The Illini men’s basketball team has had many big games this season. Friday is yet another one vs. the league-leading Michigan Wolverines. The Illini literally have two shots at winning the regular-season Big Ten championship: slim and none.
Broken down, that means Illinois has to win out, and Michigan will have to drop three straight games.
“So, you’re saying there’s a chance!”
While the possibility exists, the probability does not. However, this game has a must-win feel, a March Madness feel.
To beat
Michigan, the Illini have to excel in three areas.
REBOUNDING!
It has been a staple of this Illini team to control the boards. They have out-rebounded opponents by over 10 rebounds per game. In Michigan, they are facing a solid rebounding team (10+ ORPG and almost 30 DRPG). They have three players averaging 7 or more rebounds per game: Yaxel Lendeborg, 7.5; Former Illini Morez Johnson Jr., at 7.3, and 7’3” Andy Mara, 7.0. And a team that can match Illinois in height and size. In KenPom ratings, the Illini hold the edge statistically. On the court is where it will count. Blocking out and positioning will be key against an opponent of equal size. It will be especially true on the defensive end, where keeping second-chance points to a minimum will be crucial.
3-Point Shooting
The Illini have made a lot of hay from beyond the arc. But it has also been, at times, a black hole, eating up precious possessions, leading to long rebounds by opponents and, many times, easy, fast-break baskets. They need to resist taking a three just because it is there.
At times, the Illini seem to drop threes at will. Then, at other times, such as the last game with UCLA, they shot too quickly, forcing up shots. Illinois has the shooters; they just need to be very judicious when taking the shot.
On the other hand, Michigan also has a number of good shooters. They average about 26 shots per game, but they have four guards that average over 37.6% from the arc. So not only shooting from three will be important, but defending the three will be equally important.
Pace/Style of Play
Michigan is a team that can push the pace. When it can get the lead and dictate the pace, they are practically unbeatable. They have a tremendous guard in Elliot Cadeau, who averages 10.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, and shoots 39.3% from three. Michigan is also very strong defensively, particularly in the halfcourt. So, the Illini prefer half-court play, but they can also play up-tempo.
The trick will be deciding when to push and when to be patient.
Defense will also be crucial in controlling the pace of play as well. Also, in their game against Duke, the Blue Devils got Michigan in foul trouble by driving and attacking the paint. That plays into the hands of Keaton Wagler, Kylan Boswell, and Andrej Stojakovic. Driving to the hoop or penetrating and dishing to a wing or inside puts pressure on the interior defense.
As much as the Illini can use a win to their advantage. Michigan really can’t afford a loss. After losing to Duke, they have been knocked off the top spot. In the AP and coaches’ poll, they are third, but in RPI, NET, and KenPom, they are No. 2.
The Illini sit on the 2-3 seed borderline for the NCAA Tournament. A win over Michigan would keep them a leg up in the race to get the coveted quarterfinal bye. A loss to Michigan does not hurt Illinois in reality. They would still be on that borderline. It could, however, jeopardize the triple bye in the Big Ten Tournament. With three teams, Purdue, Michigan State, and Nebraska, sitting right on the Illini’s heels, every win is a premium win.
I would love to hear your thoughts.
