There are a lot of things that you can’t control in baseball. Pitchers can’t control where a batter hits a ball, or even if they swing at all. Batters can’t really control where they hit the ball. And neither party can perfectly place or avoid the defense for any given hit. A lot of baseball is, well, luck. It makes the game exciting, and it makes it infuriating.
So when things aren’t going well—for the Kansas City Royals offense right now, for instance—complaining about chance doesn’t help things get
better. Managers have precious few levers they can pull. But one of the levers they can pull is in regard to lineup construction, and it’s time for Matt Quatraro to make some moves.
The good news about the Royals offense is that their first two hitters are doing an incredible job of setting the table. Maikel Garcia continues to be the full package, with a triple slash so far of .306/.380/.484. He’s hit for average. He’s hit for power. 10/10, no notes. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr.’s power hasn’t been there this year, but Witt has an on base percentage of .371 so far and drew three walks in yesterday’s White Sox finale.
Where things are going wrong is that all that on base ability is dying on the vine. Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, the third and cleanup hitters, respectively, have been…horrific. Vinnie’s .153/.246/.169 triple slash is only outdone by Salvy’s somehow uglier .153/.219/.288; yes, that’s an OBP of .219. Two nineteen!
So far, Quatraro has kept them in the lineup because of a few reasons. Chief among them is that Vinnie and Salvy have established themselves as reliable run producers. Over the past two years, the duo has combined for 108 home runs and 414 runs batted in. Another other reason is that both Vinnie and Salvy have established themselves as respected veteran leaders not just in Kansas City but throughout the league. You don’t just boot them those types of players down the lineup because of a few weeks of poor hitting.
Except you’ve read the title of this piece: it’s time to shake something up. It really starts with Perez, and I think some visuals are in order, so let’s look at this graph:
The lifeblood of any offense is on base percentage. I’ve written this before, and I’ll do it again, but this becomes obvious when you refrain offense as a resource-protection machine. Outs are the only finite part of baseball, and once you run out of them, the game is done. Doing the most with the outs that you have—IE, slugging—is important. But even there, you can’t hit a super homer or a daily double double worth extra runs; you’re limited to a maximum of four bases per plate appearance. You’re not limited to how many outs you can avoid making, and that’s why OBP is king.
Salvy has never been an OBP king, but the last few years he has struggled to be even an OBP pauper. Since 2025, Perez ranks dead last in OBP among the 50 players who’ve accrued 700 or more plate appearances. Lower the requirement to 500 PAs, and Salvy ranks 166 out of 172 players. And as the graph shows, there’s a general downward trajectory Here. He hasn’t sustained a .350 OBP over any 50-game stretch since the first half of 2024, while he’s spent increasingly long stretches below the .275 OBP line.
Salvy is a Royals legend. He’s got a legitimate Hall of Fame case—not just Royals Hall of Fame, but Cooperstown Hall of Fame. He still has big power and can still impact the game. But you simply cannot have such an on base sinkhole in the middle of a lineup that is not deep enough to weather it. And while I think Vinnie will come around, the last thousand and a half plate appearances suggests that his reputation is bigger than his impact at the plate: since 2023 and over 1,560 PA, Vinnie has hit .257/.317/.447—only a 108 wRC+. Vinnie is a good hitter, he really is. But he is not a great hitter, and the data bears this out.
What’s the solution, then? Here are a couple potential lineups that I think versions of which would be worth considering. Against right-handed pitchers:
- Maikel Garcia (3B)
- Carter Jensen (DH)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)
- Jac Caglianone (RF)
- Salvador Perez (C)
- Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)
- Isaac Collins (LF)
- Michael Massey (2B)
- Kyle Isbel (CF)
Against left-handed pitchers:
- Maikel Garcia (3B)
- Isaac Collins (LF)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)
- Carter Jensen (C)
- Salvador Perez (1B)
- Jac Caglianone (RF)
- Starling Marte (DH)
- Jonathan India (2B)
- Starling Marte (CF)
Part of the Royals’ problem is that Vinnie and Salvy aren’t the only issues right now. Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone have struggled in different ways this year, and putting Cags at the cleanup spot could be more pressure than he can handle. If that’s the case, you could always just swap him and Vinnie in my proposed lineup against righties. And, sure, Vinnie will see his share of lefties; the Royals aren’t deep enough for that to happen.
But my point here is that the Royals have to shift some things around here. Their pitching staff has been killing it, but the team has a losing record because they can’t score—and they can’t score because their lineup is throttling baserunners as soon as they get on. It’s time for some sort of change, at least temporarily. And the best part? If it doesn’t work, you can always switch back…
…although the current situation ain’t working at all. Not much to lose, at least for a bit.
