Who: Phoenix Suns (2-5) vs. Houston Rockets (7-2)
When: 7:00 pm Arizona Time
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center — Phoenix, Arizona
Watch: Suns+, 3TV/AZFS
Listen: KMVP 98.7
The Houston Rockets come to town on Saturday night for the first of two visits to Phoenix this season, with the second scheduled for early February. And they arrive as one of the best teams in the NBA. The statistics are staggering, the production is elite, and the way they’re doing it is something to envy.
Houston is playing connected basketball
on both ends of the floor, with Fred VanVleet’s return helping stabilize a team that, despite finishing as the fifth seed in the Western Conference last season, often felt like it was operating in disarray.
Of course, one of the biggest storylines surrounding this matchup is the return of Kevin Durant, who will be back at Mortgage Matchup Center for the second time since being traded to Houston two summers ago. Last season, Durant was once again tasked with carrying a significant portion of the offensive burden, much like he was during his time in Phoenix. This season? He’s averaging 20.8 points on 12.4 field goal attempts per game, a staggering 4.1 fewer attempts than his previous career low.
Quite honestly, that’s what makes this Houston team so dangerous. When Kevin Durant has the luxury of operating as the third or fourth offensive option, you’re dealing with a team that becomes incredibly difficult to beat. The fact that one of the greatest scorers in NBA history can take a back seat offensively while the team continues producing at an elite level speaks volumes about the roster Houston has assembled.
So welcome back to town, my good buddy Kevin Durant.
As for the Phoenix Suns, they’re coming off their second victory of the season, having put together their first truly complete performance from an execution standpoint in Thursday’s win over the Orlando Magic. There were encouraging signs, adjustments that appeared to work, and a level of connectivity that had been noticeably absent through the first six games.
But there’s little time to sit around celebrating good vibes. The Rockets are coming to town, and with the San Antonio Spurs arriving on Monday, Phoenix is staring down a pair of significant tests that should tell us considerably more about where this team stands.
Tale of the Tape
Probable Starters
Injury Report
Suns
- Mark Williams — OUT (Left Shoulder Surgery)
- Jordan Goodwin — DOUBTFUL (Right Calf Soreness)
- Rasheer Fleming — QUESTIONABLE (Left Ankle Sprain)
Rockets
- Steven Admas — OUT (Right Soleus Strain)
- Clint Capela — OUT (Right Ankle Sprain)
What to Watch For
I’ll be watching closely to see how the Suns plan to defend Alperen Sengun. One of the primary reasons Houston is playing so well is that the Rockets are running their offense through the 24-year-old big man, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and field goal attempts. Their ability to play inside out presents a different challenge for Phoenix, particularly given how susceptible this team has been to collapsing defensively and surrendering open looks on the perimeter.
What makes Houston especially dangerous is its ability to knock down the three ball. Remember, last season the Rockets ranked 10th in the NBA in three-point percentage at 36.4%, despite ranking 28th in attempts. This season, they’re still near the bottom of the league in volume, sitting 26th in three-point attempts, but they’ve climbed all the way to second in efficiency, connecting on 38.6% of their shots from beyond the arc.
Meanwhile, Phoenix allows the 10th most three-point attempts per game, with opponents shooting a staggering 39.4% from deep, the third-highest opponent three-point percentage in the NBA.
So I’ll be paying close attention to how Houston’s offense exploits the Suns’ defensive tendencies. If the Rockets consistently feed Sengun on the interior and allow him to use his fundamentals to create quality scoring opportunities, Phoenix could find itself getting abused in the paint. And when the Suns inevitably collapse to provide help, they’ll be leaving Houston’s perimeter shooters salivating at the opportunities that follow.
Because look at the weapons surrounding Sengun. Jabari Smith Jr. is shooting an absurd 49.1% from deep on 6.1 attempts per game. Kevin Durant is connecting on 40.6% of his 3.6 attempts, while Marcus Smart is coming off the bench shooting 38.7% on 5.2 attempts per game.
Kevin Durant might be the Easy Money Sniper, but he’s surrounded by a whole damn firing squad.
Key to a Suns Win
You know I’m going to bring up rebounding here, because that’s generally where I always land when evaluating this Suns team. But the Rockets aren’t quite the rebounding juggernaut they were a season ago. Last year, Houston led the NBA in total rebounds per game. This season? They’ve fallen all the way to 18th. There’s some vulnerability there, particularly with Steven Adams and Clint Capela unavailable for this matchup. If the Suns can bring consistent effort and physicality to the glass, there’s an opportunity to generate extra possessions that could lead to additional points and ultimately help swing this game in their favor.
I also believe the bench is going to be vital, because that’s where Phoenix possesses its clearest advantage. The Suns rank 16th in the NBA in bench scoring, while Houston sits 25th. The Rockets rely heavily on their starting five to carry the offensive load, which creates an opportunity for Phoenix to make an impact when the reserves enter the game.
And with Adams and Capela sidelined, the Suns’ second unit needs to take advantage of Houston’s diminished frontcourt depth, particularly on the glass. Those extra possessions won’t mean much if Phoenix can’t turn them into points, which is why the offensive contributions from the bench will be equally important.
We’re going to need quality performances from Collin Gillespie and Luke Kennard in this one. Their ability to provide scoring, maintain offensive rhythm, and capitalize on the opportunities created by Houston’s depleted rotation could go a long way toward determining whether Phoenix can keep this game competitive.
Prediction
This is an uphill battle in nearly every conceivable category. The Rockets are a machine right now, and I imagine they look at the Phoenix Suns as little more than mincemeat on their schedule. They certainly don’t need any additional motivation, but they have it anyway. Houston owns the Suns’ draft pick, which is as ironic as it is depressingly hilarious.
And unfortunately, I think the Suns are headed for their sixth loss of the season tonight.
