Good news: the Knicks are no longer winless away from Madison Square Garden.
Bad news: they did it by narrowly surviving a severely shorthanded, mediocre Mavericks team with a horrendous shooting night,
including 16 missed free throws, and on a controversial offensive foul.
Against anyone else, the Knicks lose that game. Aside from bursts by checks notes Naji Marshall and 2025 D’Angelo Russell, Dallas’ offense was stuck in neutral all night as they struggled from three after a hot first quarter.
So, while the Knicks are now on the board on the road, it’s been five disheartening performances to start the season. While the team looks nearly unstoppable at home, only dropping a singular game against the Magic in nine tries at the World’s Most Famous Arena, they’ve been uninspiring on the road for a variety of reasons. What’s going on with that?
The Knicks are one of the league’s best shooting teams. They make 36.7% of their triples and 79.8% of their free throws, ranking above average in both despite the horrific performance last night. If that were balanced, we wouldn’t have this kind of issue.
Except it isn’t.
Home: 39.9 3pt% (T-5th), 84.8 FT% (4th)
Road: 30.9 3pt% (26th), 71.4 FT% (27th)
Ouch. While a decrease in free-throw percentage is expected on the road (even if NBA players are usually good at blocking out the noise), a near-14-point drop is jarring. But the most glaring issue is that the Knicks, a team that has now made it part of their identity to shoot a high volume of threes, see their percentages drop by an entire nine points on the road.
What’s behind that? Are teams just playing better defense? Well, when dissecting that:
Open+ Wide Open 3s:
Home: 41.1% (37.9 att/g)
Road: 33.9% (35.4 att/g)
There’s not a big decrease in shot quality, but there is a massive decrease in efficiency. They are even statistically last in wide-open three-point shooting on the road. This rang especially true last night, when usual sharpshooters like Mikal Bridges and Deuce McBride clanked open shot after open shot.
The biggest individual culprit? Karl-Anthony Towns, the most gifted shooting big man in the history of the league. He goes from shooting 39.6% from downtown on almost six attempts per game at home to a putrid 17.2% on the same volume. This has dragged down his overall efficiency to the point that he’s in one of the worst shooting slumps of his career to start the season.
It’s not just KAT, though.
Jordan Clarkson:
Home: 42.1% (4.2 att/g)
Road: 18.8% (3.2 att/g)
Landry Shamet:
Home: 52.6% (4.2 att/g)
Road: 28.6% (5.6 att/g)
Josh Hart
Home: 40.7% (3.4 att/g)
Road: 28.6% (2.8 att/g)
Home cooking is certainly a thing, but it’s quite alarming that four of the team’s top-eight players are struggling mightily from distance on the road. Bridges, McBride, and OG Anunoby are the only players on the team whose shooting splits are even at home and on the road.
Aside from the three-point and free-throw shooting, is there anything else that changes in a big way on the road?
Well, the Knicks still grab a lot of offensive rebounds on the road and average the same amount of turnovers on the road, so the root of the offensive struggles is certainly based on the percentage dips. What about on defense?
Both at home and on the road, Knicks’ opponents are shooting the lights out from deep (38.9% home, 39.6% road) with more volume at home. The Knicks are forcing more turnovers at home (16.6 to 14.0) and getting luckier on the foul line (76.9% to 83.5%), while also allowing more free throws on the road.
They allow seven more points per game on the road, something you can chalk up to forcing fewer turnovers, committing more fouls, and not doing as well on the boards. The Knicks have a 32.2 OREB% on the road and still win the rebounding battle on average (50.7%), but they do much better on both ends at home (34.8%, 53.4%).
Could it also be strength-of-schedule-based? I’m not quite sure. If they blew out Dallas last night, then maybe, but they didn’t. While Milwaukee, Chicago, and Miami are all competent and stout opponents, they’re not worldbeaters. The Knicks have beaten the Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Celtics, and Heat at home, even if they’ve also benefitted from feasting on bottom-feeders like the Wizards, Nets, and Grizzlies.
Ultimately, the Knicks are playing a world-beating brand of basketball at home, and playing extremely mediocre on the road. While they’re not as good defensively on the road and don’t dominate the boards like they should, it mostly lies in efficiency. They have many capable shooters and, on paper, only one guy who should struggle at the free-throw line. There’s no reason for a sizable drop-off away from MSG.
