At the time of this publication, we are on the threshold of the LCS, when the intensity of playoff baseball gets taken up a notch. Not that the Wild Card round or the Divisional-round series haven’t had
their drama. Playoff baseball, where one swing, one throw, one action is the difference between moving on towards the World Series or seeing the season end, will always have that drama. For the Astros’ fan, it is a bit odd watching all of this from home, with no major stake in the outcome. Still, the Houston fan can take some things from how the playoffs are going, and perhaps it offers some insight into how close or how far the Astros are from getting back to the postseason. With that, a few observations as well as any Astros-related equities/considerations.
Did the Phillies miss their chance? If ever there was a team built for October, it was the Philadelphia Phillies. They have bats that can mash homers (Harper, Schwarber, Turner), which are critical in games where scoring runs is at a premium. They generally have strong starting pitching (even with Weaver out, they still have quality starters with playoff experience) and they even secured one of the top closers in the game (Duran). They’ve made the NLDS via WC win or bye for four straight seasons. In 2022, they were two games away from winning the World Series. However, they have gotten no closer. Much is made of how the magic of their home stadium, which did so much to propel them to that 2022 WS and to a 3-2 lead in the 2023 NLCS, is seemingly failing them, as they have dropped 5 of their last 6 home playoff games. The Dodgers added to their misery, taking the 1st two games of the NLDS in Philly. The squad, in theory, is made for this time of year, but they haven’t delivered. Even if they do make a comeback in LA, will they still have enough to finally get that trophy?
Astros considerations: Sure, the 2023 Astros joined the 2023 Phillies in squandering their 3-2 LCS lead at home and like Philly, haven’t been that close since. However, Houston did cash in on getting that WS in 2022, and to go along with 2017 (silence Yankees and Dodgers fans), they more than validated their approach. If Philly goes another season without a WS win, just how many shots will they get? The President of Baseball Operations Dombrowski is noted for his aggressive approach, much like his time in Detroit, but this Phillies squad risks being like those Detroit teams…good, but not good enough to get that coveted ring.
Dodgers got bullpen problems? Go with the starters: No surprise that the Dodgers are back in the postseason, but they come into this postseason with a glaring weakness: Their bullpen sucks. They have the offense, and they are getting many of their high-priced starters back into the fold. Yet, their standard high-leverage guys, those that couldn’t deliver in the regular season, just aren’t delivering in the playoffs. Sure, the Dodgers opened the postseason 4-0, but no thanks to the bullpen. They barely escaped Game 2 against the Reds, even though the Reds, down 8-4, had the bases loaded and the tying run at the plate in the 8th. Against Philly, in Game 2, they saw a comfortable 4-0 9th inning lead nearly evaporate, and if not for some Philly blunders, might have blown that game. At least for the postseason, Dave Roberts can leverage his plethora of starters to try to augment a leaky bullpen. So far…well, wins in the playoffs are wins in the playoffs. Yet, if the Dodgers want to be the 1st team to repeat since 2000, the starters working relief must come through.
Astros considerations: Dodgers really don’t want to hear this, so we will gladly tell them that they are borrowing from the 2017 Astros. That 2017 team, loaded with offense galore and one of the stronger starting rotations in recent team history, didn’t have the greatest of bullpens. Thus, AJ Hinch leveraged many of his starters to try to cover up some bullpen weaknesses. This culminated with the platooning of Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton in consecutive Game 7s (ALCS, WS). Also, starters like Colin McHugh found themselves working multiple innings to save the exposure of the limited bullpen arms. The postseason, with compressed timelines and higher pressure, lends itself to an all-hands-on-deck approach, and with the starter depth on the 20217 Astros and 2025 Dodgers, it makes sense.
AJ Hinch, playoff winner: A stat was recently making the rounds before Game 4 of the ALDS that in Detroit’s last four wins, they were popping champagne after two them. They won one game in Boston in the final series of the regular season (1st time), which was enough to get them into the 6th seed. Then, they somewhat rediscovered their old winning ways, taking down the Guardians in 3 at Cleveland (2nd time when they closed out the series). They even stole Game 1 of the ALDS in Seattle. Yet, by advancing out of the Wild Card for the 2nd straight year, AJ Hinch is yet again a playoff winner. Since 2015, when an AJ Hinch managed team gets to the playoffs, they will win at least one playoff round. Maybe he still has some stigma from the 2020 revelations and many will question his actions in Detroit’s near-epic late season swoon, but his teams still make some positive noise once in the postseason.
Astros considerations: Houston saw the good with this (2015 WC win, 2017 WS, 2018 ACLS appearance, 2019 WS appearance), as well as the bad (Detroit’s 2024 WC sweep in Houston). Houston is not slated to have a managerial opening for another year, but with Hinch’s playoff track record, you can at least understand why some corners of the Astros’ interwebs might want a reunion.
Aaron Judge has his clutch postseason moment…maybe: Ah yes, the sub-narrative of the playoffs…when will Aaron Judge finally have a postseason worthy of his regular season greatness? That he doesn’t hit in the playoffs like he does in the regular season is a well-established headline. That doesn’t mean that Judge isn’t a great player, but given what he has accomplished in the regular season, it is a bit jarring that his playoff numbers just don’t match up. As we all know, it is never that simple. Pitching is tougher, teams are more cautious with him in the playoffs, the swings just don’t go his way, perhaps he presses, etc. That he is a captain on the New York Yankees only adds to that pressure. His massive homer in Game 3 against the Blue Jays saved the Yankees’ season for at least one night, but it was only for one night. He did have a 9th-inning RBI in Game 4, but it only extended the Yankees’ season for one more batter. Until the Yankees finally get Ring #28, and Judge replicates Reggie Jackson in a decisive WS game, he probably will have to forever deal with the headline of being a great player that couldn’t get it done in the playoffs.
Astros considerations: Well, given that Judge’s Yankees are 0-3 in playoff series against the Astros, Houston certainly helped write those headlines. Also, Houston stars have all managed to have their post-season moments in the sun that lead to actual rings (Altuve, Correa, Springer, Bregman, Alvarez, etc). Ok, most aren’t hitting in the regular season like Judge, but worry about stars not getting it done in the postseason…not as big an issue for Houston.
Pitching really matters: Setting aside the softball matchup that is the Blue Jays/Yankees, the teams that are winning this postseason are the squads whose pitching is dealing. In particular, if a starting pitcher can deal, the odds for victory improve significantly. The Wild Card round showed the value of good starting pitching, and in shorter series, a strong ace can make a major difference. The longer the playoff series go, pitching depth becomes that much more significant. Perhaps a lights-out bullpen can mitigate that, but best to have multiple prime starters.
Astros considerations: Houston knows this as well as any. If they had gotten to the playoffs, then the duo of Brown/Valdez might have been enough. Then again, how reliable would Valdez be? A major target for Houston this offseason will be finding quality starting pitching, especially as Valdez has likely played his last game in Houston.
Just a few observations for the playoffs as they stand now. Sure, you have a few Astros’ alum ballin’ to varying degrees (Springer Dingers, Bregman getting some key hits in New York, Tucker with an up-and-down postseason), so that helps for some interest. However, even with games with little direct Astros’ ties, there are some connections/considerations for the Houston fan, whether historical affirmation or future considerations. If nothing else, a chance to enjoy some high-stakes baseball without the emotional roller coaster that would be the Astros in said postseason.
