TCR Bracketology 11.0: What’s at stake during Champ Week

It’s finally here. When people talk about March Madness, they usually mean the NCAA Tournament. Personally, I love conference tournament time just as much. In the power conferences, you get to see hated rivals go at each other one day after another. Bubble teams making their last push. Low major tournaments tend to be filled with drama, with teams laying it all on the line for a chance to lose to Duke in the first round.

So far, we have already seen a fantastic Arch Madness end with favorite Belmont

getting taken behind the woodshed by 6-14 Drake, UIC reaching the final in search of its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2004 before having it taken away from them by Northern Iowa, a team that is no stranger to March runs. As I am typing this, Preston Edmead just banked in a three in overtime with 0.3 left to win an incredibly entertaining game for Hofstra. In the Conference USA Tourney, Jacksonville State hit a buzzer beater so ruthless to beat UTEP, that a UTEP fan threw a temper tantrum eerily similar to my 2-year-old:

What is in store for Illinois this week? After beating two Big Ten bottom feeders this past week, Illinois maintained its spot as the final 2-seed. The way I see it, if Illinois wins on Friday it locks up a 2-seed. While Saturday’s games tend not to matter much to the committee, beating Michigan would be a statement, and depending on Houston, UConn, and Michigan State results in their respective tournaments, could move Illinois the second or third 2-seed. If Illinois loses its tournament opener on Friday, they could slide to a 3-seed if Iowa State and/or Nebraska win their games through Friday.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State and UCLA have locked up their tourney bids with strong finishes to the season, making at least nine bids a certainty. USC has fallen completely off the bubble down the stretch, leaving Indiana as the lone Big Ten bubble team (my second team out right now). Indiana probably needs to beat the winner of Northwestern/Penn State as well as their second game against Purdue to have a decent chance. If they can somehow win a third game on Friday against Nebraska, that would truly seal the deal.

Elsewhere around the country, this is what to watch for on the bubble. Every team currently projected on the 10-line or higher is already locked, barring an unprecedented number of bid stealers. UCF needs to win one game to seal their spot. The last four in currently are VCU, Texas, SMU, and San Diego State, in that order. VCU will need to make the A-10 championship to maintain their spot. Texas just needs to beat Ole Miss in their opener and they are most likely in as well. SMU, San Diego State and the first four out should plan on winning at least two, maybe three games to make their case and pray for no bid stealers.

The bid stealers to pay attention to: Miami (Ohio) needs to be in the tournament at this point, if a very good Akron team beats them in the Championship that takes a spot. Utah State is a tourney lock in the Mountain West and Saint Louis in the A-10, both those conferences have teams right at or below the bubble that should focus on securing their spots automatic bid to avoid any anxiety on Selection Sunday.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke (Greenville)
2. Illinois (Saint Louis)
3. Purdue (Greenville)
4. Kansas (Portland)
5. Arkansas
6. Louisville
7. BYU
8. Ohio State
9. Georgia
10. NC State
11. VCU/Texas
12. Yale
13. North Dakota State
14. Hofstra
15. Tennessee State
16. Bethune-Cookman/Lehigh

Notes on the Region:

This is the lottery pick region. Six likely top 10 picks reside in this region (and all the top 3 picks), with Cam Boozer (Duke), Keaton Wagler (Duh), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), Darius Acuff (Arkansas), Mikel Brown (Louisville), and AJ Dybantsa (BYU) all jockeying for scouting eyes.

Illinois starts off with the Tennessee State Tigers, whose TSU logo looks like legitimate plagiarism of LSU’s tiger logo (unless TSU made it first, in which case, shame on you, LSU). Tennessee State wins by winning the possession battle, forcing turnovers at a high rate and winning the rebounding battle. Illinois does not turn the ball over much even against high pressure, and the Tigers have no one over 6-foot-8 so rebounding will be a problem for them.

In the next round, BYU and NC State are both talented second round opponents who are floundering down the stretch. I imagine Underwood will put Kylan Boswell on AJ Dybantsa if we get BYU. Kylan gives up a lot of size and Dybantsa can make tough, contested mid-range jumpers better than almost anyone in the sport, so I expect Dybantsa to get his, but BYU’s defense is in tatters, so he’ll have to get more than his if they want to pull the upset.

The Sweet Sixteen is a Big Ten rematch with another team that looks lost in March. The matchup with Purdue is possible because Purdue is the fifth seeded Big Ten team, and Illinois and Purdue only played once this year. Since we last saw Keaton Wagler putting 46 on Purdue, their defense has only gotten worse. There is a good chance they don’t make it past Louisville.

In the Elite Eight, we draw the top overall seed. Going further than Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament means something here, because passing them on the seed line makes it more likely we get placed in Arizona’s region rather than a Duke team that looks fairly unstoppable right now.

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan (Buffalo)
2. Houston (Oklahoma City)
3. Gonzaga (Portland)
4. Vanderbilt (San Diego)
5. Texas Tech
6. Wisconsin
7. Kentucky
8. Clemson
9. Texas A&M
10. Santa Clara
11. UCF
12. Stephen F. Austin
13. Utah Valley
14. UC Irvine
15. Furman
16. Queens/Howard

Notes on the Region:

Texas Tech recovered valiantly after losing its All-American power forward JT Toppin for the season, winning their next three games including one over Iowa State, but have come back to earth losing their last two. They draw an in-state threat in Stephen F. Austin, who has a real chance in this matchup without the interior scoring threat for the Red Raiders.

Wisconsin has proven it can beat some of the best teams in the country this year, with wins against Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue. They can score with anyone in the country, but do they have enough defense to get past Gonzaga? Winning that one is my ceiling for them, as I do not see them beating either Houston or Michigan a second time.

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona (San Diego)
2. UConn (Philadelphia)
3. Nebraska (Oklahoma City)
4. Alabama (Tampa Bay)
5. North Carolina
6. Saint Mary’s
7. Miami (FL)
8. Utah State
9. Iowa
10. TCU
11. SMU/San Diego State
12. Northern Iowa
13. High Point
14. Portland State
15. Merrimack
16. Long Island

Notes on the Region:

UConn’s shocking loss in their regular season finale to Marquette sends the Huskies down to the 2-line and psychotic Dan Hurley to the locker room early. He gets the winner of TCU-Miami, which features a trio of Big Ten cast offs, with ex-Iowa guard Brock Harding at TCU, and Malik Reneau (Indiana) and Tre Donaldson starring for Miami.

On the top half of the bracket, Arizona either gets a rematch with Alabama or a reunion with North Carolina. In their non-conference game earlier this year, Arizona blew out the Crimson Tide 96-75, one of only four teams to hold the juggernaut offense in the seventies. With North Carolina, center Henri Veesaar was in Tucson the past two years as a role player, before blossoming into the primary wingman for Caleb Wilson. With Wilson out for the season, Veesaar will need to take the leading role.

South (Houston)

1. Florida (Tampa Bay)
2. Michigan State (Buffalo)
3. Iowa State (Saint Louis)
4. Virginia (Philadelphia)
5. Saint John’s
6. Tennessee
7. Villanova
8. UCLA
9. Saint Louis
10. Mizzou
11. Miami (OH)
12. South Florida
13. Liberty
14. Troy
15. Wright State
16. UMBC

Notes on the Region:

UCLA versus Saint Louis is an 8-9 matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions. Saint Louis looked untouchable through much of A-10 play but have lost three times in the last three weeks, including most recently an 86-57 gobsmacking by George Mason. Meanwhile, Mick Cronin and UCLA have regrouped from a brutal Michigan road trip to finish the season 4-1, including signature wins over Illinois and Nebraska. UCLA over Florida would be the most likely 8-1 upset I could see happening in this iteration.

Speaking of upsets, this region has Miami (OH), South Florida and Liberty, each of whom I would consider the most dangerous team on their line. Liberty gets an in-state rivalry with an unexperienced Virginia team that could find the moment too big. Saint John’s are actually the Big East regular season champions over UConn, but I could see that offensively challenged team falling to a well-coached South Florida. I pray Miami (OH) draws an SEC team and beats them in the first round to quiet Bruce Pearl in his nepotism lobbying. Meanwhile, his son and Auburn can enjoy getting sent home early from the NIT or The Crown.

First Four Out: New Mexico, Indiana, Virginia Tech, Stanford

Next Four Out: Boise State, Auburn, Cal, Cincinnati

Bids By Conference:

SEC: 10

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 8

ACC: 8

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3

Mountain West: 2

Atlantic 10: 2