Miami and Cleveland may make sense for a trade this offseason that could be mutually beneficial for both small-market teams trying to find a way into the 2026 playoffs.
Miami and the Guardians both had
better second halves than almost any other team in MLB, and both have rosters full of young players, but holes to fill in both pitching and hitting. Let’s see if there might be some trades that could help both sides out in their quests to build a sustained winner and a team that can compete in the year ahead.
Trade One: Miami trades Otto Lopez, 27 year-old RHH 2B/SS to Cleveland for for Welbyn Francisco, SHH SS and Austin Peterson, RHP.
Analysis: Lopez has a 90 wRC+ in the bigs, including reverse splits vs. LHP (109 wRC+ vs. RHP and 51 wRC+ vs. LHP). Why would the Guardians make this trade? One, Lopez is an excellent defender at second base (career 15 DRS and 22 OAA) and above average at shortstop (career 7 DRS and 1 OAA). Two, I suspect that Lopez’s issues vs. LHP – which are the primary driver of his below average offensive showing – are fixable since he put up good OPS’s against southpaws in the minors. If Lopez can be even an 100 wRC+ hitter, he could be a 4-win player at second base and a 3 win player at shortstop. At the very least, he is a valuable bench piece who will steal 15-20 bases and play good defense. In the trade, the Marlins get a good immediate option for a backend starter and a player with solid potential to be another Otto Lopez but is younger and more suited for the timeline of their team than a 27 year-old would be. This is probably an overpay by Cleveland, but I do think the Marlins would have a few suitors for Lopez because of his good defense.
Trade Two: Miami trades Heriberto Hernandez, 26 year-old RHH OF to Cleveland for Ralphy Velazquez, LHH 1B/OF and Rafe Schlesigner, LHP.
Analysis: In his rookie season, Hernandez put up a 118 wRC+ with exactly even splits (118 vs. both RHP and LHP). In limited innings in left and right field, Hernandez was average by Defensive Runs Saved (0) and positive by Outs Above Average (+2 at both spots). If the team acquires Hernandez, they likely have an immediate upgrade for the role of RHH corner outfielder and DH, assuming that David Fry and Angel Martinez are currently vying for that role, and a player who can start full-time in right field if injuries plague Chase DeLauter and/or George Valera. The issue of who will spell DeLauter in centerfield would remain, however, as Hernandez likely isn’t playable there. The acquisition cost won’t be cheap, but I think the Marlins would be happy to bet on Velazquez helping their team in short order and fitting more with their contention timeline in his age and on the potential that Schlesinger can be a backend of the rotation guy sooner rather than later.
Trade Three: Miami trades Edward Cabrera, RHP to Cleveland for Juan Brito, SH IF/OF and Parker Messick, LHP
Analysis: For the Guardians, this trade would be about securing the proven major league value of a pitcher like Cabrera (2 fWAR, 3.53 ERA, 10/3 K/BB/9) at the expense of the immense potential of Messick and Brito. I think this trade would actually make a lot of sense for both teams, but there’s no doubt there is risk to it for both, as well.
In suggesting and analyzing trades, there is always the frustrating fact that you never know which players are actually available or not. In this case, it would make sense for the Guardians and Marlins to talk and see if there is a way to help each other out.
