You certainly won’t complain about two World Championships since 2017, but it feels like for the villain status the Houston Astros have accrued since that time that they would have more. The Dodgers may have eclipsed the Astros in 2025 as the chief bad guys of MLB, but I’ll always appreciate that Houston seemed to lean so easily into playing the heel. Not only are the no longer the top evildoers, they may not even be the top in their own division — the Mariners eventually ran them down last season
after the ‘Stros finished first in the AL West every year since ‘17, save that strange 2020 campaign. Indeed, it was the first time since 2016 that a postseason occurred without the pesky Astros.
2025 record: 87-75 (2nd, AL West)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 81-81 (3rd, AL West)
Yes, that’s an 81-81 projected record, something that would be borderline unthinkable given the specter Houston has cast over the American League—and particularly the Yankees—over the last near-decade. They’ve moved from the unstoppable force to a club that needs quite a few things to go right in order to challenge the Mariners, at least on paper. Hunter Brown is as good a starter as you’ll find in baseball, following up his breakout ‘24 with a Cy Young-finalist season last year, worth nearly five wins and now expected to lead the rotation.
Following Brown is a guy I’ve always liked, but is one of the ur-examples of “boy this has to go right.” Cristian Javier has thrown just 71 innings since 2023, undergoing Tommy John surgery midway through the 2024 season. He wasn’t terrible in limited action upon his return last year, but his fastball’s down a full tick from his pre-surgery self and if a few more fly balls — which he gives up a lot of — leave the park, you can see his statline starting to get pretty ugly. Tatsuya Imai, an NPB import that I wanted the Yankees to sign, will fill out the potential top three of the rotation, and while I do think he will adjust well to MLB, there will have to be an adjustment.
Offensively, the team starts to look a little old. Cam Smith, the org’s top prospect last year, is currently projected to spend the full year in right field, and Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña is still just 28. On the other hand, both Jose Altuve and Christian Walker are on the scary side of 34 and both seemed to take major, age-related steps back last year, while Carlos Correa will turn 32 this season and was barely above league average at the plate last year. They also have an odd infield logjam that is only somewhat “remedied” by Peña beginning the year on the IL with a broken finger; Isaac Paredes is still on the team and still tailor-made for the Crawford Boxes. But owner Jim Crane’s inability — or perhaps unwillingness — to delve into the big pool of free agency has meant that the once-great core of this team is starting to slow down.
Over the last decade, I’ll absolutely have taken the Astros’ success over the Yankees’ lack thereof, but the cracks are finally starting to show. There may be one more run left in this roster as currently constructed, but they’re very clearly not as good as Seattle on paper, and FanGraphs projects them to be slightly worse than the Rangers. Houston also ended 2025 with the second-worst-ranked prospect system, so if this roster is going to get any better midseason, Crane has to find some way to open up the pockets.
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