This weekend will be one of celebration for the New England Patriots. On Saturday, former tight end Rob Gronkowski will be inducted into the organization’s Hall of Fame, followed by an event honoring the 10-year anniversary of the club’s 2016 Super Bowl victory.
Will the 2026 version of the team be able to add to the good feelings against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday? The oddsmakers seem to believe so, and the statistical comparison also favors them in certain areas.
However, a closer head-to-head
look shows that a victory is not a guarantee.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: This is probably the pick that has the biggest potential to come back to bite us. However, we are not entirely confident in New England’s passing offense against the Packers. Granted, Drake Maye has been fantastic since the calendar turned to October and Mack Hollins might be coming back from injured reserve to bolster a shorthanded receiver group, but this is not the Dolphins they are going up against: Green Bay has been disruptive in the front and opportunistic in the back, and has both the scheme and personnel — even without Micah Parsons — to challenge the Patriots’ weak spots and personnel shortcomings along the offensive line and at the skill positions. | Edge: Packers
Patriots pass defense vs. Packers pass offense: New England’s passing defense has been very good when playing man-to-man coverage (-0.36 EPA/dropback; 3rd), but suspect whenever Zak Kuhr opted to switch to zone (0.23 EPA/dropback; 30th). Finding the balance is a challenge, as he said himself last week, but it should be easier to do so against the Packers: Jordan Love is not a threat as a runner, which should play into the Patriots’ hands. He also has three clear favorite targets in Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft, meaning that if New England can limit their damage and put pressure on an injury-plagued offensive line, they should be able to keep the NFL’s passing yards leader in check. | Edge: Patriots
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Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Packers run defense: Taking both teams’ production so far into account, this might be the Week 9 game with the least productive combined run games. Unsurprisingly, we are giving both defenses the edge. The first battle will see a New England offensive line that has had its issues blocking the run, particularly along the interior, go up against a generally stout run defense ranked in the top half of the league in yards per run (3.9) and EPA per run (-0.108). Rhamondre Stevenson has impressed so far as the clear RB1, but blocking consistency remains a concern. | Edge: Packers
Patriots run defense vs. Packers rushing offense: You think the Patriots run game has been bad? The Packers have been abysmal moving the ball on the ground. Obviously, it did not help that Josh Jacobs has been limited to two games following a domestic violence incident that remains under investigation, but the main issue — just like in New England — has been the blocking. The right side of the offensive line in particular has struggled, which is no surprise given that is dealing with some of the same personnel problems that have plagued the Patriots through most of the season. New England’s run defense, meanwhile, has quietly developed into a solid unit ranking 14th in EPA per run (-0.104) and 10th in yards per attempt allowed (3.8). | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Packers have been slightly better than the Patriots returning kickoffs and punts, and in kickoff coverage, while New England enjoys a minor edge covering punts. What tips the scale the home team’s way in this one is the place kicking. Sure Andy Borregales has not set the world on fire in his second season as a pro, but his 88.2% combined success rate on field goals and extra points is still leaps and bounds better than Packers rookie Trey Smack’s 77.2% — the worst such number among regular kickers in the NFL so far this year. Add that Borregales has familiarity with the Gillette Stadium wind patterns, and he looks like the more trustworthy option come Sunday. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
The Packers are an all-around solid teams that is doing the best with what it has available. The Patriots are in a similar boat, which is why both teams are 5-3 right now even though they have had to deal with some serious injuries over the first two months of the season. We are giving Mike Vrabel and company the smallest of edges, in part because their home record so far (3-0) is superior to Green Bay’s on the road (2-2) — a sign of a team’s abilities to adapt to travel and hostile environments. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
Despite being slight favorites, the Patriots beating the Packers on Sunday is not a given. If they come out like they did last week versus Miami, they might find themselves in a hole bigger than 10 points — and possibly too big to overcome. There is reason to be optimistic that that will not be the case again, but the message is clear: Green Bay is well-equipped to take advantage of any potential slip-ups, and New England needs to be on top of its game from start to finish in order to move to 6-3 on the season.
