Arizona head coach Becky Burke believes her Wildcats still have some Big 12 wins in them. If they’re going to get one this Sunday, they will need to lock down on defense.
The Wildcats will host the Oklahoma State Cowgirls on Feb. 1 at 2 p.m. At 85.9 points per game, the Cowgirls even outscore the Iowa State team that dominated Arizona 90-65 last week. They sit at the top of the Big 12 in points per game.
In years past, this would have been a clash of styles. An Arizona defensive program that generally
stood near the top of its conference at limiting opponents’ points is having difficulty doing that in this transition year.
While they played a strong game against ASU on Wednesday and had a good showing against TCU two weeks ago, the Wildcats sit 14th in the 16-team league when it comes to points allowed. They are giving up 69.6 points overall and 73.8 against Big 12 opponents. The only conference team they have held below 60 points is UCF, and they still dropped that game by three points.
Since the 2018-19 season, which coincided with the Arizona debuts of Aari McDonald and Cate Reese, Her Hoops Stats has had Arizona among its top 50 defenses every year. It was actually only No. 45 that year, its lowest point over that period until this season. Its high point was at No. 5 in 2020-21. It has plunged to No. 107 so far this season and is dropping on a weekly basis.
Up Next for Arizona Women’s Basketball
RV Oklahoma State Cowgirls @ Arizona Wildcats
When: Sunday, Feb. 1 @ 2 p.m. MST
Where: McKale Center in Tucson, Ariz.
Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 1400 AM (KTUC)
Stats: Arizona Live Stats
When the Arizona defense has been most successful, it has been turning teams over. That may be more difficult against Oklahoma State. The Cowgirls are giving the ball away just 14.3 times per game in conference play and 14.0 overall. The overall number is second best in the league. Their overall turnover margin of 5.32 per game is also second in the league.
The problem for the Wildcats is that they don’t make up for that defensive drop on the offensive end, which also relies heavily on turning the other team over. Their best offensive year from 2018-19 through this season was 2019-20. HHS had them ranked No. 34 when the season was called off due to the pandemic.
Last season, they ended at No. 94 on offense while sporting the No. 42 defense. This season, the No. 107 defense is paired with the No. 97 offense. A team might have some level of success with one or the other of those rankings, but having both isn’t likely to lead to a lot of Power 4 wins.
Although the Cowgirls are receiving just one 25th-place vote in the AP poll right now, they have the look of a ranked team. In addition to scoring a lot of points, they’re holding opponents to 61.8 ppg. That’s a margin of victory of 24.1 ppg, which ranks second in the league behind No. 12 TCU.
Arizona has a big task in front of it if it hopes to get a second Big 12 win.
