The New York Mets (34-43) welcome the Chicago Cubs (40-37) for a four game series at Citi Field this week. Last week, when playing the Braves and Phillies, there was chatter about how, if the Mets wanted to make any real run the the postseason, they needed to beat the teams ahead of them in the standings. Well, the same goes for the Wild Card standings, of which the Cubs currently own a spot.
The past two weeks of the Mets’ season have been a great sample size of just how frustrating 2026 has been thus
far. After taking two of three from one of the best teams in baseball, the Braves, the Mets lost two of three to the last place Cardinals. Then, after winning their first matchup with the Phillies all year, they get routed for the next two games. With every sliver of hope comes the reality of disappointment.
While it was always an uphill battle to face Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler, the Mets didn’t have to make it so easy for the Phillies to absolutely steamroll them in those games. In what has not exactly been a distinguished start to his Mets’ career, Freddy Peralta had easily his worst start as a Met, getting [looks up technical term] his tits lit by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper en route to a 15-3 loss. Ten earned runs in two and two-thirds innings sort of says it all, doesn’t it?
While David Peterson wasn’t quite that awful in his Sunday start, he has lost any and all ability to look overpowering, crafty, or generally effective. In his defense, he did suffer a bit from poor defense behind him, but Peterson’s stuff has looked flat for the entire season.
These two starts going ineffective is terrible news for the Mets for many reasons, but mainly because their options for replacements are extremely limited. Not that Peralta or likely even Peterson won’t be pitching for the club, but their current starting five includes a number of question marks. Sean Manaea has been much better as of late, and probably has earned more confidence than I’m giving him, but the start to his season was both so unusual and so ineffective. Kodai Senga looked bad in his first start back from rehab assignment. Tobias Myers is just back from the IL, but was greeted by a [looks up technical term] dogshit start.
Christian Scott is on his way back, which is a very good thing, but beyond him, everyone else on the farm needs more seasoning. It would be lovely if Jonah Tong looked ready, but a 6.30 ERA in Triple-A says otherwise. Jack Wenninger is looking better in Syracuse, but still isn’t really knocking on the door just yet.
The good news is that, if not in this series, then over the weekend, Francisco Lindor is set to return to the Mets. This will help on both sides of the ball, as well as in the leadership and vibes departments, but right now this team’s issue is their starting pitching.
The Cubs find themselves in third place in the National League Central, three games over .500. Their June started off a disaster, but they’re 6-3 over their last three series, and are the current holders of a Wild Card spot. Former Mets farmhand, dealt for Javier Báez at the 2021 trade deadline, is having an unbelievable season, putting up 4.6 bWAR already. Both he and Ian Happ have 16 home runs on the season. Seiya Suzuki is also have a phenomenal year, with all three aforementioned players putting up OPS+s of 127 or higher.
However, as good as the Cubs’ offense has been, their pitching has been weak. While no one is having a dumpster fire of a season like some Mets starters are, there’s only one starter that really is standing out. Ben Brown has emerged as a potential superstar down the road, putting up a 1.85 ERA across 68 innings pitched thus far. Due to a rainout, Brown might miss the New York series entirely, which would be a fantastic turn of events for the Mets.
Monday, June 22: Kodai Senga vs Shota Imanaga, 7:10pm EDT on SNY
Senga (2026): 24.0 IP, 28 K, 17 BB, 7 HR, 9.00 ERA, 6.81 FIP, 223 ERA-
Oh, for Senga to show what he did in 2023 and the start of 2025 again. Will we ever get that again? I honestly don’t know. We certainly didn’t get it in his first start in almost two months last week, where he gave up four earned runs in four innings against the Reds, including two home runs and four walks.
Imanaga (2026): 86.2 IP, 84 K, 22 BB, 17 HR, 4.26 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 104 ERA-
In this battle of Japanese starting pitchers, Imanaga is clearly having the better season, despite having a truly terrible stretch from mid-May to early June, where he gave up, in a row, eight, seven, five, and six earned runs. However, over his last two starts (ten innings), he gave up just one earned run, while walking three and striking out ten.
Tuesday, June 23: Nolan McLean vs Edward Cabrera, 7:10pm EDT on SNY
McLean (2026): 83.1 IP, 97 K, 32 BB, 8 HR, 3.67 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 91 ERA-
Against the Reds on Wednesday, McLean looked dominant, striking out nine, walking one and giving up just one run on three hits. This was a nice bounce back performance after slowly rebuilding from a few truly bad starts last month. Of note: McLean hasn’t given up a home run since May 25th, which is the longest streak (4 games) of his career without a dinger.
Cabrera (2026): 67.1 IP, 61 K, 25 BB, 14 HR, 5.21 ERA, 5.16 FIP, 127 ERA-
Cabrera’s ERA has added more than two runs in May and June, and it’s not hard to see why: he’s given up more than two earned runs in all but two starts since April 11. Against the Giants and Rockies over his last three starts (two against Colorado), he’s given up 15 earned runs in 13 and a third innings pitched.
Wednesday, June 24: Sean Manaea vs Javier Assad, 7:10pm EDT on PIX11
Manaea (2026): 54.1 IP, 56 K, 18 BB, 6 HR, 4.64 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 115 ERA-
What a weird year for Manaea. He’s now made two starts ina row, each one he’s gone at least five with no more than two earned runs with just one walk and 11 strikeouts. This is not exactly Cy Young stuff, but compared to the mop up man who looked almost unplayable in April, this is a huge boon.
Assad (2026): 44.0 IP, 25 K, 9 BB, 6 HR, 3.89 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 95 ERA-
Assad’s ERA took such a drubbing early in the season that it has taken him two months to bring it down to earth. But in May and June, Assad has actually been quite good, with only three earned runs in 25 innings. He appears back in the rotation full time after being in the bullpen for the bulk of the season thus far.
Thursday, June 25: Freddy Peralta vs TBD, 7:10pm EDT on SNY
Peralta (2026): 85.2 IP, 83 K, 34 BB, 12 HR, 4.83 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 120 ERA-
This has been a rough contract year for Peralta, who had dreams of 8-year deals that get less and less likely with every mediocre to bad start. Even when he’s good, he doesn’t go deep, and when he goes deep, he’s often not good. I still make this trade every time, but this has not gone the way the Mets had hoped.
