Our series of profiles on the New Jersey Devils’ pending free agents continues today with a look at Simon Nemec. The young defenseman was once viewed as a key part of the Devils’ future, but stalled development and a change in leadership at the top might change that as he reaches restricted free agency. Let’s take a look at Nemec’s case.
Who Is Simon Nemec?
Simon Nemec was born on February 15, 2004, meaning he turned 22 late in the 2025-26 season. He was taken with the second overall pick in the 2022 NHL draft by the Devils,
behind only his fellow countryman Juraj Slafkovsky.
Nemec was viewed as a top prospect in that 2022 draft, though perhaps not quite as high as second overall. Still, the pick was not viewed as a massive reach at the time, even if many wanted the Devils to go in a different direction. Those who wanted New Jersey to draft someone like Logan Cooley or Shane Wright probably feel a little vindicated today (especially those who wanted Cooley). But to be fair, Nemec has had his moments in the NHL, and there is still time for him to develop into a strong player.
What Has Nemec Done As A Devil?
It has been quite the ride for Nemec in his three seasons in New Jersey. First, here are his counting stats:
His second season left a lot to be desired. But his first and third seasons in The Show, at least from a production standpoint, were pretty darn good for a 19- and 21-year-old defenseman. Even that 2024-25 campaign could be explained away with a slew of reasonable excuses: A preseason injury that lingered throughout the year, a new coach and new system to learn, and the fact that he was still only 20-years-old for most of the season. And Nemec even redeemed himself with the highlight of New Jersey’s brief stay in the 2025 playoffs:
However, despite the solid production, there’s a reason Nemec has an uncertain future in New Jersey. After a rookie season that saw Nemec control play solidly enough for a teenager, his underlying metrics have really taken a hit. All numbers come from Natural Stat Trick and reflect 5-on-5 play:
Those numbers from this past season are bad but not awful on the surface, but what makes them more concerning is the fact that Nemec got some pretty cushy deployment all year long. He was rarely ever tasked with matching up against top competition. However, despite losing soft minutes, he paradoxically has shown a knack for playing better the more ice time and responsibility he gets. This was most notably on display when he registered a hat trick in Chicago in November. In that game he played 26:27, and he made every single one of those minutes count.
It’s a weird and frustrating spot for the Devils to be in: Nemec doesn’t play well enough against soft competition to deserve more responsibility, yet he seems to rise to the occasion whenever he finds himself pressed into those duties. So who is the real Nemec? The one who struggles against depth, or the one who flashes greatness in top pair minutes? This is why figuring out Nemec’s future is so difficult.
If you ask me to describe Nemec’s game since entering the league, I think the phrase “high-event” would be an accurate one. Nemec’s playstyle is very chaotic. He is hyper-aggressive with his pinches in the offensive zone, to go along with his general rover instincts. He is active in transition, both while trying to push the puck up the ice and in trying to end opponents’ transition plays. And he’s also an absolute fantasy novel in the defensive zone, where the rules of physics and logic seem not to apply. His positioning is impossible to predict, and I don’t mean that in a good way. Nemec floats and attacks and wanders and takes charge all at once in his own zone, which I imagine makes him a very difficult teammate to share the ice with in those situations. Nemec is a player that generates a good amount of offense, but gives it all back and more on the defensive end.
This hectic playstyle has led to soaring highs, such as his performance in Game 3 against the Hurricanes just over a year ago, as well as his hat trick against the Blackhawks. And it has also led to tumbling lows. I’ll say it again: this is why figuring out Nemec’s future is so difficult.
What Will Nemec Do Going Forward?
Well based on everything I’ve said so far, this question seems impossible to answer, doesn’t it? Nemec lacks any sort of consistency in his game, both in playstyle and overall production. One game you might get the world-beater that former general manager Tom Fitzgerald saw in him when he selected Nemec second overall in 2022. The next game you might get the defensive liability that sinks games all on his own.
Another factor that needs to be considered is if head coach Sheldon Keefe will return. Former coach Lindy Ruff (who, at the time of this writing, is preparing his Buffalo Sabres for the second round of the playoffs) seemed to get the best out of Nemec. Ruff’s system suited Nemec well, and Nemec rewarded him with an excellent rookie season. Keefe, on the other hand, seemed like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole from a style standpoint.
Now, two things to keep in mind about this: One, even if Keefe returns, new general manager Sunny Mehta might make enough changes to either the system the team runs or the players around Nemec to make enough of a difference regardless of whether Keefe is back. Second, Keefe actually did seem to adjust his system post-Olympics to emphasize more offense and tempo, which theoretically plays to Nemec’s strengths.
So I can absolutely see a change in leadership having a positive impact on Nemec. I’m at the point where I’ll believe it when I see it with him, but he certainly wouldn’t be the first young player to blossom thanks to a reboot of sorts.
What Is Nemec’s Value? What Are His Comparables?
About 10 months ago, I actually did a bit of a preemptive deep dive into Nemec’s future with the Devils. At the time, he was coming off a terrible regular season that ended extremely well with a strong postseason, and was entering the last year of his entry-level contract. In that piece, I found the following comparables for him:
Alex Vlasic, Chicago Blackhawks: 6 years, $4.6m AAV, Age 23 in first season of contract
Mattias Samuelsson, Buffalo Sabres: 7 years, $4.29m AAV, Age 23 in first season of contract
Kaiden Guhle, Montreal Canadiens: 6 years, $5.55m AAV, Age 23 in first season of contract
John Marino, Pittsburgh Penguins: 6 years, $4.4m AAV, Age 24 in first season of contract
I came up with those comps because they all had a similar profile at the time of their signings between career games played and counting stats. I averaged those contracts together, adjusted for inflation, and came up with this contract projection for Nemec:
6 years, $5.61m AAV
Since that article, we have another full season of data to work with. And what did that season tell me? Well…
What Would I Do With Nemec? What Do I Think The Devils Will Do?
I would absolutely not give Nemec that contract I projected last summer. Nemec took a big step forward as far as goal-scoring this past season. His 11 tallies in 68 games is genuinely impressive stuff from a defenseman as young as him. That being said, he generated those 11 goals on a 10.9 shooting percentage, up from 7.7% in 2024-25 and 4.1% in 2023-24. For context, Cale Makar, the best defenseman in the world and a breathtaking offensive blueliner, shot 10.1% this past season and has a career 10.3 shooting percentage. Do I think Nemec is on-par with someone like Makar as a shooter? No I do not.
So there is almost certainly going to be some heavy regression in Nemec’s goal-scoring this upcoming season, which wouldn’t be a huge problem if there were other parts of his game that make up for that. The problem is we didn’t really see any meaningful step forward in other areas to give me confidence he’ll make up for that shooting bender he went on, which gives me pause as far as committing to him long term. Last summer, I jumped the gun and stated that I was willing to give Nemec that long-term extension then and there. I was wrong, clearly that would have been a mistake. Now, I think it’s bridge deal or bust for Nemec, that’s all he’s earned at this point.
Then again, maybe I’m wrong about that. The latest rumor surrounding Nemec is that he’s looking for Luke Hughes money on a new deal. That seems insane to me, but according to AFP Analytics, if Nemec were to take a long-term pact, they project it to come in at seven years with an AAV of $8.3M. So perhaps I’m out of touch if both Nemec and AFP think he can get that on a long-term contract.
On the other hand, AFP also gives a projection for a bridge deal for Nemec: two years, $4.3M AAV. That is way, way more reasonable to me, although I personally think that $4.3M figure is a little high as well.
So for me, I would 100% go with a bridge deal. Nemec has proven to me that he has not yet earned a long-term commitment, so going two or three years on his next contract would be ideal to me.
As far as what I think the Devils themselves will do, I would be shocked if they don’t go with a bridge deal. It’s hard to know how Sunny Mehta will operate since we have no track record on him as a leading man, but I find it hard to believe he would give Nemec a ton of years and money off the season he just had.
All of this, of course, is predicated on New Jersey actually keeping him around, as opposed to trading him for help elsewhere on the roster. That remains a strong possibility as well, but that’s a conversation for another day.
Your Take
What do you make of Simon Nemec’s contract situation? Would you go short term or long term on his next deal? What did you think of his 2025-26 season? How encouraged or discouraged were you by what you saw? As always, thanks for reading!
