The recent promotions of Dylan Beavers and Samuel Basallo—and their successful debuts—have created an aura of confidence around the Orioles lineup. Sure, there are some finer details to iron out before next season. However, a top eight of Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Basallo, Beavers, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo/Ryan Mountcastle is a pretty rock-solid foundation for a strong offense heading into 2026.
The pitching, as ever, is less certain. If this past offseason
is anything to go on, we can expect Mike Elias & Co. to prioritize starting pitching depth ahead of big-name pitching signings. After all, heading into 2025, the Orioles had ten pitchers on their 40-man roster with major league experience (Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Cade Povich, Tyler Wells, Albert Suárez and Chayce McDermott) as well as 35-year-old rookie Tomoyuki Sugano and the relatively unknown Brandon Young.
Of course, Rodriguez, Bradish and Wells started the year on the IL and were joined there by McDermott, Suárez, Efflin and Povich at various points in the season. Elias’s insistence on maintaining an abundance of organizational depth is good news for the futures of Young, Povich and Sugano.
Breakout years from Trevor Rogers and Dean Kremer mean they’re likely to be the first names penciled into next year’s rotation. Kyle Bradish will make his final rehab start later this week in Norfolk, before rejoining the rotation before the end of the month. Bradish will likely get around five starts in 2025 to show he’s healthy and ready to reclaim his perch atop the rotation in 2026. If his next six outings are anything like his most recent rehab start—5 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER and 9 K—confidence in his 2026 bounce back should be high.
The last two rotation spots are up in the air. Some will optimistically put Grayson Rodriguez’s name up for consideration, though his injury record has others completely discounting G-Rod. Many want the Orioles to target two big-name pitchers in free agency, with names like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Dylan Cease often connected to the Orioles in speculation about the upcoming offseason.
However, even if the Orioles make two outside additions, Young, Povich and possibly Sugano could still earn a role on next year’s team. Based on recent performances, Young appears to be in the driver’s seat to be the O’s sixth starter. The 26-year-old rookie is coming off a near-perfect game and has shown higher upside than any other home-grown pitcher in the Elias era.
When Young’s been successful, it’s largely been a result of the same formula that’s helped Trevor Rogers succeed. At his best, Young combines pinpoint fastball command with above-average extension to help play up his average stuff.
We saw last Saturday against the Astros Young’s ability to attack the corners with his four-seam fastball, setting us his splitter, curveball and cutter as out pitches. Young’s arsenal is similar to Dean Kremer’s, but like Rogers, he leans heavily on the fastball instead of truly mixing up his pitches. Given that Rogers and Kremer have been the Orioles’ most successful pitchers this year, and Young presents a combination of their profiles, he appears to have the inside track toward a bigger role in 2026.
While Young has overperformed his expectations in 2025, Povich is closer to the other end of the spectrum. The lefty’s ERA is actually lower than Young’s (4.98 vs. 5.68), but the southpaw hasn’t taken a step forward in his second season in the big leagues. After a promising Spring Training and breaking as the team’s fifth starter, the expectation for Povich is that he’d establish himself as a more dependable big leaguer.
Instead, Povich has continued to be largely unpredictable while struggling to develop a consistent plan of attack against major league hitters. Similar to Rogers, Povich’s best two pitches are his fastball and changeup. However, the 25-year-old continues to rely heavily on his breaking balls, which opponents are crushing in 2025.
He throws his curveball primarily against right-handed hitters, who are hitting .318 and slugging .485 against the breaking ball. The results on Povich’s sweeper are even worse, with lefties hitting .313 and slugging .688 against the O’s starter’s other breaking ball. The results against Povich’s curveball and sweeper have been so bad that he ranks in the 1st percentile (which is as bad as it gets) in breaking ball Run Value.
That’s not to say that Povich hasn’t had some good moments across his 16 appearances this year. He has two quality starts and a handful of strong 5+ inning outings. However, his highs haven’t been nearly as high as Young and his plan of attack doesn’t seem nearly as well defined.
If the O’s choose to keep more veteran depth around, Sugano’s recent resurgence could be enough to earn him another one-year deal. At one point this season, it looked like the rookie’s struggles with the summer heat would completely derail a once-promising season. In seven starts from June 8th through July 21st, Sugano had a 7.88 ERA, a .347 average against and a 2.25 HR/9.
Since then, however, Tommy Sugar has returned to his early-season form. Across his last four outings, the 35-year-old Japanese rookie has a 2.31 ERA, is limiting opponents to a .205 average and has only allowed one HR in 23.1 innings. Perhaps most importantly, Sugano is consistently giving the O’s a chance to win, with Baltimore 4-0 across those four appearances.
Sugano’s fate seems tied to the future of Zach Eflin. It’s hard to imagine the Orioles wanting to retain a 32-year-old coming off back surgery AND bring back a 36-year-old Sugano, even if both offer tremendous upside as a potential fifth starter. Eflin has already said he’d be interested in returning to Baltimore, meaning Sugano’s play will need to convince the front office he’s the better veteran option as Eflin sits on the IL.
The remaining 37 games should be all about assessing this roster and laying the foundation for a return to relevance in 2026. For the pitching staff, that starts with determining if the likes of Young, Povich and Sugano can have a part to play in a competitive Orioles team.
