Congratulations to the Buffalo Bills and all their fans on what had to have been a magical night. Brand new stadium was rocking, high-scoring offense was undeniable, you couldn’t have storyboarded a more euphoric Thursday night without it coming off as far-fetched.
Speaking of far-fetched, how about that defense from the Detroit Lions? Unbelievable, right? After a 2025 season of poor performance on third-and-long to go, you couldn’t have seen this coming. The pass rush was re-tooled, and the secondary
was filled with guys they liked, but what if I told you it’s getting worse?
Much worse.
Last year’s opponent third-down conversion rate, 36.9%—which ranked ninth, pales in comparison to where the Lions are through two games—58.6%. At one point in the game, the Bills were 8-of-9 on third down, finishing the game 9-of-12 because they took a knee on their final drive. Remove that play and the Bills were converting third down at a 81.1% clip. Set aside their woes on third down, the Lions didn’t even force one of those on Buffalo’s opening drive that spanned 10 plays, 85 yards, and nearly six minutes of the opening stanza.
Yikes.
And I know, it’s a rather small sample size. It was a short week and they essentially played five quarters against New Orleans. Detroit’s shorthanded at safety with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph still on PUP, and D.J. Reed was playing through a foot injury; all the excuses are baked in for any hopeful fan. But it doesn’t matter what the situation is, it doesn’t matter who your opponent is, your defense cannot look like that, Kelvin Sheppard. It’s inexcusable.
The 2024 season feels like it’s fading further and further into the rearview, but remember how banged up that defense was? Of course you do, it was all anyone could talk about. More defenders on injured reserve than you can field on a practice squad. Aaron Glenn drew the ire of many a fan on social media, but Detroit’s opponent third-down conversion rate over the course of that season? 32.5%, first in the NFL. The Lions finished fifth in DVOA on defense, a top-10 run defense and pass defense according to DVOA. With the cupboard as barren as it was, Glenn’s defense still produced results.
The time for dismissing these problems as circumstance is over. Something has to give here. Brad Holmes has reimagined this secondary, to varying degrees of success, over four consecutive offseasons. For every Carlton Davis success story, there’s a Cam Sutton-sized reminder of a swing and a miss. Amik Robertson was a fruitful move in 2024, but the team’s top two draft picks from that year are either in Seattle or a healthy inactive on game day.
That doesn’t mean Holmes shouldn’t be looking to improve this secondary as soon as before this trade deadline, but if you think Joey Porter Jr. or some other veteran is going to be a magical elixir for what’s going on with Detroit’s defense, you’re kidding yourself. No one player is coming in here to fix everything all at once. These are coaching problems, and coaching problems have to be coached out.
And if we’re not laying all the blame at the feet of the guy buying the groceries—and I don’t think we should be—then the chef in charge of putting the meal together needs to accept his role in things. Miscommunication and missed assignments are plaguing this defense. Before this game got completely out of hand, Detroit forced Buffalo into a third-and-11 at the Detroit 43-yard line—essentially no man’s land. All the Lions have to do is keep the Bills short of the line to gain and they’ll either force a punt or a long field goal attempt. Instead, Avonte Maddox and Roger McCreary let Joshua Palmer slip past them, completely uncovered, for a 43-yard touchdown.
Detroit is 1-1, and the season is far from over. The Lions have more than a week to regroup and recover before Glenn and the New York Jets come to Ford Field. There is still plenty of time to fix this. But fixing it starts with acknowledging what Thursday night made painfully clear: this isn’t just an injury or personnel problem. It isn’t just defensive philosophy or playcalling. The problems are pervasive.
The Lions have a defensive problem, and at this point, Sheppard and his defensive staff have to be the ones to solve it.
