I’m a bit late on the analysis bandwagon for this game and that’s a bit intentional on my part. I wanted to be a bit more deliberate in my stance on this and that of course took some time. In doing so,
I believe I found the perfect framing for how I felt about the game and the data backs it up.
Since I’ve already got your click on the article, I guess I should warn you this will lean into stats and opinions as the video analysis market has already been saturated. So what can I offer you that’s different? My background with behavioral sciences.
The Tortoise and the Hare
For those of you unfamiliar with the story, “The Tortoise and the Hare” is one of Aesop’s collected fables and tells the tale of a footrace between foes lopsided on paper. The swift hare and less-swift tortoise agree to a race in what should have been a comically lopsided contest.
Against the odds, the tortoise is the victor. How did the slow-moving reptile pull this off? Rocket skates? Teleportation? PEDs? Nope. The hare’s complacency. Assured of its own victory, the mammal took a literal nap during the race, allowing the tortoise to pull ahead. Obviously I think this relates to the Bills “somehow.”
The Bills and the Texans
Both teams entered Week 12 with some volatility on offense, but on paper this was a race between offenses that should have been incredibly lopsided. Even with the results of this game factored in, the Bills are third in points per drive, compared to the Texans in 24th position. In yards per play Buffalo is still in fourth place, while Houston is 24th in this measure as well. I could go on, but in most major measures there’s a wide gap between the two offenses.
So what the heck happened? Now of course it has to be factored in that the Texans’ defense is legitimately really good, but Houston won the game scoring literally league average points — which was four more than Buffalo. It only gets worse if you dive into things too. Buffalo’s offense only put up 12 of their 19 points. I can make it even worse than that if you want.
The sole touchdown from the Bills came on a play we’d yell at Bobby Babich for if it happened against Buffalo. The Texans crowded the line of scrimmage to stop a 3rd & 1 conversion and nobody was in the gap that running back James Cook III went through. Yes Cook made some moves in a telephone booth, but you can’t call what Houston did a “success” by any stretch of the imagination.
Want me to keep piling on? You don’t? Well too bad. Buffalo had 11 drives where there was a reasonable opportunity to do something (12 drives counting a five-second one to close the first half). Three of those ended with a turnover, and four of them were for less than 10 yards.
Despite all that futility on the scoreboard and opportunity to score, the stat sheet still looks like Buffalo was the hare to the Texas tortoise in many measures. The Bills outgained the Texans by 65 yards, which includes the 70 yards they lost on offense due to sacks. They were more efficient too, gaining 5.6 yards per play compared to the Texans’ 4.7 yards per play. And this calculation also includes the 70 yards lost due to sacks.
I’ll repeat the question, then. What the heck happened?
Buffalo snoozed the game away. At least on offense. Was the offensive line asleep? They allowed quarterback Josh Allen to be hit 12 times, with eight of those ending in sacks. Or was the scheme asleep? The Bills had 66 offensive snaps. Assuming you have five offensive lineman in on each play as your minimum (almost always a safe assumption), that would lead to 330 offensive line snaps. The Bills had 331 snaps from offensive lineman. That means they likely had a single play in which they ran 6OL, a style they’ve been known for in the past to promote the run and/or protect Allen.
Did they perhaps use another trick like extra tight ends or a fullback? Reggie Gilliam had 11 snaps, so that’s encouraging. Aside from Gilliam, the Bills had 65 running back snaps so no extra help there. They did have 87 tight end snaps, or 21 “extra” — so roughly one-third of the time an extra tight end was in to help. I’ll let you make up your own mind based on the data, but will note that none of these point toward the line getting a lot of extra help.
Was the play calling uninspired? It’s not ideal to have comments from the opponent indicating the offense they saw looked just like what they studied for the game. The aforementioned wealth of content creators already putting film out for the game in general don’t disagree.
Was Josh Allen asleep? I’m willing to hear arguments to that effect. I won’t place the blame for every sack on Allen, but an 18-yard loss due to him running around like a Benny Hill bit rather than throwing the ball away stands out.
I could go on. I pointed out how wide receiver Joshua Palmer’s route on the last play of the game looks like he was going to run right to the ball… that was instead right to a defender. He changed his trajectory with a dramatic plant of the foot when the ball was in the air, suggesting a miscue there. The other interception from Allen; the fumble by wide receiver Khalil Shakir. There were plenty of mistakes.
The offense was so bad despite the rabbit-esque yards gained that they made the defense look worse than they actually were. Six of Houston’s points came on two field goal drives where the defense held them to five and 14 yards respectively. The offense had handed the Texans field goals.
The answer to me is that the entire offensive side of the ball felt asleep. I do think Allen made some mistakes. I do think the line wants some plays back. I do think right tackle Spencer Brown should have either tapped out, or been taken out earlier. I do think offensive coordinator Joe Brady could have called a better game.
I like this framing because Buffalo is still the hare. They are still an offense that can drop 40 points on pretty much any team when they’re clicking. They’ve hit that mark three times already this season. They’ve also been asleep three times, failing to get out of the teens in points. All three were losses. Their fourth loss, to the Patriots, saw them hit exactly 20. Not to pile on more (OK maybe a little): I know that the defense is far from perfect, but in all of those losses only the Miami Dolphins put up what you’d call a lot of points with 30. The other losses allowed 24, 23, and 23. Overall, the Bills are losing when opponents scored an average amount of points.
For the hare, it’s unacceptable to not keep pace or exceed average. So again, it’s not that I hold the defense blameless. I’d call them thoroughly mediocre if you wanted my opinion. In three of the four losses though, the blame is heavily on a sleepy offense.
Most fairy tales can be seen from multiple angles. Is the princess someone worth protecting from even trivial harm such as a pea underneath her mattress? Or is she ungrateful and to be avoided, complaining about any setback? Should we strive to be the steady tortoise? Or should the hare simply learn to wake the **** up?
The tortoise and the hare is memorable because we all know the result is supposed to be the outlier. The Buffalo Bills are too good to have napping be their pattern. What happened against the Texans should be an outlier and here we are again.
Buffalo needs to ditch the snooze button and they better do it fast. If they’re the hare in this fable, the story is an embarrassing one.
