Howdy and welcome back to Fun With Numbers. It’s the end of October, the Aggies, the numbers and The Pulse are all fun to look at right now… and none of us know what to do about it. Let’s talk about it.
How’d We Do Last Week?
Well, the offense certainly exceeded expectations, didn’t they? It was one of the most complete units we’ve seen from that group, with the Aggies turning in a 57% Success Rate when running the football and Marcel having his best game of the season based on QBR. It’s exactly the type of performance you want to see against a defense that had done very little in the weeks leading up to the game.
Speaking of, it was a tough showing from the Aggie defense that had been so strong in recent weeks. I knew Arkansas would move the ball well, they’ve done it against almost everyone this season. Still, the explosive runs remain a big problem for this defense and it made the game a lot more interesting than it needed to be. Is this a sign that the defense is starting to falter as the season gets late? Or is it more of an outlier?
Below, I (very quickly and roughly) charted the opponent’s total Success Rate vs Explosiveness for each game this season. It definitely feels like a one off based more on the quality of opponent they were facing, weather and other factors, as well as just playing poorly.
What Do We Know?
The Aggies take their undefeated record for another road test, this time under the bright lights of Death Valley. The Tigers haven’t quite lived up to their preseason expectations (The SP+ projected them to be 11th in the country at the start of the season), having dropped games against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt so far. The Aggies are about a 2.5 point favorite in Vegas, and the SP+ and FEI both project the Aggies to win by 1 and 3 points, respectively.
Aggie Offense vs Tiger Defense
The Aggie offense continues to score just enough points whether the defense shows up or not. The passing game continues to impress and the running game is starting to catch up to what we expected following last year, although we’ll probably want to withhold judgment on how losing Moss affects the team until after this offense plays a defense with a pulse again. I’m not trying to alarm anybody, but this is the highest ranked Aggie offense in the SP+ since a young Jonathan Football was taking snaps. The Offensive Passing PPA at .48 is the highest they’ve ever had, by a wide margin. This unit is good, even with some of its inconsistencies. Enjoy it.
The LSU defense has largely been responsible for keeping their team in games this season. They’ve held opponents to 10 points or less in 5 of their 7 games (yes, the games they lost were when the defense gave up 24 and 31 points). They’re very good at limiting explosiveness and keeping things in front of them. While the Front 7 doesn’t generate a lot of sacks, the secondary is top ten in the country in havoc created (although part of that is based on one game where they hauled in 5 INTs against DJ Lagway). They’ve been pretty good in Blake Baker’s second year as DC, but the cracks might have started showing last week against the Commodores, who rushed for 239 yards and 3 TDs against the Tigers.
Aggie Defense vs Tiger Offense
How bad was the Aggie performance in Fayetteville last weekend? Well, the Aggies fell out of the Top 20 in DSP+, are now one of the worst defenses in the country against explosive runs, and Coach Elko refused to name a defensive player of the game. People will be concerned about this defense’s ability to travel, but I’d point out that the two offenses they faced on the road this season so far are two of the best offenses in the country, regardless of where you look. I choose to believe they’re more of what they showed us in previous matchups, an efficient defense that gets after the QB and plays well on the back end.
They’ll face a Tiger offense that hasn’t found its footing in 2025 like most people expected. Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t quite been the Heisman hopeful many expected him to be, and it’s hard to say if that’s because the running game has been even less productive than last year, the offensive line is battling youth and injury, the revamped receiving crew isn’t as explosive as hoped, or some lingering offseason issue. Either way, the LSU offense doesn’t seem to present quite the same challenge that the Razorbacks did last week.
So What’s the Verdict?
It’s an eerie feeling being a favorite at Death Valley, even if it’s just a slight one. The Tiger defense is more in line with the Auburn squad that held the Aggies to just 16 points a few weeks ago, and even if they haven’t reached their potential this season, the offense has all the means to move the ball effectively. I think the Aggie defense is going to reset after last week’s tough showing, and LSU is not exactly built to push them in the same way Arkansas was (Mobile QB with a solid run game around him). The offense needs to continue to run the ball like they have the last couple of weeks, and Marcel has to take care of the ball. They may not put up 30+ like they have the last few matchups, and that’s okay because I don’t think they’ll need to.
My Prediction: I think at some point, the Aggies will trip up, and it’s likely to be in one of these last 3 road games. But currently, for some reason, I’m more worried about that happening in the next Tiger game than I am this one. I’m guessing it’s a bit of a slog but the Aggies win 27-21 and we can continue to watch The Pulse on Wednesday nights with a smile on our face.
Final Notes
As always, I appreciate you showing up for our little stats deep dive every week. We’ll take a break for the bye week and come back to talk about the Tigers ROUND 3 in November.
- Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
- ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info (as well as the FPI rankings). You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
- CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.
- And finally my blog can be found here, in case you’re not getting enough of my writing.
