UFC Vancouver is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 18, 2025) inside Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. In the main event, surging Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight title contender Reinier de Ridder collides with No. 9-ranked Brendan Allen.
We have a weekly series here at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in Canada when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers
think (that’s you!), so tell us your most confident UFC Vancouver betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Vancouver odds here).
Last week’s recap: Just as we were starting to roll, Joel Alvarez laid an egg and took Vicente Luque to a decision … even though it should have been stopped in the first round.
Let’s keep on, keeping on below:
In UFC Vancouver’s main card opener, “The Steamrolla” Matt Frevola returns to take on Canada’s own Kyle Nelson in a Lightweight matchup that could produce fireworks.
This week, I’m locking in the Frevola moneyline (-122).
Here’s why:
Frevola may be coming off back-to-back knockout losses, but both came against very good competition in Benoit Saint Denis (watch it) and Fares Ziam (watch highlights). In hindsight, those defeats look far less damning. Before that, Frevola rattled off three straight first-round knockouts over names like Drew Dober (watch highlights) and Ottman Azaitar, showing that his skill set and firepower remain elite.
When Frevola is focused and aggressive—but controlled—he’s an elite, underrated fighter. His pressure style, powerful boxing, and underrated grappling make him a well-rounded threat. Everything coming out of his camp suggests he’s motivated to bounce back in a big way. It’s tempting to take Frevola by knockout (and the price is juicy), but with his recent durability concerns, I’ll stick to the safer play on the money line.
As for Nelson, this marks his return to Lightweight after eight fights at Featherweight. He’s fought at Lightweight before but holds a record of just 1-1, and his track record at 155 pounds hasn’t been stellar—he’s struggled with pace, power, and consistency. Frevola is the sharper, faster, and more dangerous fighter here, especially in the first ten minutes.
I’ll just say it, Frevola is the better fighter in every aspect.
What could go wrong?
Frevola’s chin is the obvious concern. Two consecutive knockout losses are never easy to ignore, and if Nelson can weather the early storm and find his rhythm late, things could get dicey. The crowd will be behind “The Monster,” too, which could fuel an upset.
Still, given Frevola’s overall skill set, motivation, and resume, Frevola ML (-122) looks like a smart, bounce-back betting play for UFC Vancouver.
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter agrees with us.
- Kyle Nelson To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +215
- Kyle Nelson To Win By Submission: +2000
- Kyle Nelson To Win By Decision: +400
- Draw: +5000
- Matt Frevola To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +200
- Matt Frevola To Win By Submission: +800
- Matt Frevola To Win By Decision: +400
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