After a brief layover in Chicago, the New York Mets (59-72) return home for a six-game homestand that begins with three against the team with the best record in baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers (81-50). The Brewers took two out of three games when these two clubs squared off at American Family Field in July.
The Mets visited Guaranteed Rate Field in the South Side of Chicago over the weekend and escaped with one win in three tries. They took the middle game on Saturday by a 10-5 score thanks to Luis
Robert’s Jr. big two-homer game in his old haunts, which helped silence the boo birds that were out in full force. Alas, Robert could do nothing to help his new club on Friday and Sunday, with both games ending on walk-off home runs by the South Siders. In the former, the Mets took a 4-0 lead into the six, but could not hold on for the win on Elvis Night in Chicago.
Sunday’s loss was not really significant in any meaningful way, given that the Mets’ season has been realistically over for quite a while. However, the defeat did give the Mets 72 losses on the season, meaning even a perfect run through the final game of the season would only give the Mets 90 wins. Given the lofty expectations for the year, imagining the Mets not being in play for 90 wins with a week to go in August is extremely hard to take, and another reminder of just how poorly this season has gone amid preseason expectations (PECOTA had the Mets at roughly 88 wins, and Fangraphs at 89, with both scenarios pretty much well out of the realm of possibility).
There’s been a lot of talk lately of the recent hot stretches from the team’s two leading NL Rookie of the Year contenders—Nolan McLean and Carson Benge. Since the start of August, McLean is hitting .338/.388/.595 with five homers, 13 runs scored, 12 runs batted in, a 172 wRC+, and 1.0 fWAR in 19 games. McLean, meanwhile, has a 1.97 ERA in his last 10 starts, with 62 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings. However, two of the team’s other notable young stars, Francisco Alvarez and A.J. Ewing, have been on a downward trajectory since the start of August. Alvarez has just one homer in the month and is slashing .155/.269/.259 with a 59 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR in 17 games this month. Ewing has also been slumping heavily, hitting just .167/.253/.218 with a 39 wRC+ and -0.2 fWAR in 20 games. With the team out of contention, they’ll continue to get inserted into the lineup in order to figure it out, but they are both fighting for their roles on next year’s roster, and they are hitting a slump at the worst possible time for that evaluation.
The Brewers hold a one-game lead over the Dodgers for best record in all of baseball entering play today. They have done so rather quietly and efficiently, with a total payroll of just over $143 million (19th in the sport). Every year it feels like Milwaukee will take a step back after trading a player or two who played a pivotal role in their previous season’s success, and yet they always seem to find their way to the top. Milwaukee is looking to win their fourth consecutive NL Central Crown, their fifth in six years, and their seventh overall. Last year, they made it all the way to the NLCS before being unceremoniously swept by the eventual champion Dodgers. They are coming off an impressive series win against the playoff-bound Braves in which they took two of three.
Unsurprisingly given that they are 31 games over .500, the Brewers excel in all facets of the game. They have scored the fifth-most runs in the NL (650), are fourth in wRC+ (104), and have swiped the third most bags (129). They also have the second-best BB% (10.7%) and the fifth-best K% (21.6%). Their rotation, led by Jacob Misiorowski (more on him later) is tied for the best ERA in the NL (3.48) while sporting the best FIP (3.56) in the league. Their bullpen also has the best ERA (3.33) and FIP (3.56) in the NL. They are also fifth in DRS (41) and seventh in OAA (9), showing that they can also field the ball quite effectively as well.
Brice Turang is leading the Brewers heading into play with 4.1 fWAR across 121 games. The second baseman, in his fourth season with the Brewers, is having another strong campaign after finishing 14th in MVP voting last year, hitting .259/.353/.432 with a 118 wRC+, 16 homers, and 75 runs batted in while leading the club with 18 stolen bases and 78 runs scored. Jake Bauers, meanwhile, is tops on the club with a 143 wRC+ and 23 homers while hitting .273/.382/.503 in 118 games. The Brewers’ first baseman leads the club with an .884 OPS. After missing the first month of the season, Jackson Chourio has had a solid campaign, slashing .280/.343/.463 with 17 homers, a 121 wRC+, and 2.7 fWAR in 97 games.
Tuesday, August 25: Zac Thornton vs. Kyle Harrison, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Thornton (2026): 50.1 IP, 36 K, 14 BB, 6 HR, 3.04 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 75 ERA-
Thornton’s last start was really derailed by one man: Fernando Tatis Jr. The star Padres’ outfielder hit two home runs against him, accounting for all three runs on his ledger. He also robbed Francisco Lindor of a grand slam, which prevented him from earning a potential win. Overall, he allowed the three runs over five innings. The two home runs were the most he’s given up in a major league game, and the seven hits he surrendered matched his career-worst. He did, on the bright side, tie a career high by striking out seven batters, matching the output from his second career outing against the Phillies back on June 26.
Harrison (2026): 98.1 IP, 122 K, 26 BB, 13 HR, 2.84 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 69 ERA-
Harrison is enjoying a breakout season for the Brewers after bouncing around from San Francisco to Boston (as part of the Rafael Devers trade) and Boston to Milwaukee (as part of the Caleb Durbin deal). He has posted a career-best 2.4 bWAR and is on track to surpass his career high of 24 starts (he currently sits at 20), and that includes nearly a month on the IL between July 11 and August 5 with left forearm/flexor tightness. He picked up his 10th win of the year in his last start, though he did not need to do much as the Brewers’ bats exploded for 22 runs against the Mariners. In the end, he pitched five shutout innings, allowed two hits, walked two, and struck out eight.
Wednesday, August 26: Robert Stock vs. Dustin May, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Stock (2026): 16.2 IP, 19 K, 11 BB, 1 HR, 5.40 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 134 ERA-
Stock is coming off another really encouraging outing, this time against the Padres. He went 4 1/3 innings in the effort, much like in his previous start against the Nationals, and allowed one earned run on just two hits. He walked three, hit one batter, and struck out six, eclipsing his career-best from his previous start. Aside from his one hiccup in Pittsburgh, he’s been as good as the Mets could have expected and has been good at limiting the damage even with a lot of traffic against him on the basepaths. If that continues, he’ll continue to get starts for this ballclub down the stretch.
May (2026): 124.0 IP, 118 K, 42 BB, 9 HR, 4.57 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 112 ERA-
May is coming off a really rough start in his third outing with the Brewers since being traded ahead of the deadline. Perhaps because he faced the Mariners after they were embarrassed 22-0, they came out with a vengeance against the Milwaukee right-hander and put up seven runs against him in the first two innings. It was May’s second-shortest start of the year—he didn’t survive the first inning back on July 2 as the Braves erupted for a five-run first before he was removed. It was also the second time this year he’s given up seven earned runs in an outing, and you’d have to go all the way back to his second outing of 2026 to find the other time he was scored upon this much—he was a member of the Cardinals in that turn. He did pretty well against the Mets when he faced them back in June as a member of the Cardinals, shutting New York out over six innings of four-hit ball.
Thursday, August 27: Sean Manaea vs. Jacob Misiorowski, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Manaea (2026): 117.0 IP, 117 K, 39 BB, 19 HR, 4.31 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 107 ERA-
For the second straight outing, Manaea was cruising until he made it to the third time through the lineup. Much like in his start against the Nationals, he was doing really well through five but then hit a rough patch. In his no decision against the White Sox, he posted five shutout innings before surrendering back-to-back-to-back homers in the sixth, resulting in New York’s lead being wiped off the board. It’s unfortunate because the left-hander really looked good and gave the Mets yet another outing of at least six innings, making six such starts in a row. It’s probably a good lesson for Andy Green to perhaps pull Manaea before he gets to a point where the other team figures him out, and they may want to consider an earlier hook if he’s pitching with a lead deep in the game.
Misiorowski (2026): 145.0 IP, 216 K, 33 BB, 13 HR, 1.68 ERA, 2.14 FIP, 41 ERA-
Misiorowski’s numbers are beyond unreal this season, verging on video game numbers. He leads the NL with a 1.68 ERA and 216 strikeouts in just 145 innings while sporting the fastest pitch by a starter (105.5 mph) in the modern tracking era. By the by, he also leads NL starters in FIP (2.14), WHIP (0.76) and H/9 (4.8). Barring a calamitous final month of the year, it stands to reason that the electrifying right-hander will be the easy choice for NL Cy Young. His last time out, he outdueled Chris Sale, the 2024 NL Cy Young, in one of the best pitcher’s duels of the year. Milwaukee’s ace pitched six shutout frames, scattered four hits, walked two, and struck out six to earn his 13th victory of the season.
