The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (35-32-2) @ Dallas Stars (43-16-11)
The Time: 8:00pm ET
The Broadcast: MSGSN2, Devils Hockey Radio Network
Last Devils Game
New Jersey travelled down to our nation’s capital on Friday to play, well the Capitals. The offense disappeared once again in a lifeless 2-1 loss.
Last Stars Game
Dallas was last in action on Sunday, falling 3-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights. Wyatt Johnston and Justin Hryckowian were the goal scorers for the Stars that night.
Last Devils-Stars Game
It happened on December 3, and it was a hapless 3-0 loss at
The Rock. This was part of the beginning of the end for New Jersey, as this loss was part of a larger five-game losing streak that kickstarted the team’s months-long spiral down the standings.
How The West Was Won
Yesterday, I wrote about the Devils’ ridiculous struggles against the Metropolitan Division this season. At 6-13-2 after Friday’s loss to the Caps, I argued that this woeful underperformance against in-division foes was an under-the-radar reason why New Jersey’s season has been so catastrophically disappointing. You don’t have to agree with my argument, but what is inarguable is that the Devils have left so many points on the table (and handed them to their direct rivals) with how terribly they’ve performed in Metro matchups.
Well buried in that piece was one inexplicable stat: The Devils have been dominant against the Western Conference this season, compiling a 19-10-0 record against the West.
I suppose it’s not totally inexplicable when you think about how weak the Western Conference has been this season. Whereas the playoff cut line in the East currents stands at 85 points, the playoff cut line in the West is at 75. The Pacific Division in particular is a trainwreck this year, with the Anaheim Ducks currently holding down the top spot with a mere 82 points. Just think about that for a second: A division leader in the West would not even be a postseason team in the East.
So with all that in mind, it makes more sense that the Devils have performed well against Western Conference teams. They’ve outscored Western Conference opponents 87-77, and have performed reasonably well as far as the underlying 5-on-5 numbers go:
That’s a pretty bad HDCF%, but aside from that the Devils have put up respectable metrics.
All that being said, I don’t anticipate New Jersey looking good tonight. This isn’t one of the many lackluster Western Conference teams, this is one of the elite teams in the entire league. Then again, the Devils did sweep a great Western team like the Minnesota Wild this year (pre- and post-Quinn Hughes), so I guess anything is possible. Either way, if you’re a Devils fan, you have to hope the team keeps up their dominance over the Western Conference tonight.
Exorcising Some Demons
Let’s travel back in time almost exactly one year: March 4, 2025. That day was the last time New Jersey played in Dallas. It was a very, very notable game for a few reasons, none of which were good.
First of all, that was the first game New Jersey played after Jack Hughes suffered his season-ending shoulder injury in Vegas. Second of all, the Devils also lost Dougie Hamilton to a long-term injury in this game as well. He wouldn’t play again until the meaningless regular-season finale, and while it was good to see him back for the postseason, he clearly was operating at far less than 100% in that first round against Carolina. That night in Dallas was where we lost a fully functional Hamilton for the year. And third of all, Thomas Harley scored with five seconds left to put the Stars up by a score of 4-3. Dallas would of course hold on to win by that score. It was as brutal a loss as a team could suffer in the midst of a fight for their playoff lives.
In the end, the regulation loss turned out not to matter, as New Jersey was able to reach the postseason anyway. But that game is a haunting one to look back on considering it was the first post-Hughes game of last year and the contest in which New Jersey’s top defenseman was effectively lost for the season. The gut-punch regulation defeat was just the cherry on top.
So tonight, aside from the obvious reason of wanting to see my favorite team win, I also want two points for another reason: cleansing some bad juju. Even if the season is already lost, a win tonight would feel cathartic.
A Tale Of Two Teams
Since the Devils returned from the Olympic break, they have gone 7-5-0. Not a bad record, though nothing amazing either. For a while, it did look like New Jersey was playing a different, much better brand of hockey that actually played to the players’ strengths (what a concept!). In fact, there was a faint glimmer of hope starting to form that New Jersey could maybe, just maybe, go on an improbable run to a postseason bid.
That dream is all but dead, and in hindsight it was probably fool’s gold anyway:
New Jersey has had a very easy post-Olympics schedule, getting nine of their first 12 games against teams currently out of the postseason picture. They’ve done well against those squads, as they should, but when they battle teams that are actually competent, they fall apart. Even their one win over a playoff team, March 16 vs. the Bruins, was a 4-3 overtime squeaker.
Tonight they get their biggest test since returning from the Olympics. They’ll need to be firing on all cylinders if they want to skate away with two points.
The Stars Are Shining Once Again
The Dallas Stars have been one of the premier teams in the NHL for a while now, and this season is no exception. At 43-16-11, they sit second in the entire league with 97 points, behind only their division rivals, the Colorado Avalanche. They will once again coast to the postseason, although thanks to the NHL’s dumb playoff format, they will need to go through two of the league’s best teams in the Avalanche and the Minnesota Wild in the first two rounds, despite being the second-best team in the league themselves.
The main reason Dallas has been so successful in recent years is their absurd depth. They’re a team that comes at you in wave after wave of speed and skill until you’re ground into submission. Usually when we talk about teams overwhelming or overpowering opponents, we talk about doing it through physicality and grit. With Dallas, they overwhelm and overpower opponents with talent.
Take their offense for example. Dallas enters tonight’s contest with nine players on their team with at least 10 goals. It will be an even 10 players shortly, as superstar defenseman Miro Heiskanen sits at nine goals on the season. They have 10 players with at least 30 points. Of course they have their superstars, which we’ll discuss momentarily, but this is a team that is built on incredible depth.
As far as those superstars go, Jason Robertson currently leads the team with 38 goals and 82 points. Plenty of trade rumors swirled around Robertson in the preseason and even into the regular season, mostly for salary cap reasons. But Dallas is probably very glad they held onto their homegrown superstar.
Elsewhere, Wyatt Johnston, another homegrown player, is tied with Robertson with 38 goals, and comes in just behind him in points with 75. This includes an absurd 23 power play goals, which leads the entire NHL. If the Devils find themselves on the penalty kill tonight, they need to watch Johnston like a hawk. Heck, the Stars enter with the second-best power play in the league (behind Edmonton), converting at a superb 29.1% clip. So Johnston is obviously the one to watch here, but the entire Dallas PP is extremely dangerous.
Dallas’ big trade deadline import from last season, Mikko Rantanen, enters with 20 goals and 69 points. Heiskanen (homegrown) has nine goals and 59 points. Roope Hintz (homegrown…are you starting to sense a pattern here?) rounds out the top-five scorers on Dallas with 15 goals and 44 points.
And it’s not just their offense that shines either. Dallas is an elite defensive team, allowing only 2.66 goals per game, the second-best mark in the league behind Colorado. They overwhelm with waves of offense, and they hold down the fort well when their offense is pushed back.
This is what Dallas has built. It is a truly elite team with top-end talent and quality depth. They are a lawnmower, and the vast majority of their opponents are mere blades of grass. When I think of what I want the Devils to be, the Dallas Stars are one of the first teams I think of.
If there is one weakness in Dallas’ game, it’s that they don’t control play particularly well. According to Natural Stat Trick, they are either underwater or just above breakeven in all the major categories at 5-on-5:
The xGF% and HDCF% are good, but the CF% and SCF% are mediocre to bad. This is surprising for a team of Dallas’ caliber. Granted, NST is not the be-all/end-all, and many other models both public and private might be much kinder to the Stars. But at least according to Natural Stat Trick, they are at least a little vulnerable in puck possession.
Your Take
What do you make of tonight’s game? What are you expecting tonight? What do you expect from Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton (particularly Hamilton) in their revenge games of sorts? As always, thanks for reading!
