The industry is buzzing over the possibility that the San Francisco Giants might hold a fire sale for their 2026 roster. I’ve already ranked the top 10 trade chips the Giants have, but yesterday, we got some actual names bandied about via informed rumormongering from Ken Rosenthal for The Athletic in a piece with the headline, “Giants start testing the waters on potential trade deals: Sources,” and from an X post by Buster Olney which said that the team is “open to offers for […] Rafael Devers, Willy
Adames, Matt Chapman — among other obvious trade candidates, like Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray.” Let’s examine this exquisite corpse the Giants are about to present to market and see if we can make ourselves a little hungry in anticipation of potential returns.
I’ll give you some analysis and then list teams I think might be interested, and in the comments, you can agree/disagree and/or find some potential returns from the other team’s organization.
Luis Arraez
Profile: Both Arraez and Robbie Ray are labeled by both Rosenthal and Olney as the “most obvious” moves to be made. They’re both free agents at the end of the year so, yeah, makes sense. At the beginning of the month, Arraez was the 23rd-most valuable in the sport. He’s currently #18 with +2.5 fWAR. Most impressively, his +6.9 Defensive Runs Above Average makes him one of the 11-best defenders currently gloving it in the sport. Wow! He is the second-best defender at second base behind St. Louis’s JJ Wetherholt.
Possible trade partners: Sixteen teams have sub-average performance at the plate from their second baseman, with Texas’s 99 wRC+ making it more like fifteen. Among them: the Nationals (38-35), Mets (32-40), Red Sox (29-40), Reds (34-37), Rays (41-28), Astros (33-41), Orioles (34-39), Athletics (36-36), Twins (34-40), Phillies (39-33), Dodgers (46-27), and Cubs (38-35).
The Giants probably won’t trade with the Athletics and certainly not the Dodgers. The Orioles are going to stick with Jackson Holliday, I’m sure. The Rays might like the roster they have and prefer to use the $4 million they might have to commit to the remainder of Arraez’s deal on someone else. The Cubs have Nico Hoerner for a long time and for a lot of money now. Do the Twins really think they’re in the race? Their owner was calling season ticketholders in the offseason to convince them that things would be okay, and now they’re just 3 games back of a Wild Card spot. Sure, they’re 6 games under and have a -40 run differential, but… 3 games! The Nationals have Luis Garcia Jr. who’s a left-handed second baseman. No, he’s not Arraez, but they might consider themselves to be a year or two ahead on their rebuild and might want to hold on to prospects. The Astros have Jose Altuve at second base.
So, let’s go with a field of the Red Sox (more on them in a bit), Reds, Phillies, Twins.
Robbie Ray
Profile: He has certainly pitched his way out of being a meaningful figure in any team’s rotation, but the trade deadline can get silly and one of these last minute pitching depth deals are sure to be when the Giants can move the lefty. In the trade value piece, I compared the situation to when the Padres got Nestor Cortes from the Brewers at the end of last year’s trade deadline. Teams always need pitching.
Possible trade partners: Now, he’s already pitching in the ballpark with the best Park factor for home runs (79) and walks (93), but the Pirates are right there with Oracle Park in both of those categories, and so maybe Pittsburgh (36-37) might try to supplement their rotation at the deadline just to show their fans they’re trying.
But, they’re already a top 5 staff. How about the Rangers? They play in a stadium with a solid Park Factor for Ray’s arsenal. They also have a house of cards rotation. 38-year old Jacob deGrom, 36-year old Nathan Eovaldi, and MacKenzie Gore are the front three, but the back part of Kumar Rocker, who will cross his previous MLB innings high of 65ish innings in his next start, and Jack Leiter, who has a 4.97 ERA, are shaky in a way that might require a solid backup.
Matt Chapman
Profile: As big of a mess as the Giants have been and figure to be for the foreseeable future, they might’ve somehow avoided being the messiest — and, therefore, worst — team in the sport thanks to the Boston Red Sox. Last week, Olney floated the possibility that someone in the ownership group has stepped forward to inquire about trades in hopes of improving the team’s fortunes in 2026.
So, this is what I’m getting from other teams. That, generally speaking, there isn’t a lot of trade stuff going on, and in fact, when Sam Kennedy came on and said, ‘Hey, there’s more trade talk than ever. There’s a lot going on,“ a rival executive actually called around thinking like, ‘Oh man, I missed something.’ […] and when he checked into it, what he got back was, ‘The Red Sox are looking aggressively.’ And the Red Sox are kind of on their own in that regard.
And then I heard last week from a couple teams that they [the Red Sox] were signaling that they were willing to take on money. Today, I talked to someone who with another team who told me that it’s to the degree that Red Sox ownership has gotten involved. […] I have not confirmed the name of the owner […] but, an owner […] is actually calling around and trying to grease the skids to get a right handed bat.
Buster’s unnamed rival exec also wondered, “Why didn’t they just offer Alex Bregman more money [to stay with the team after last season]?” and that’s how we get to Matt Chapman being on the block, I think, because there’s a potential deal to be made here. Craig Breslow — he’s a Yale grad, you know — got pretty cute with prospect capital and thought he was Moneyball Billy Beane when made this trade to replace Alex Bregman:
Brewers receive
INF David Hamilton
LHP Kyle Harrison
LHP Shane Drohan
Red Sox receive
2B/3B Caleb Durbin
INF Andruw Monasterio
3B Anthony Seigler
Competitive Balance Round B Draft Pick
Durbin is hitting .194/.255/.313 in 222 plate appearances (63 games). It would be an understatement to say that the addition of Matt Chapman would improve the Red Sox. Bregman signed for 5 years, $175 million with the Cubs, a $35 million AAV through 2030. Chappy’s deal also runs through 2030 but carries a $25.167 AAV by comparison. But there’s also the age factor. Bregman will be 36 at the end of his while Chapman will be 37. I don’t know how much that will weigh on the Red Sox taking on the contract — certainly, if Breslow is hewing close to SABR orthodoxy than Matt Chapman is mostly red flags. A big AVOID.
If the Red Sox are willing to take on money, as Olney suggests, then the Giants wouldn’t necessarily have to take back Masataka Yoshida’s $18 million salary for next season (but that’s just the CBT figure: it’s $18.6 million in actual value). That could limit the return, too, but sometimes it’s about quality and not quantity. And just to make sure it’s clear that I know he has a no trade clause, I’ll end this writeup by mentioning that, and how it could help or hinder the Giants. Help because it might make the other team more willing to part with a good prospect, but it could also be a hindrance if the best deal is with a team Chapman simply refuses.
Other trade partners: Mariners, Phillies, Yankees
Rafael Devers
Profile: I don’t think Devers has much more ceiling in him — at least this season. He’s owed a lot of money for a long time and carries an average annual value figure of $27.5 million. Not great for someone who might only hit around the league average. First base isn’t a position where a lot of teams have struggled to find production. The Giants’ 98 wRC+ is 23rd overall, but only 3 teams are below 90 wRC+: the Mets, Royals, and Diamondbacks.
Trade partners: The Blue Jays are using George Springer in that spot and have gotten no power. Literally, a .076 Isolated Slugging Percentage. He does get on base and doesn’t strike out much, but he might be an upgrade. In 47 games at Rogers Center, he’s hit 12 homers and has a .979 OPS (204 PA). He’s a notorious Yankees and Orioles killer, too. The Blue Jays might be trying to ride the wave of relevance from last year’s World Series appearance and might be motivated to make a big trade but also one that doesn’t really hurt them from a player development side — the Giants would almost certainly like to have the money back versus prospect capital. This is the last year of Springer’s contract ($25 million), and so Devers could simply slide into that slot for next season and beyond.
Willy Adames
Profile: I am surprised that the Giants would be willing to trade Adames, but that must mean things behind the scenes are as bad as they are in front. He has been the 8th-least valuable starting position player this season, so at first blush, it would seem like a lot of imagination and creativity are needed in order to envision a trade. On the other hand, over the last month (28 G 121 PA), he’s slashing .239/.306/.532 with 8 homers and a far more palatable 2.6 K/BB. He’s also hit 6 doubles and a triple and all with a .247 BAbip. So, some team out there would almost certainly be willing to buy his rise. It was from this point last season that Adames turned his season around, hitting .225/.323/.443 with 25 homers, 66 RBI, 60 BB, and 128 strikeouts over his final 116 games and 490 plate appearances. A similar resurgence seems to be happening here.
Defensively, though, he’s a mess, and an acquiring team might be more inclined to move him to another position. But then why not go for Luis Arraez when the cost would be considerably less long term? Well, it’s of a thought with acquiring Matt Chapman or (lol) Rafael Devers — if the owners are expecting a salary floor in the new CBA, then some teams might try to grab a guy who gets them to that threshold but without resorting to current and future market rates for similar players. Adames (like Chapman) isn’t a bargain, but the cost of a 3 or 4-win shortstop isn’t likely to get much cheaper than Adames, who’s owed $155.7 million through 2031 with a $26 million AAV for CBT purposes.
Trade partners: Yankees, Brewers (59 wRC+ — 30th), Red Sox (65 wRC+ — 27th) , Phillies (62 wRC+ — 29th). Of course, in order to make even this list seem plausible, you’d have to imagine the Brewers as one of those teams anticipating a salary floor, that the Red Sox would prefer Adames over Chapman, and that the Phillies would want Adames for second base (or, somehow, have convinced Trea Turner to move to second base). All three situations are tough to imagine right now.
But then there’s the New York Yankees, who I’ll register as a possible dark horse for any of the Giants trade chips. Matt Chapman or Willy Adames would be upgrades on Ryan McMahon, Jose Caballero, and/or Anthony Volpe.
Now, as the Rosenthal piece points out, the team has “not fully committed to becoming sellers at the trade deadline.” For some fans, that’s a sign that the team still thinks they can get back into the playoff race or, at the absolute worst, make a run to wind up with a more respectable record and maintain a core that has gathered some momentum heading into next season.
Maybe this is the cynical read, but I think the only reason why Rosenthal’s sourcing cautioned that the team isn’t fully committed is only because they haven’t yet heard any returns they like. Recall that in the offseason, the Giants were frustrated by the asks they were getting during various trade talks, and that’s when they were trying to add somebody. Taking their time to see what they could get for their high-priced players should only prove more frustrating. Remember, the Giants’ front office thought they had one of the best lineups of the last 20 years heading into the season. They’ll be dealing with an industry that never came close to sharing that opinion.
But that’s not to say the Giants won’t be sellers in some way. I was hoping they’d DFA the bullpen and let God sort it out, but there might be some small deals to be had with some of them, if the “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure” expression has any meaning.
We’ve heard nothing about Jung Hoo Lee, who’s hitting well enough that he might have some interest, or Heliot Ramos, who might be a good power option from the right side once he returns from injury. Logan Webb and Casey Schmitt were the only two from reporting who the Giants don’t appear to be moving.
Personally, I agree that this is what needs to happen. The Giants don’t need to be precious about this roster. Yes, competing in the near-term will require some sort of Chapman-Adames-Devers core, but if it’s Schmitt-Adames-Eldridge are you about as competitive? Or Devers-Schmitt-Eldridge? But maybe you don’t think the Giants need a dramatic shakeup.
So, of this entire list, who do you think is most likely to be moved and to where and for what return?
