Very recently, I wrote an article here talking about the opportunity presented to the Yankees in 2026, competing for the top spot in an American League that lacked standout clubs. Some of their potential biggest adversaries were dealing with more than their fair share of issues in the Blue Jays and Mariners. Since then, the Yankees have continued to establish themselves as the best team in the AL, and at the moment their closest opponent is a largely anonymous Rays club that—while just a half-game
behind New York at 24-12—no one is entirely sure what their ceiling might be. Now, we’ll address how this particular outlook affects other teams besides the Yankees.
A significant number of teams that fought at the top last season are off to forgettable starts in both leagues. The Phillies and Blue Jays could’ve very easily won the championship last season, for instance. The difference between these two is that although there are powerhouses in their respective divisions, they face battles of different levels trying to play their way back into playoff contention. While we can make all the remarks about it still being early, the Junior Circuit is setting up in a pool of mediocrity, incapable of punishing a team’s slow start.
This is the jumbled mess as of the morning of May 7th. The Yankees and Rays are, in fact, literally the only teams with winning records.
The Astros and Angels are tied for the worst record in the AL, and they’re three games back of the last Wild Card spot. Do you want to guess how many National League clubs have at worst an equal gap between them and that last Wild Card spot? The answer is six. The hapless Mets are already 5.5 games out, with only the Giants and Rockies holding uglier records.
It’s fitting that the aforementioned Astros would occupy that particular spot at the moment because they are the perfect example of a team that has managed to waste potential but at the same time isn’t that far away from entering playoff contention—particularly when you look at their offensive production, boasting a team OPS+ of 113 (though now they’ll have to get by without Carlos Correa). Hunter Brown is working his way back from a shoulder injury, and Tatsuya Imai will return soon. If both of these pitchers perform at their highest level, this could be a totally different Houston team, and you just don’t need a whole lot to go your way before hovering in contender status.
The best record from all 10 combined AL Central and AL West teams is … .500. The Guardians and A’s lead their divisions with middling marks, and you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who is very optimistic about either pulling away for a 90+ win season. The A’s in particular would probably be delighted to merely finish .500, and they appear unlikely to deviate too far from there.
Houston is a good example of what might happen, and the Royals are an interesting example of what’s currently happening. Here is a team that looked like the worst in baseball for the better part of April—dropping eight in a row at one point—but they’re already back in the thick of things following a five-game winning streak, a game and a half behind Cleveland. The rebuilding Twins are not expected to be competitive but with a few wins here and there, they could almost accidentally end up in the mix too. And remember when the Red Sox looked to be in complete disarray after firing Alex Cora? They woke up that morning tied with KC for the league’s worst record at 9-17; the underwhelming play of much of the Junior Circuit could very well allow them to remain in the Wild Card mix after winning 7 of their last 11 games.
Obviously, this early in the year, a five-game winning streak will dramatically affect the outlook of basically any team, but this seems to be the likely scenario moving forward in the AL. One or two teams might take the opportunity to stand out and secure a solid place as a contender, while nearly the whole pack could manage to stay within striking distance of a Wild Card spot. That could very well affect the Trade Deadline, as teams on the fence are wary of missing out on a chance to sneak into this postseason. The 2024 Tigers and 2025 Diamondbacks at least represent recent models of teams that sold parts but competed for playoff spots in the second half anyway.
If you’re looking for a way to highlight just how much this Yankees team stands out from the rest of the AL right now—as the team’s records don’t do it justice—the Yankees have a run differential of +74, more than double the amount of all other teams with a positive run differential combined. The next single highest is the Rays at +15. That’s the sound of opportunity knocking; we’ll see if New York can take advantage as the summer approaches and begins.
