How a team loses matters.
Clemson came into its game against the Tar Heels reeling on offense. The Tigers offense ranked near the bottom in many statistical categories, having surrendered 11 tackles for loss and converted only two of fourteen third downs against Georgia Southern – not Georgia. Dabo Sweeney announced a switch to a true freshman QB, and unlike past years where that might have been a blue-chip recruit with “can’t miss NFL potential,” this meant UNC would see Tait Reynolds at QB, a three
star prospect according to On3. Bill Belichick, NFL GOAT, against a struggling offense making a desperate switch to a freshman QB recruited for development rather than instant impact? UNC fans expected a bloodbath.
In the second half, Clemson went with tempo and averaged 9.5 points per play, with Tait Reynolds averaging 13.9 yards per pass attempt. Context: 2019 LSU, considered the best college offense ever, averaged 7.9 yards per play, and Joe Burrough averaged 12.43 yards per pass attempt. UNC’s defense fell apart, when everyone expected Clemson’s offense and freshman QB to be the one disintegrating in the face of Belichick’s defensive adjustments.
Meanwhile, a Bobby Petrino offense has scored six total points in the second half of its two P4 games. That also runs 180 degrees opposite expectations. Billy Edwards ranks 16th in the ACC in completion percentage, 12th in yards per attempt, and 13th in passer rating. All that combines to leave Edwards and UNC’s passing offense 14th in the ACC in yards per game. Gio Lopez, the QB who last season at Carolina looked a lot like what Edwards looks now, currently ranks 2nd at Wake Forest.
A program that woke up last Saturday with Game Day teasing an appearance in Chapel Hill went to bed staring at the prospect of a four-game losing streak.
The road ahead appears treacherous
UNC gets its second bye week before the end of September. On the positive side, that gives Belichick and his staff extra time to figure out a possible change at quarterback. The defensive staff can try to remedy the depth and communication problems exposed by Clemson’s tempo attack. UNC can try to find some ways to surprise Notre Dame and get that contest into the second half, where a home crowd and the pressure on the Irish to go undefeated might play in UNC’s favor.
On the other hand, UNC will leave its bye week facing nine straight games over nine weeks and a huge question mark at the most important position on the field. Notre Dame will be an extremely physical game, the kind of opponent who leaves you with bruises and limps that carry into the following weeks. After Notre Dame, UNC travels to Pittsburgh and then Duke, both teams currently undefeated.
That schedule would be daunting enough with stability at the QB spot. A QB question magnifies the difficulty. Assuming UNC wants to switch quarterbacks, does Belichick try to do that against an elite program with a ferocious defense, even at home? New QBs in their first start on the road don’t have great track records; does Belichick wait to put in a new QB at Pitt? At Duke? Does he stick with a clearly struggling Edwards? The QB question may have no good answers.
A worst-case scenario of losses to Clemson, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Duke would leave UNC needing to win four of its remaining six games to even reach bowl eligibility. Two of those six opponents are Miami and Louisville. Sweeping Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia on the road, and NC State is certainly doable, although not probable.
That, however, assumes UNC’s relatively healthy when it reaches that closing stretch of nine games in nine weeks. UNC’s investment in 40 true freshmen this season means UNC’s depth is very young relative to its competition. The two deep could well feature a number of players less experienced and less physically developed than the guys they’re matching up against.
UNC still has a path to 7-5, but it now has just as much of one to 4-8. UNC will need good injury luck to have a shot at a winning season, and that presumes UNC quickly finds a solution at quarterback.
What do the metrics think about UNC?
Metrics look at the factors that over the years correlate the most with winning football games (efficiencies) and tend to discount things don’t (lucky bounces). Metrics don’t get the final word on how good or bad a team (or unit) might be, but metrics complement (and sometimes correct) our eye test. Each of these systems weights variables differently, and all of them suffer from small sample size at the moment. That said…
ESPN’s FPI dropped UNC 8 spots to 50th overall. The offense checks in at 59th, and the defense 37th nationally, while special teams comes in at 107. An eight point drop in a week is sizable in these metrics. Preseason weights for things like talent still measure prominently in the assessments. More game results will slowly wash out preseason data.
SP+ also dropped UNC 8 spots to 59th. SP+ disagrees with FPI on the offense, ranking it 83rd, and special teams, ranking it 37th. On defense, SP+ sees what FPI sees, ranking it 37th.
FEI remains skeptical but moved UNC up two spots to 73rd. FEI agrees with SP+ on the offense, ranking it 76th. However, FEI sees the defense quite differently from the other two, ranking it 73rd. As far as special teams, FEI splits the difference between the other two, ranking that unit 54th.
Which one do you think might be the most accurate for UNC so far?
Quick thoughts on future opponents based on what we saw last weekend
Notre Dame (3-0): The Irish may have slipped into “play with their food” territory against Michigan State, failing to cover a 29.5 point spread in a 27-10 win at home. Then again, they played last Saturday in the rain, as did most of the country, it seemed. The Irish go to Purdue before coming to Chapel Hill. Still an (L)
Pittsburgh (3-0): Mason Heintschel against Syracuse went 10-23 for 143 yards in a 27-13 win over Syracuse. Pitt so far hasn’t demonstrated the offense necessary to move this game out of coin flip territory. Still a (Toss Up)
Duke (3-0): Beating a team that has to fly all the way across the country is a lot easier than beating one from the next state over. That said, Duke easily handled Stanford 35-7. Nate Shepard now has 580 yards rushing and receiving and eight touchdowns on the season. While their QB seems very average, he’s yet to self destruct. Given that UNC did against Clemson, I’m moving this one from likely toss up to likely (L)
Syracuse (1-2): Who is Amari Odom? He’s the QB who replaced Steve Angeli, who was bad against Cal the week prior and remained bad this week. Angeli had the dazed and confused look we’ve now grown used to with UNC QBs over the past two years. This game may now come down to Fran Brown being willing to make a switch at QB early in the season, while Belichick waits too long. Until Odom breaths consistent life into the Syracuse offense, for UNC this remains a (W)
Miami (3-0): Miami keeps losing players to season-ending injury. Gio Lopez lit up their banged up secondary until the 4th quarter, when Wake Forest was trying to make up two scores. Still: (L)
Connecticut (2-1): Beat Southern Miss 48-20? Signs of life? Not enough to change this likely outcome. (W)
Louisville (2-1): The Cardinals’ offense gets better every game with Lincoln Keinholz. They beat SMU 41-31 in a game many predicted would determine the other spot in the ACC title game against Miami. Their defense looked leaky against Ole Miss and SMU, but no one’s confusing our offense with those two. (L)
Virginia (2-1): Lost to West Virginia 38-27, allowing the Mountaineers 247 yards rushing. Still, UNC would need to score at least 24 points in Charlottesville to even have a chance, and Bill Belichick’s offense at UNC averages 18.6 in conference play. (L)
NC State (1-2): You all saw the epic choke against Vanderbilt. NC State looks like it could fall apart in what many speculated could be Dave Doeren’s final season. There’s a real question now whether or not NC State allows him to finish it. (W)
