When the calendar turns to March, the two certainties surrounding Ole Miss sports are cries that Mike Bianco is a bum, and Yolett McPhee-McCuin has her team in yet another NCAA Tournament.
After running up a 23-11 record this season, which featured three wins against top 5 teams, the Lady Rebs earned a 5 seed in the Sacramento Region and head to Minneapolis to face the 12th-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs on Friday. Should they win, Ole Miss will play the winner of the NFC North championship in Minnesota
(4) and Green Bay (13) on Sunday.
As you might expect, everyone was excited to see their name called:
If you’re updating the historical ledgers in your home, the last time the Lady Rebels didn’t make the NCAA Tournament was back in 2021 when some crazy bastard named Lane Kiffin was preparing for his second season in charge of Ole Miss football. What ever happened to that guy, you ask? Who’s to say?
Since 2022, Ole Miss’ NCAA Tournament history looks like this:
- 2022 (7 seed) – first-round loss to South Dakota State (10)
- 2023 (8 seed) – lost to Louisville (5) in the Sweet 16*
- 2024 (7 seed) – lost to Notre Dame (2) in the second round
- 2025 (5 seed) – lost to UCLA (1) in the Sweet 16
- 2026 (5 seed) – TBD
*They beat Gonzaga in the first round and upset Stanford (1) in the second round in Palo Alto to reach the Sweet 16.
If you’re doing the math, that’s a 50 percent hit rate for making the Sweet 16 from Coach Yo’s teams. That is, uh, pretty good.
Should Ole Miss bump that percentage up to 60 with wins on Friday and Sunday, they will most likely face UCLA (1) again in the Sweet 16, unless California Baptist walks on water in the first round. We will also accept Oklahoma State or Princeton dabbling in miracles in the second round.
But to paraphrase Norman Dale, you can’t get to the Sweet 16 without taking the steps in front of you. So what about Gonzaga?
Brief aside: “Leave the ball, will you, George” is one of the great roasts.
Just like I did with the men’s team a few weeks ago, let’s look at the Four Factors. These are four key statistics that relate to winning:
- Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG; measures efficiency and valuing 3-pointers more)
- Turnover Percentage (how often a team turns it over per 100 possessions)
- Offensive Rebounding Percentage (percentage of available rebounds a team gets on offense)
- Free Throw Rate (how often a team gets to the free throw line)
The idea being, if you have good numbers in all these categories, you’ll be more efficient on offense and score more points. And if you prevent teams from doing well in these categories, you’ll be more efficient on defense and allow fewer points.
Let’s see how Ole Miss and Gonzaga match up. Also, these numbers are not adjusted for schedule strength. According to Walter Nolan, Ole Miss’ schedule rank is 13th, and Gonzaga’s is 74th. And the NCAA’s Net Rankings have Ole Miss at 20 and Gonzaga at 61.
eFG
- Ole Miss offense – 122nd vs. Gonzaga defense – 178th
- Gonzaga offense – 29th vs. Ole Miss defense – 171st
Both defenses are middle of the pack (out of 363 teams), but Gonzaga has a little more sauce on offense. Ole Miss isn’t bad, but they’re not great offensive team.
Turnover Percentage
- Ole Miss offense – 47th vs. Gonzaga defense – 297th
- Gonzaga offense – 219th vs. Ole Miss defense – 75th
And we arrive at our first mismatch. Gonzaga turns it over a lot, and Ole Miss is pretty good at forcing turnovers. A great way for Ole Miss to negate the Bulldogs’ eFG is turn them over and reduce the number of possession they have.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
- Ole Miss offense – 11th vs. Gonzaga defense – 27th
- Gonzaga offense – 17th vs. Ole Miss defense – 114th
Both offense are outstanding at grabbing rebounds and creating extra possessions. Ole Miss is a decent defensive rebounding team, but Gonzaga is very good.
To invoke the spirit of the legendary Dave Rowe of Jefferson Pilot Sports, the matchup here is a classic BIG MAN ON BIG MAN situation. Who will win the battle in strength on strength?
Free Throw Rate
- Ole Miss offense – 27th vs. Gonzaga defense – 165th
- Gonzaga offense – 172nd vs. Ole Miss defense – 265th
Ole Miss is very good at getting to the free throw line, and Gonzaga is a little sloppy in letting teams get there. Offensive rebounds and trips to the free throw line are a big part of how Ole Miss scores.
The Bulldogs aren’t great at getting to the free throw line, but Ole Miss fouls too much on defense and gives away free scoring opportunities. Ole Miss will need to do their best to limit those chance for Gonzaga.
It’s a game Ole Miss should win, but Gonzaga does enough things well enough that they could hang around and make it interesting. And remember, the goal for Ole Miss in a single-elimination tournament is to win. Style points ain’t matter.
Finally, if Ole Miss wins and takes on NFC North champ Minnesota, let’s look at that matchup. Walter Nolan has Minnesota at 39th (Ole Miss 13th), and the Net Rankings have the Gophers at 9th (Ole Miss 20th).
eFG
- Ole Miss offense – 122nd vs. Minnesota defense – 163rd
- Minnesota offense – 60th vs. Ole Miss defense – 171st
Like the Gonzaga matchup, both defenses are middle of the pack, but the Gophers have more punch on offense than Ole Miss does.
Turnover Percentage
- Ole Miss offense – 47th vs. Minnesota defense – 93rd
- Minnesota offense – 3rd vs. Ole Miss defense – 75th
Unlike Gonzaga, Minnesota does not turn it over, and they’re much better than the Zags at creating turnovers. It’s probably going to be difficult for Ole Miss to generate extra possessions through defensive pressure, and they have to keep taking care of the ball on offense.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
- Ole Miss offense – 11th vs. Minnesota defense – 7th
- Minnesota offense – 62nd vs. Ole Miss defense – 114th
[extreme Dave Rowe voice]
BIG MAN ON BIG MAN, MY FELLOW DAVES.
Ole Miss is an elite offensive rebounding team, and Minnesota is an elite defensive rebounding team. Who walks away the winner in that category?
Ole Miss will also be tested with Minnesota’s offensive rebounding abilities.
Free Throw Rate
- Ole Miss offense – 27th vs. Minnesota defense – 35th
- Minnesota offense – 329th vs. Ole Miss defense – 265th
Still a BIG MAN ON BIG MAN situation, as Ole Miss gets to the free throw line, but Minnesota is very good at not allowing teams to get there.
On the other side, Minnesota does not generate free scoring opportunities, so it would behoove a foul friendly Ole Miss team to make sure they don’t help them out.
Obviously, Minnesota would be a step up in class over Gonzaga, and Ole Miss’ margin for error would shrink considerably. But whatever issues the Gophers present wouldn’t be something new to Ole Miss.
If the Rebels get by Minnesota, we’ll run the stats for the Sweet 16 then, but today we’re abiding by Norman Dale rules.
