Illinois will head to Houston on Thursday night for a matchup with the Houston Cougars at the Toyota Center. The Illini will travel more than 900 miles for the game, while Houston will be playing in its home city.
This will be a rematch of the 2022 Round of 32, when the five-seeded Cougars defeated the four-seeded Illini 68-53. While none of the players from that matchup will suit up in this one, head coach Brad Underwood will get another shot at Kelvin Sampson.
The matchup to watch is the freshman
battle between Kingston Flemings and Keaton Wagler. Both players are having terrific freshman seasons and are projected to be top-10 picks in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Flemings is a 6-foot-4 guard from Virginia who leads his team in scoring after being the No. 20-ranked recruit (247 Sports) in the 2025 class. He is averaging 16.2 points and 5.2 assists per game. The former Texas Mr. Basketball was selected as a second-team All-American and will be at the top of the scouting report for the Illini.
I expect Kylan Boswell to take on the challenge of guarding Flemings, but it will be essential for Keaton Wagler to have a great game on Thursday night. Wagler has emerged as one of the best freshmen in the sport despite being ranked 130 spots lower than Flemings as a recruit. He was also selected as a second-team All-American and will have the opportunity to prove himself in the biggest game of the year.
Wagler vs. Flemings will be one of the best matchups of the NCAA Tournament. Evan Miyakawa has Flemings slightly ahead of Wagler this season analytically, by the slimmest of margins.
Can Wagler win the battle?
Wagler has the highest offensive rating in the game by a full point, while Houston big man Joseph Tugler is far and away the top-rated defender. It should be a great battle in Houston between two evenly matched teams.
Flemings, Sharp, and Uzan will challenge Wagler, Boswell, and Stojakovic with their defensive grit, but if Wagler can win the freshman battle, he could carry Illinois to its second Elite Eight in three years.
