In what seems like a long time ago already, but still only two weeks ago, the Minnesota Vikings were projected to finish at the bottom of the NFC North and had the longest odds to win the division at +550 or so just prior to the start of the season.
But after a 2-0 start with wins over two division opponents in the Packers and Bears, the Vikings have become the betting favorites to win the division, with odds shortening to +150. Meanwhile, the odds for the Packers have lengthened from around +200
just prior to the season start to +760 today. The odds for the Bears have also lengthened some to +385. The odds for the Lions have stayed roughly the same at +170, just behind the Vikings now.
It’s easy to jump to conclusions based on early results, but it’s a long season and most teams in the division still have 15 games to play and anything can happen. Having said that, there are some developments that could influence division results. Let’s take a look by team.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are now 1-2 after losing their home opener to the Atlanta Falcons 35-14 and getting booed off the field by the Packers faithful. It was the first home opener the Packers have lost in 14 seasons and it was an ugly one. The main issue for the Packers is their offensive line is historically bad at this point. They have the worst pass blocking win rate after three games since they started recording the stat. They also have the fewest rushing yards after three games in franchise history going back to 1933. They have the worst overall team PFF grade and a bunch of other not-so-flattering stats.
But fixing the offensive line at this point- and they just lost their only good offensive lineman in Zach Beto-Bewele (formerly Tom) for the season- is a nearly impossible task. All five starting offensive linemen are bad at this point and replacing them with better performers in-season is basically impossible. The only hope is they improve as the season wears on. The fear is that if they continue at this level there is no way starting quarterback Jordan Love will manage to escape injury, making things that much worse.
The Packers have gotten good starts from wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and Lukas Van Ness appears to have taken his game to the next level, which will make a formidable edge-rushing tandem with Micah Parsons when he returns in a month or so, but by that time it may be too little, too late.
Chicago Bears
The Bears started the season strong, racking up 59 points against a weak Carolina defense, but fell back to earth against the Vikings, scoring just 3 points in the Chicago rain. Caleb Williams also suffered a grade 1 hamstring injury which will likely keep him out of the next couple games for the Bears. Backup Tyson Bagent also suffered a concussion in the Vikings game, which will keep him out of their matchup against the Eagles on Monday night.
The Bears have the toughest schedule in the division by a significant margin and a suspect defense so if the Bears drop a game or two early on (and most expected them to beat the Vikings at home), it may be difficult for the Bears to make up for that later in the season.
Detroit Lions
The Lions need overtime to beat the Saints week one, then lost convincingly to the Bills in week two. Overall, it is a weak start for the Lions largely due to their defense, which ranks 31st in both points and yards allowed after two weeks. The Lions have a few injured players in their defensive secondary, most notably Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, who are currently on the PUP list. Branch will likely return after two more games, but Joseph’s return is more doubtful. Beyond that, there is some concern about Kelvin Sheppard as defensive coordinator and the talent of the secondary with so many injuries and even the healthy starters at cornerback.
The Lions’ offensive line looked shaky to start the season but has held up reasonably well so far. They are dealing with some injuries but overall it hasn’t been terrible. It’s not as good as 2024 either, however.
Overall, the Lions don’t seem to be as dominant out of the gate as some people expected, and they have a test on Sunday against the Jets, who nearly beat the Packers last week after beating the Titans to start the season. The Jets have the toughest defense the Lions have faced so far this season. But the Lions also have by far the easiest schedule in the division and that should help keep them in contention for the division crown over the course of the season. But the question of just how good the Lions really are remains unanswered thus far.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are off to the early lead in the division race, with a one-game lead plus a tie-breaker advantage over the Packers and Bears in head-to-head matchups, with a chance to widen that lead by the end of Monday night.
The Vikings play a desperate Tampa Bay team at 0-2, given that only one team has ever made the playoffs after going 0-3 to start the season (The Texans did it twice). The Bucs fell behind 24-10 to the Bengals to start the season but rallied to make it a one-score loss at 33-27 but then lost to the Browns at home 23-20. The Bucs have lost the turnover battle in both games so far but have been good in the ground game and stopping the run. But I suspect this Buccaneers team is looking for an identity as they’ve struggled out of the gate and don’t really have much top-tier talent across their roster. The Vikings are a 1.5-point road favorite.
But the Vikings also have questions, particularly on offense. The defense has carried the team so far, with Carson Wentz stepping in for the injured Kyler Murray. But the Wentz-led offense ranks last in total yards, last in passing yards, second-to-last in passing yards per attempt, and 25th in rushing yards per attempt. Winning the turnover battle and being effective on both sides of the ball in the redzone have been the keys to success so far.
The expectation is that Kyler Murray will put up at least average numbers in the passing game and add some to the running game on occasion, but he had a poor start in his 11 plays against the Packers, throwing an interception before suffering a concussion on a scramble run. If Murray is able to put up at least career-average numbers for him, that combined with a dominant defense should keep the Vikings in the top spot in the division based on how things have unfolded so far, but whether Murray can be a catalyst for the offense, and whether Brian Flores’ heavy-blitz approach will continue to be so successful remains to be seen.
Bottom Line
The way the first couple weeks have unfolded in the NFC North reveals perhaps a weaker division than originally thought and one the Vikings are in good position to win at this point. All that has been a surprise to most pundits. In my own forecast I had the Vikings and Lions fighting it out for the division title, with the Packers and Bears further back. Will see what happens down the road, but so far the NFC North may be the most surprising division in the league.
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