When: Saturday January 10 – 12:00 PM
Where: Donald L Tucker Civic Center, Tallahassee FL
TV: ACC Network
Opponent: Florida State Seminoles
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): NC State 86-79 / NC State 85-79
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 11-5, 2-1
- Rankings: KP #33, BT #31
- NET Ranking: NET 36, 8th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (0-4), Q2 (3-1), Q3 (4-0), Q4 (4-0)
Wolfpack Season So Far:
Takeaways from Will Wade’s radio show Thursday night
- The Pack’s 79-71 win at Boston College was its “best offensive performance, statistically speaking” and it was due to offensive changes the staff put in place.
- Coach Wade told his coaches to simplify, “Let’s just get the ball to Darrion, get the ball to Q, screen the worst defender on him and then get the hell out of the way and play. We don’t get any extra points for swinging and looking nice. Let’s just get straight to the point.”
- The biggest difference was getting the ball out of Quadir Copeland’s hands. Wade wants him to be the lead initiator at the starting point guard, but he was dominating the ball more than the coaches wanted.
- Copeland took the coach’s message to heart, he scored only 8 points on six shots but he had a season-high 10 assists. And Darrion Williams scored 22 points.
- The offensive adjustment included having Williams at point when Copeland left the floor. That worked so well, they will keep it going even after Holloman returns.
What’s On the Line?
- FSU is ranked 111 in the NET, making this a Q2 game. NC State has only lost 1 Q2 game.
The Wolfpack’s chance to make the NCAA Tournament is getting slimmer, the UVA loss hurt. All remaining Q2 and Q3 games are MUST WIN games and they’re going to have to win some Q1.
Wolfpack Player Notes:
- Tre Holloman – sprained ankle
- Jerry Deng – sprained groin
Opponent Overview:
ACC Media predicted that Florida State would finish 15th with their preseason votes. They currently rank 17th.
This is Coach Luke Loucks’ first head coaching job. The former Seminole player takes over the reigns from the legendary Leonard Hamilton. He comes to Tallahassee after 10 years of working as an assistant coach in the NBA for the Warriors, Suns, and most recently the Sacramento Kings.
’25-’26 is generally considered a rebuilding year for FSU, they have no Q1, Q2, or Q3 wins, however last Saturday on their home court they took Duke to the wire, they were within 2 with 23 seconds left, losing by 4.
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 7-8, 0-2
- Rankings: KP #105, BT #112
- NET Ranking: NET 115, 16th in ACC Conf NET rankings
- NET performance: Q1 (0-6), Q2 (0-1), Q3 (0-1), Q4 (7-0)
Their Season So Far:
Player Notes:
Somerville and MaGee are ranked 9th and 10th in 3PT made per game
NC State Will Lose This Game If …
- …they don’t play better defense: BC was the Wolfpack’s second worst graded defensive game of the season behind Texas. FSU is ranked 17th in the ACC in FG% and 16th in 3PT%. However Duke tried the ever popular “let’s not bother with defense” strategy last Saturday and the Seminoles shot 53.4% / 46.6% (their second best FG% and best 3PT% of the season) and almost beat them.
- …they don’t guard 3PT shooters MUCH better than they have: FSU is ranked 2nd in the ACC making 11.6 3PT shots per game, and ranks 1st in 3PT attempts. NC State’s defensive strategy has been to allow opposing teams to take ‘bad 3PT shots.’ That will not work against FSU. Against Duke, Wiggins (averaging 32.3%) was 4-5, McCray (30.9%) was 3-4, Somerville (39.1%) was 2-5, and Magee (34.7%) was 4-7. Jones had an off night (1-6), but earlier in the season he shot 10-21 from 3PT against Ga Southern.
- …they don’t minimize turnovers: The FSU success formula is to force a lot of turnovers and shoot a high volume of 3PT shots. FSU is ranked 1st in the ACC forcing a very impressive 16.7 turnovers per game. They are tied for 2nd in the ACC forcing an average 9.47 steals per game. That formula nearly worked against Duke. (FSU forced 15 turnovers including 10 steals, 46.6% from 3PT)
Prediction:
The Wolfpack has a ’cover your eyes’ half and trails at halftime, but they starting hitting shots and dial up the defense in the second half and wins 80-69.
