Tis’ the season for mock trades! Dbacks fans are no stranger to Ketel Marte rumors as we have been living them pretty much for the past 2+ years, however this season it really felt like Ketel finally wore out his welcome. No sense in rehashing all of that in this article. His off-field issues are well documented, and every team knows Arizona is motivated, so they likely only are able to get 75 to 80 cents on the dollar. The question isn’t whether he goes. It’s who gives the most back, and what Arizona wants
is likely starting pitching.
That’s the right ask. The rotation was the biggest hole in 2026 as I previously wrote about, and a team that won 86 games should be trying to win in 2027 and build for later at the same time. A young starter under team control for years does both.
So with all of the Ketel Marte trade speculation floating around out there, I decided to try my hand at a Ketel Marte mock trade. My focus was simple, acquire as much controllable big league starting pitching upside as possible. Here was my favorite target:
Arizona Trades Ketel Marte to the New York Mets for Christian Scott
What Ketel Marte brings: 1 thing is for certain. When Marte is healthy, he has one of the most impactful bats in the game. Marte was a top-15 bat in baseball over the last three years, and no free agent this winter matches what he has done over that span. Over 2024–26, his 133 wRC+ ranks 13th of 176 hitters with 1,200+ PA, and his 13.5 fWAR ranks 14th. Now some people could push back and point at 2026 being a bit of a down year for him, however his 2026 contact was still good. His .349 xwOBA was 81st percentile, so his results trailed the quality of his contact.
Why the Mets
The Mets won 74 games in 2026 and scored 699 runs, 20th in baseball. The offense failed them, and Marte is one of the best bats teams can get this winter. Steamer projects a 126 wRC+ for 2027, 22nd of 225 hitters with 400+ PA, and 3.8 WAR. His 2026 line looks worse (103 wRC+), but his .349 xwOBA says he hit better than the results showed.
I cant imagine the Mets sitting around wasting Juan Soto’s prime years and not being aggressive to get back to the postseason. Second base is also an easy upgrade for them. Marcus Semien hit for a 74 wRC+ in 2026 with −0.5 fWAR and −9 OAA. He’s owed $26M in 2027 and $20M in 2028, but the Mets owe that money whether he plays or not. That shouldn’t stop a team built to win during Juan Soto’s prime. Marte is worth about 2 wins over Steamer’s Semien projection, and closer to 3.5 if Semien repeats his 2026.
What Arizona gets: Christian Scott
Scott struck out hitters like a top-quarter starter in his first season back from surgery. His FIP was better than his ERA, which suggests some bad luck. He’s under team control through 2030, and our my trade model puts his surplus value around $28M. That’s at the top of the 75–80 cent range on Marte, so Arizona wouldn’t need to send money or ask for another prospect.
The risk: Innings
Scott moved fast. He was drafted in 2021 at 22 and debuted in May 2024. Then he hurt his UCL after 47 MLB innings, had hybrid Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of 2025. He turns 28 in June with only 157 career MLB innings and has never thrown more than about 125 in a season, counting the minors. His walk rate also rose to 9.9%, well above his 3–7% in most minor-league stops, which can be common in the first year back from a major surgery like that. Arizona needs innings, and Scott hasn’t shown he can provide 160 of them. That’s the main reason this deal could be a risky bet for Arizona, but it is also the main reason why the Mets may be willing to give up such upside.
The 2027 Cost
This trade costs Arizona wins next year. Losing Marte is worth about −4 wins, and Scott gets back roughly 1, so the swap is about −3 before spending the money. Moving Marte frees about $12.75M for 2027, which buys about 1.3 wins at market prices. Net, Arizona is about 1.5 to 2 wins worse in 2027 unless they find second-base help.
The Upside
In my humble opinion, an arm like Christian Scott is exactly the kind of gamble this team needs to take. A controllable starter whose stuff really plays. His Stuff+ was 116 in 2026 was in the 93rd percentile and his K% of 28.3 was in the 90th percentile. He likely has the ceiling of a real No. 2 starter (4-5 WAR) if he cuts back his walk rate and finds a better 3rd pitch for lefties. His stuff is already near the top of the league, walks and innings are what is holding him back. From a projections standpoint: Steamer 2027: 145 IP, 3.86 FIP (45th of 176 projected starters), K% 24th, 2.3 WAR (54th). From a player comps standpoint: 25 starter-seasons from 2022–25 closest to his Stuff+, K% and BB% at ages 25–29 include Dylan Cease, Cole Ragans, Blake Snell, Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore. That’s exactly the high-strikeout, high-walk profile we are talking about here. The next season for that group: median 2.2 fWAR in 168 IP; 40% reached 3+ WAR, 20% reached 4+, and the 90th percentile was 4.7; 28% threw fewer than 80 innings.
The Verdict
I like this move for both teams. The Dbacks get worse in 2027, but get a solid upside starter and get Ketel off the team and free up some cash. The Mets get to make the big splash and get the best bat of the offseason for a starter with little track record and immediately run out one of the top offenses in baseball with Ketel, Soto, Lindor, and Bichette. They also are in a good position to sign one of the big offseason starting pitching arms out there as Jon Heyman of the NY Post said last week that the Mets are in on Skubal.
Overall, it ultimately depends on whether or not the Mets believe they can work with Ketel Marte and whether or not they are already planning on bolstering their rotation in free agency.
What do you guys think?
Bonus Content! Runner-Up Mock Trades for Ketel:
If you’ve made it this far and want to keep mock trading for Ketel, I figured I may as well share my runner up mocks as well:
PHI for Andrew Painter- PHI also bad need for offense (2027 Steamer 95 wRC+ ranks 28th), and has a surplus of pitching but Painter not as proven as Scott, bigger risk for ARI. But Painter throws hard: 96.6 mph, held all season, at age 23, and more than 150 total innings in 2026 between MLB and AAA. His secondaries were very good. Hitters managed a .177 wOBA against the changeup as lefties and .241 as righties, with whiff rates of 35–38%. His sweeper held righties to .205. However his 4 seamer got hit hard in 2026. .544 wOBA against righties, and only an 11.4% whiff rate against lefties.
DET for Jackson Jobe- DET has a big hole at 2B and is reportedly in on some big FA as it appears they have a real shot to contend in 2027 and beyond in a weak AL Central. They also have a wealth of young arms. Young pitchers like Jobe usually aren’t available, however he has some real durability issues. Jobe threw about 61 innings in 2026 with rehab, 49 in 2025, and has never topped about 96 in a season. But real top of the rotation potential here.
NYY for Will Warren- Much lower ceiling than Jobe, Scott, or Painter, but more of a steady innings presence at the backend of a rotation. Take a swing for an upside arm IMO. NYY need a 2nd basemen.
PHI for Gage Wood- If PHI wont do Painter, Wood is near MLB ready but gave up a lot of HR in 2026 and only threw 95 innings in 2026 so a full starters workload in 2027 would be a stretch. High upside though.
NYM for Jonathan Santucci and Jack Wenninger- If the Mets wont do Scott, and the Dbacks are willing to settle for unproven MLB talent, this is a good blend of upside and innings. For Santucci, the swing-and-miss is real: his swinging-strike rate was 95th percentile at both AA and AAA. His slider got 39.8% whiffs per swing and his curve 47.5%, on 610 tracked pitches. But has a real walks problem. However, Wenninger threw 115 AAA innings last year so provides some more proven floor to the deal.
