn’t a horrible pitch at all. He just was able to get his hands in enough, fast enough, that he pulled the ball into the seats.
Reaction to this start wasn’t exactly the kind that would lend itself
to people being happy with Painter, justifiably so. He just wasn’t good.
Of course, there were some over the top reactions…
At least there are Mets fans out there keeping the perspective squarely where it needs to be.
There are reasons to have some concern with where Painter is at right now, but for me, that’s a matter of perspective. Should there be panic buttons being pressed over what he has done so far? Should there be larger concerns about his future role on the team? Are we going to have to sweep him aside into the dustbin labeled “bust” for those prospects that failed?
For at least one of those questions, it’s far too early for that. Even the most cynical Phillies fan that is around can admit that labeling Painter a bust already is foolhardy. Seven games into a major league pitching career is simply not enough to make major determinations about anything this season, let alone the ones that follow. There has to be time for adjustment to the routine of being a major league pitching, adjusting to the lineups that are getting the scouting reports, learning how to be a complete pitcher rather than a guy with good stuff. Putting to bed the idea that Painter is somehow a bust should be easy enough.
However, there could be some legitimate concerns about Painter’s ultimate ceiling as a prospect. When coming up, he was billed as someone who might have an arsenal would lay waste to lineups across the game. The scourge known as Tommy John surgery has now cast into doubt if that ceiling can ever be reached, particularly when considering his stuff has taken a legitimate step back. Check any scouting report from before his 2023 injury on Baseball Prospectus:
Painter’s report presents some Rorschach test qualities for modern prospect evaluation. Both Jeffrey Paternostro and I saw him live last year and thought he was very good but not great from an eye-scouting perspective…A data-driven look at Painter will show him as a potential ace. His fastball velocity actually plays up due to carry and extension, and while he doesn’t have great visual command he fills up the top edges of the zone with pitches batters cannot drive and often cannot even make contact on. The breaking balls work well in concert with each other as a diving curve and sweeping slider—two distinct breaking balls in the same velocity band is a feature, not a bug, and those are two good breaking ball shapes—and the changeup may not be used often but has good potential. He sliced and diced through Low-A, High-A, and Double-A without any real challenge, and it’s not impossible that he makes the MLB rotation out of spring training—as a 19-year-old.
Since his return in the 2024 AFL, Painter’s stuff has moderately declined compared to 2022…While even this version of Painter is a good pitching prospect, there’s nothing special there to separate him from dozens of other pitchers with solid arm speed, a developing but underutilized changeup, and some capacity for spin. At the same time, we can’t fully ignore that this was his first full season back from Tommy John, and therefore it makes sense to build in a reasonable chance of further shape and command bouncebacks.
Not the trajectory anyone was really look for in his career, but this is what happens when the return from that kind of surgery doesn’t happen in a linear fashion. As we’ve seen in his debut month, his stuff and command both look as though they are trying to get back to where once were, but it’s fair to wonder if they ever will. Does the ceiling that many were projecting for him even exist any longer? Maybe, maybe not.
Is it fair to wonder if maybe the expectations of his ultimate ceiling should be throttled down? Absolutely. While it might be seen by some as another organizational failure to develop a front of the rotation starter from within, the fact is that the team does have Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo in place for at least the next five years to handle the top two spots in the rotation. Needing to have Painter be that frontline starter is no longer a necessity….but it still would be nice if he could get there.
But let’s not hit the panic button yet on him. He’s still only 23 years old and has made seven appearances thus far in the majors. He does need to be better, which means he and the coaching staff need to figure out what is going wrong lately, particularly when it pertains to his fastball. However, there is plenty of time for him to adjust to whatever the league sees and become something better than what he has shown in his last two starts.
