The Atlanta Falcons were persistently linked to Tua Tagovailoa well before we knew the Miami Dolphins were going to release him. The thought of trading for Tua’s giant contract made me physically ill, especially with his history of concussions and lackluster 2025 season. But the Falcons, who were also linked to Joe Flacco, waited out the Dolphins and got Tua for the low, low cost of $1.3 million and zero draft compensation.
I’ll be clear: I don’t love signing Tu at all, but at the price point it’s
absolutely worthwhile for the Falcons to find out how much his struggles were due to the quarterback he is today and how much of it was a rapidly deteriorating Dolphins team. The question, of course, is why the Falcons thought Tua was a worthwhile target and whether he’ll be able to deliver as competition for Michael Penix Jr. and/or the team’s starting quarterback.
Let’s answer those questions and more to the best of our abilities.
What is Tua’s reported contract?
Because the Dolphins signed him to a mega extension and cut him in the heart of that extension, they are on the hook for an insane amount of dead money. It’s $99.2 million, to be exact, and because he’s getting that money from Miami, any team signing him can do so cheaply and simply offset a small portion of what he’s owed. That’s why the Falcons are able to get Tua for one year and $1.3 million. He is objectively worth a lot more than that, regardless of what you think of his abilities.
The one-year deal carries perks for both sides. Tua gets to work with a well-regarded offensive mind in Kevin Stefanski, has Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts to throw to, and a capable offensive line to work behind to rehabilitate his value and try to hit the market in 2027 when the draft is strong but the most interesting free agent quarterbacks are set to be an ancient Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson, maybe Daniel Jones, and Baker Mayfield. That’s not a terrible situation for him, and it’s certainly not for the Falcons, who get an experienced starting quarterback for one year and very, very little money. They’re not tied to Tua at all if he falters.
One final note: This is legal tampering, so technically nothing is final yet. I add that caveat on the off chance something goes sideways between now and Wednesday.
Why would Tua join the Falcons?
I outlined a couple reasons above, but the reality is that Tua probably did not have a single landing spot outside of maybe the Jets where he would have been the unquestioned starter. Atlanta offers a clearer path to playing time with Michael Penix Jr. recovering from a major injury and with a new regime that is not necessarily married to the young quarterback, giving Tua a shot at a fair competition for a starting job and the possibility of injury-related playing time even if he loses that competition.
The circumstances also matter. Stefanski has not lost his reputation for effective offensive game planning despite the awful results late in his Browns tenure, in the same way Mike McDaniel had numerous suitors despite the way things fell apart in Miami. Bijan Robinson is a phenomenal receiving option out of the backfield and the kind of dynamic runner who takes pressure off the passing game, while Drake London and Kyle Pitts provide the kind of big, sure-handed targets any quarterback loves. The team also has a solid offensive line that should get a boost from the return of Kaleb McGary, giving Tua a fighting chance back there. If you’re trying to land your next lucrative contract and want to show you’re still a capable quarterback, going to play for an offensive-minded coach on a roster with some genuine playmakers seems smart.
The risk for Tua is fairly obvious. If Penix is healthy to start the season and wins the job, there’s no guarantee he’ll get hurt or give that job up; I certainly hope he would not. If Tua does start and plays poorly, Penix is not a lightly-regarded backup the team would keep on the bench as long as possible, but a cannon-armed former first round pick they still clearly have interest in developing, however intense that interest may be. Tagovailoa has to be good to win and keep the job, and if he’s not, that big deal is not going to materialize in 2027.
Why would the Falcons sign Tua?
Tua is a 76 game starter in the NFL who usually throws an accurate, catchable ball—even in his rough 2025, he ranked 27th in the NFL in bad throw percentage and was 44th in 2024—and is a lefty thrower like Michael Penix Jr. While Penix has scattershot accuracy and can attack deep, Tua is allergic to deep throws (he’s ranked outside the top 50 in average depth of target the past two seasons) and is crisp on the short-to-intermediate routes while getting rid of the ball quickly. The commonality between the two is that they are lefties and pocket passers, which allows the Falcons to build their offense accordingly no matter who is under center.
But while that’s a fun quirk and undoubtedly a factor in terms of having receivers adjust to left-handed spin and lining up protection at minimum, the bigger factor is that Tua was very good at getting the ball where it’s supposed to go not all that long ago. Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees love their screen game, and with Bijan, London, Pitts, and new signings Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus, they have players who can pick up yards after the catch both on screens and on shorter routes. When Tua is on, he can zip those short-to-intermediate passes to receivers when they’re supposed to arrive, get the ball out quickly, and keep an offense moving. The Falcons likely think they can get a better version of Tua than the one we’ve seen the past two years, and that their scheme and cast of playmakers can conspire to make life easier for him.
Tua also appeals because he’s a veteran, seasoned starter, and the Falcons had to get one given the uncertainty around Penix’s timeline. Undoubtedly Penix will hope to be back for training camp and healthy for the season, but will he be 100%? Will he be rusty? Will he suffer setbacks? Knowing that you have someone with extensive starting experience available as a fallback is a big deal, especially for a new regime that will be using 2026 to try to figure out if the future of the quarterback position is on the roster.
And hey, it’s one-year, $1.3 million. The price is a factor.
Will this work out for both sides?
Here’s where we move past what we know and can reasonably assume and move into future performance projection, which is always rickety. But I feel fairly confident in saying two things: Tua will be decent if he has to play, and he is unlikely to be better than decent and/or capable of holding off a healthy Penix for long.
What makes me so sure? For the first part, it’s Tua’s floor as a quarterback who can get rid of the ball quickly, can deliver a sharp and accurate pass, and has more than enough experience to step in with a level of comfort. For the second part, the past two years cannot be written off as fluky simply because we might want them to be. Tua has multiple concussions over the past three seasons and additional head injuries, plus other injuries, and those have conspired to sap some of his effectiveness and spark legitimate concerns about his future in the league. He’s missed a combined nine games over two seasons and has become noticeably more hesitant, more prone to sacks and pressure, and less daring and perhaps able to attack downfield than he used to be. When he was benched last year, Tua was leading the league with 15 interceptions, which has less to do with his ability to deliver an accurate ball than to the aforementioned tendency to hesitate. Tua is also short enough that he’s half-jokingly admitted to having trouble seeing the over his offensive line, has garnered controversy for his criticism of teammates and how he’s gone about that criticism, and is effectively moored to the pocket at this stage of his career.
Is all of that on Tua versus a Dolphins team that seemed disjointed and dysfunctional, and did not have a ton of great pass-catching options with Tyreek Hill out? No. Is a decent chunk of that on Tua, an always-limited quarterback who is clearly more limited now? Yes. Even if he irons out some of the issues that hurt him a year ago, the injuries are legitimately concerning and his inability and/or unwillingness to attack downfield caps the upside of players like Pitts, London, and Dotson. All of that will likely conspire to make him a slightly below average to average starter if he’s called upon to lead this offense for any length of time.
There’s always the possibility of something more if Stefanski, this supporting cast, and Tua turn out to be an excellent fit, and especially now that he’s a Falcon, I’m rooting for Tua to revive his career in Atlanta. The chances of this being more than a single year, solid stint where Tua starts anywhere from two to ten games for a new regime figuring out the future of the franchise are probably quite slim, but both the Falcons and Tua may not need more than one quality year to bridge the way to something better. They’ll hope that a team and player widely viewed as declining can find their footing together.
