Last week ATS: 8-9 (5-3 National, 3-6 B1G)
Season ATS: 30-32 (9-14 National, 21-18 B1G)
Last week was tough to swallow since our record for the week could have been so much better.
Georgia missed by the hook, Oregon was up 34-0 before giving up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and Ohio State waited until the second half to put some distance on Ohio. Other results like trusting in Wisconsin and UCLA to cover were pure stupidity by me. This week’s goal is to push our season record over .500 before some big matchups next week. There are three matchups between ranked teams this week,
which will be fun to watch.
The action across the country on Saturday will help cushion the blow of not having Ohio State playing this week.
National Games
No. 17 Texas Tech v. No. 16 Utah (-2.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
One of the most entertaining teams in the country so far this season has been Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have scored at least 45 points in each of their three wins.
Behren Morton has thrown 11 touchdowns, and is coming off a game where he threw for 464 yards against Oregon State. This week will go a long way in letting us know how good the Texas Tech defense is since they’ll be facing a talented Utah attack.
Beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State is one thing. Going to Salt Lake City and shutting down the Utes is a challenge I’m not sure the Red Raiders are ready for.
New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier is a dynamic quarterback who gives Utah a threat we haven’t seen in a while. Add in a stout defense and I feel like the Utes establish themselves as the favorite in the Big 12.
Utah 37, Texas Tech 27
No. 22 Auburn v. No. 11 Oklahoma (-6.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Will this be the Jackson Arnold revenge game? The former Oklahoma quarterback returns to Norman, looking to hand the Sooners their first loss of the season. Arnold has been just as good running the football this year as he has been throwing the rock, with his four rushing touchdowns matching the four he has thrown for.
Prior to the season I had Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables on the hot seat. So far Venables has made me eat my words, as the Sooners have started the season 3-0. There is still a lot of work to be done since Oklahoma has an absolutely brutal SEC schedule.
Even though John Mateer has been really good in his first three games with the Sooners, I think this game ends up being decided by a field goal.
Oklahoma 31, Auburn 28
Florida v. No. 4 Miami (FL) (-7.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
This line is perplexing. I guess if Vegas is trying to set a trap, I’m falling for it hook, line, and sinker.
Florida lost at home a couple weeks ago to a South Florida team that Miami beat last week by 37 points. As if that wasn’t enough to make me side with the Hurricanes, Florida quarterback D.J. Lagway threw five interceptions last week against LSU.
Just imagine the mistakes that the pressure of the Hurricanes is going to force Lagway into on Saturday night.
I just don’t see how the Gators keep this game within 10 points. Florida head coach Billy Napier likely won’t survive the season in Gainesville unless things get turned around real quick. Miami is going to be playing with a ton of confidence while it looks like Florida is playing scared.
Miami (FL) 31, Florida 14
B1G Games
Iowa (-2.5) v. Rutgers – Friday 8:00 p.m. ET – FOX
If you’re looking for a bit of sleepy time tea on Friday night to knock you out early so you’re rested for Saturday, this is the game for you!
Iowa’s two wins this year have come against FCS schools, while Rutgers also has a win over an FCS squad, as well as two MAC teams. The Hawkeyes at least have hit the road in 2025, although this will be their first time leaving the state.
What worries me about Rutgers is they had such a tough time dealing with Ohio’s Parker Navarro. I could see Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski making some plays with his legs, which is something he did so well with South Dakota State.
The Hawkeye defense is still nasty and will force Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis into a couple mistakes that will decide the game.
Iowa 24, Rutgers 17
No. 21 Michigan (-2.5) v. Nebraska – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Michigan might actually be a better team with Sherrone Moore sitting at home. I know dropping 63 on
The easy win was necessary after a tough loss at Oklahoma the previous week. Both Bryce Underwood and Justice Haynes ran for over 100 yards against the Chippewas.
Patrick Mahomes cosplayer Dylan Raiola has done a great job at avoiding mistakes in the first three games of the season, throwing eight interceptions and zero interceptions. Although it’s easy to put up big numbers when taking on teams like Akron and Houston Christian.
Trying to do so against Michigan is a whole different animal. The Wolverines will be a little too much for Raiola.
Michigan 27, Nebraska 20
No. 9 Illinois v. No. 19 Indiana (-5.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Much like last season, I’m wondering if Indiana is for real.
Francisco Mendoza has been incredible in his first three games for the Hoosiers after transferring from Cal, throwing nine touchdowns. Then again, those numbers are a bit inflated because they have come against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State.
This feels like one of the biggest home games in school history since it will be under the lights in Bloomington against a top-10 team.
Some of the concerns about Indiana can also be raised about Illinois, since wins against Western Illinois and Western Michigan are givens. What does inspire some confidence about the Fighting Illini was going on the road a couple weeks ago and taking care of business at Duke.
Bret Bielema knows he has a team capable of making the playoff and he has a quarterback in Luke Altmyer who can lead Illinois there. Not only do the Fighting Illini cover, they win straight up in one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.
Illinois 34, Indiana 30
Rapid Fire Picks
National
Arkansas (-7.5) v. Memphis – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Arkansas 37, Memphis 24
SMU v. TCU (-6.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
TCU 45, SMU 34
Tulane v. No. 13 Ole Miss (-11.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 31
South Carolina v. No. 23 Missouri (-11.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Missouri 28, South Carolina 21
Arizona State v. Baylor (-2.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – FOX
Baylor 34, Arizona State 27
B1G
Maryland v. Wisconsin (-10.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – NBC
Wisconsin 24, Maryland 20
Oregon State v. Oregon (-35.5) – 3:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Oregon 59, Oregon State 10
Purdue v. No. 24 Notre Dame (-24.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Notre Dame 34, Purdue 17
Washington (-20.5) v. Washington State – 7:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Washington 41, Washington State 14
Michigan State v. No. 25 USC (-18.5) – 11:00 p.m. ET – FOX
USC 35, Michigan State 20
