Michigan State (8-1, 1-0) will look to get back in the win column after dropping their first game of the season to Duke last Saturday. The Spartans will tip off against Penn State (8-2, 0-1) in the Bryce Jordan Center at noon Saturday (BTN).
After neutral site games for the Champions Classic and Fort Myers Tip Off, this will be MSU’s first true road game of the season – not counting an exhibition game with Connecticut in Hartford. Penn State is 6-0 at home this season but they haven’t exactly faced
the schedule that the Spartans have gone up against.
The Nittany Lions’ best win so far might be an 83-69 neutral site victory over LaSalle on November 15. Penn State’s other wins have come against Fairfield, New Haven, Navy, Harvard, Boston University, Sacred Heart, and Campbell.
PSU fell 77-65 to Providence in a neutral site game on November 22. In their only other game against a high-major program, the Nittany Lions were annihilated in their Big Ten opener at Indiana on Tuesday, falling hard to the Hoosiers 113-72.
Mike Rhoades is in his third season as head coach at Penn State and, prior to this year, has gone 32-32 overall in Happy Valley but just 15-25 in conference games. The Lions haven’t yet made the postseason under Rhoades.
This has been pretty emblematic of life in the Big Ten for Penn State basketball. The Lions did win the 2018 NIT Tournament under Pat Chambers but their high water mark came more recently. The 2022-2023 Nittany Lions went 23-14 (10-10 in the B1G) and advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament in Micah Shrewsberry’s second year leading PSU. Prior to 2023, Penn State last made the NCAA Tournament in 2011.
Shrewsberry’s second year would end being his final one in Happy Valley. He left for Notre Dame after leading Penn State to the Big Dance, making way for Rhoades.
So far this year, Penn State has been reasonably effective in scoring the basketball by averaging 82 points per game on 50% shooting overall. The Lions are also decent from deep in hitting 37% of their three pointers. The quality of competition is probably a factor here though and Penn State hasn’t exactly been a defensive juggernaut in giving up 74 points per game.
The Lions play an aggressive, full-court, man-to-man pressure defense that tries to trap the ballhandler in the back court with double teams. But, after losing last year’s Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Ace Baldwin, to graduation, it’s been a little more of a struggle this year for Penn State.
The defensive average is skewed by Indiana’s 113 point outburst on Tuesday when the Hoosiers shot an astounding 69% overall and 55% on three pointers. The game was over early with Indiana building a 58-26 halftime lead while Penn State managed to shoot just 9-27 in the first half against the Hoosiers.
Michigan State probably won’t shoot it like the Hoosiers did against Penn State but the Spartans may have a chance at surpassing their season high of 89 points against East Carolina in the Fort Myers Tip Off.
Kayden Mingo leads Penn State with 15.4 points per game. Mingo is one of four Nittany Lions averaging in double figures along with Freddie Dilione (13.3), Melih Tunca (12.8), and Josh Reed (10.0). Ivan Juric is close to double figures at 9.7.
Dilione comes off the bench for Penn State while Dominick Stewart joins Mingo, Tunca, Reed, and Juric in the starting line up. The Lions appear to go nine deep with Eli Rice, Tibor Mirtic, and Sasa Ciani all seeing significant time off the bench, along with Dilione.
To summarize the key players for Penn State:
STARTERS
G – #4, Kayden Mingo, FR, 6-3
G – #7, Dominick Stewart, SO, 6-5
G – #9, Melih Tunca, FR, 6-5
F – #10, Josh Reed, SR, 6-8, transfer from Cincinnati
C – #3, Ivan Juric, FR, 7-0
OFF THE BENCH
G – #5, Freddie Dilione, R-JR, 6-5, transfer from Tennessee
G – #11, Eli Rice, R-SO, 6-8, transfer from Nebraska
F – #16, Tibor Mirtic, FR, 6-9
So, except for Reed and Dilione, this is an inexperienced group trying to implement a complex pressure defense. Penn State has forced turnovers at times but teams have also broken down the Lions’ pressure for easy points in the point or open three point looks.
Keys to the game for MSU
1. No Duke/exam week hangover. Penn State will be MSU’s first game in a week as the Spartans are coming off final exam week in East Lansing. Michigan State should clearly be the more seasoned team here so they shouldn’t allow the home team to hang in by getting off to a sluggish start.
2. Exploit the Penn State pressure. Despite his shooting woes against Duke, Jeremy Fears only had a single turnover against the Blue Devils. If the Spartans can quickly pass the ball out Penn State’s traps, they could be looking for easy dunks and open shots on the offensive end.
3. Reclaim the dominance on the boards. Duke actually outrebounded MSU 44-43 but Penn State has not yet been a very strong rebounding team. On the season they are just +1.4 against primarily lesser opponents. The opportunity for offensive rebounds and second chance points should be there for MSU.
4. Who sees the most time at the two? Kur Teng and Trey Fort have split time as MSU’s starting shooting guard so far. Both had memorable games against Kentucky in the Champions Classic but have been relatively quiet otherwise. Freshman Jordan Scott hasn’t scored a lot either but did hit a couple of timely threes against Duke. Scott is also quickly becoming a fan favorite for his hustle plays and ability to get into passing lanes defensively and disrupt ball movement. It may not be in this game but, if neither Teng nor Fort really breaks out, will Izzo look to Scott as it gets deeper into the season?
5. Need to string wins together now. Most important for MSU is picking up a conference road win and going 2-0 in the Big Ten. But this should also be a chance for MSU to start to put some wins together. After Penn State, the Spartans face Toledo, Oakland (in Detroit), and Cornell before a tough road game at Nebraska on January 2. After Nebraska, it’s USC, Northwestern, and Indiana at home before traveling to Washington and Oregon. If the Spartans want to be in the mix for another conference championship, they have to take advantage of the early conference schedule, starting Saturday with Penn State.
