For all the angst about Kliff Kingsbury’s play calling, the inability of the defense to stop the run, or the disappointing rushing attack, the Commanders had a 2 point lead and were seemingly in control with 3:10 remaining in the fourth quarter.
What happened next was the same thing that kept them from taking a commanding lead earlier in the game: a turnover on a botched handoff to RB Bill Croskey-Merritt. The Commanders’ third unanswered turnover of the game gave Bears’ RB D’Andre Swift the opportunity
he needed to march his team into field goal position and steal the win on the final play of the game.
The Commanders’ opening drive ended on a Jayden Daniels interception, thrown from the Chicago 21 yard line. That resulted in a Bears’ field goal. On the second play of the next possession, Bill Croskey-Merritt fumbled at the Washington 35 yard line, setting up a Chicago touchdown. Rather than scoring a TD and possibly more, those turnovers allowed the Bears to build a 13-0 lead in the first quarter.
The Commanders had struggles on offense and defense, but the main reason they lost was turnovers. In 2024, there were 35 games with turnover differentials of 3 or more. The teams on the positive side of the turnover margin won 32 (91.4%) of those games. While not impossible, it is extremely difficult to come back from that kind of deficit. To their credit, the Commanders fought from the first two turnovers to establish an 8 point lead by early in the fourth quarter. But their clutch play was simply not enough to make up for their own mistakes.
What might have been lost on fans smarting from the loss in a very winnable game were some strong performances on offense, defense and special teams. In fact, as we’ll see in a second, the Commanders made the most big plays in the game, but the four biggest plays of the game all involved mistakes by Commanders. Let’s have a look at who stepped up and who didn’t in the search for silver linings in the Commanders’ painful home loss to the Chicago Bears.
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
This week, I’m brining back a section I’ve run in the past – biggest plays of the game, as quantified by Expected Points Added (EPA). These are all the plays with EPA greater than + 2 or less than -2.
Biggest Plays for the Commanders
Q3, 3:03, 2nd and 9 at CHI 33: Jayden Daniels pass complete deep left to Luke McCaffrey for 33 yd touchdown. EPA 4.09
Q2, 9:33, 2nd and 10 at CHI 22: Jayden Daniels pass complete short left to Chris Moore for 22 yd touchdown. EPA 3.44
Q4, 12:49, 2nd and 6 at CHI 44: Jayden Daniels pass complete deep right to Jaylin Lane for 37 yards (penalty on CHI declined). EPA 3.21
Q3, 4.30, 4th and 2 at CHI 47: Jayden Daniels pass complete short left to Jeremy McNichols for 13 yards. EPA 3.18
Q4, 15:00, 4th and 6 at WAS 30: Jake Moody 48 yard field goal attempt blocked by Daron Payne. EPA -2.83
Q4, 4:43, 3rd and 13 at WAS 36: Jayden Daniels pass complete short middle to Jeremy McNichols for 15 yards. EPA 2.42
Q2, 5:34, 4th and 1 at WAS 31: Caleb Williams pass incomplete short left intended for Rome Odunze – defended by Frankie Luvu. EPA -2.41
Q4, 11:31, 2nd and 6 at CHI 6: Jayden Daniels pass complete short middle to Zach Ertz for 6 yards, touchdown. EPA 2.05
Q3, 12.03, 4th and 16 at CHI 35: Matt Gay 53 yard field goal. EPA 2.03
Biggest Plays for da Bears
Q4, 10:35, 3rd and 4 at CHI 45: Caleb Williams pass complete short left to D’Andre Swift for 55 yards, touchdown – missed tackle by Quan Martin. EPA 5.91
Q1, 6:18, 2nd and 5 at CHI 21: Jayden Daniels pass deep left intended for Deebo Samuel is intercepted by Jaquan Brisker at CHI-2 and returned for 32 yards (tackle by Jayden Daniels). EPA -5.17
Q1, 2:13, 1st and 10 at WAS 35: Jacory Croskey-Merritt run left tackle for no gain. Jacory Croskey-Merritt fumble forced by Montez Sweat, recovered by Kyler Gordon at WAS-35. EPA -4.52
Q4, 3:10, 3rd and 1 at CHI 40: Jayden Daniels fumbled snap, recovered by Nahshon Wright at CHI-44. EPA -4.14
Q2, 1:14, 4th and 7 at CHI 32: Matt Gay 50 yard field goal no good. EPA -2.84
Q3, 10:19, 1st and 10 at CHI 48: Caleb Williams pass complete deep right to Luther Burden for 37 yards (tackle by Mike Sainristil and Quan Martin). EPA: 2.45
Q3, 12:13, 2nd and 6 at CHI 25: Jayden Daniels pass incomplete deep right. Penalty on Jayden Daniels: Intentional Grounding, 10 yards. EPA -2.02
OFFENSE
Aside from his first interception of the season, and the game losing fumble, Jayden Daniels had a very good game. He completed 19 of 26 passes (73.1%, ADOT 8.2 yds) for 211 yds and 3 TDs with 1 interception, with 2 fumbles (1 lost, 1 recovered). Jayden was pressured on 9/35 dropbacks (25.7%) and was sacked 3 times for 6 yds (33.3 P2S%).
According to Pro Football Reference (PFR), Jayden made 1 bad throw (season low), and had 2 passes dropped and 1 batted at the line. He was called for his second intentional grounding penalty of the season, which was just the fourth penalty of his career to date.
On the ground, Jayden ran 10 times for 52 yds, including 6 scrambles for 9 yds.
Even with the turnovers, Jayden’s effort was good for a 69.6 Total QBR, which ranked 10th in Week 6, and was his second highest mark this season.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt assumed the lead back role with 17 rushing attempts for 61 yds (3.6 Y/A), 4 first downs and 1 broken tackle, with 1 lost fumble (Success Rate 47.1%).
Like last season, the Commanders’ rushing success seems to be covarying with the run blocking ahead of them. Against Chicago, Bill averaged just 1.9 Yards Before Contact/Attempt, down from 4.1 YBC/Att the previous week against the Chargers, when he averaged 7.9 Y/A.
He caught his only target for a 7 yard reception.
Jeremy McNichols only had 2 carries for 5 yds and 1 first down (Success Rate 50%). He was also hit early, averaging just 1.5 YBC/Att. McNichols has been used more as a receiver than a RB in recent games. On Monday night he caught 3 of 4 targets for 30 yds and 2 first downs (Success Rate 50%). He was responsible for two of the biggest offensive plays by the Commanders: a 13 yard reception on 4th and 2 from the CHI 47, and a 15 yd reception on 3rd and 13 from the WAS 36, late in the fourth quarter.
Chris Rodriguez ran 1 route from the slot and was not targeted.
Hands up in the comments if you picked Chris Moore to lead the Commanders in receiving yards. Moore caught 3/5 targets (60%; ADOT 12.2 yds) for 46 yards, 3 first downs and 1 TD on a highlight reel catch with an acrobatic move to make two point of contact inbounds. He caught 2 of 3 contested targets and dropped 1 pass. Moore was the Commanders’ fourth most productive receiver at a respectable 1.77 Y/RR.
Jaylin Lane was second in receiving yards among the wideouts, with a single 37 yard reception (target depth 28 yds, 9 YAC) on his only target. He was the Commanders’ most productive receiver at 3.08 Y/RR. He also had 1 rushing attempt for 7 yds. Lane spent more than half his time on the field run blocking and received a team high 78.6 PFF run blocking grade for his efforts.
Luke McCaffrey was close behind Lane with 1/1 rec for a 33 yard TD. That was the Commanders biggest positive play on offense as judged by EPA (+ 4.09). He was the Commanders’ second most productive receiver at 2.54 Y/RR. Luke has caught 3 TDs on 10 targets this season. He is currently in a 3-way tie for second highest Receiving Success Rate at 80%, after the 49ers’ FB Kyle Juszczyk at 83.3% (min 10 tgt).
Deebo Samuel caught 4/5 targets for just 15 yds and 1 first down. He had 1 rushing attempt for -1 yard. It was his worst game as a Commander.
Tay Martin and Ja’Corey Brooks each played 7 offensive snaps with no targets.
Zach Ertz rebounded following an uncharacteristic lull in Week 5 to lead the Commanders in receptions (6), reception rate (6/6, 100%), and contested catch rate (2/2, 100%). He was also first in Receiving Success Rate (83.3%) among Commanders with more than 1 target, and tied for most receiving TDs (1) and first downs (3). He finished second on the team with 43 receiving yards, with some clutch catches to move the chains and find the end zone. According to PFF, Ertz was the Commanders’ fourth best run blocker, grade 66.2. If there was a problem on offense beyond turnovers and possibly run blocking, it wasn’t Zach Ertz.
Ertz was the only TE targeted as a receiver, and the only TE to earn a run blocking grade above 56.
Someone commented last week about the pleasing cascading effect of the snap counts by position table. The Commanders made slight tweaks to the pattern this week, with Josh Connerly taking 1 tackle at LT and Laremy Tunsil moving out to inline TE for a snap. Three of the four linemen played well in pass protection. Run blocking remains an area for improvement as judged by RBs’ YBC, as discussed in the RBs section.
LT Laremy Tunsil allowed 2 hurries in 40 pass block snaps. His 5.0% Pressure Rate allowed is just on the cusp of quality starting-level play for OTs. Tunsil kept his streak going of at least one penalty per game, with a false start flag for 5 yds in the
LG Chris Paul and C Tyler Biadasz each allowed 1 hurry in 40 PB snaps, for 2.5% Pressure Rates, which is right in the zone for iOL.
RG Andrew Wylie allowed 1 sack and 2 hurries, for a 7.5% Pressure Rate, about twice the rate of pressure that you’d like to see from a guard. In addition allowing his first sack of the season, Wylie got called for being ineligible downfield in the fourth quarter. It was his worst performance this season.
Rookie RT Josh Conerly the same stat line in pass pro as his bookend, Laremy Tunsil. It was a big improvement after allowing pressures on 11.4% of dropbacks against the Chargers.
DEFENSE
Dorance Armstrong continued his ascension to the upper tier of Edge Defenders with another strong performance. He joined Von Miller on a sack, and notched 3 QB hurries and 1 tackle/stop, according to PFF. PFR credited him with an additional QB hit and a tackle assist. Armstrong pressured Caleb Williams on 18% of pass rush attempts, which is in the very good range for an edge rusher. PFR charges him with a missed tackle, which PFF did not see. Dorance currently has the 5th most sacks in the NFL and is on pace for 15.5 sacks in the regular season.
Jacob Martin made 1 tackle (2 per PFF) and 2 assists. In the pass rush, he generated 1 QB hit and 2 hurries per PFF (PFR 1 hurry). PFF’s figures give him a 15% Pressure Rate. He dropped into coverage on 1 snap and was targeted for a 10 yd reception by former Commander Olamide Zaccheaus.
Current Commander/former Redskin Preston Smith got more playing time and made more impact this week, according to PFF, who counted 1 tackle, 1 assist and 2 hurries. PFR just counted 2 assists and no pressures.
Von Miller had 0.5 sack and 1 hurry and made 1 tackle for a defensive stop.
Jalyn Holmes played mainly on the interior for the first time this season, presumably to allow other DTs to replace Eddie Goldman, who was sidelined with illness. Holmes recorded 2 tackles and 2 assists per PFF (PFR: 1 tkl, 3 asst).
The Commanders were down to three DTs plus Jalyn Holmes, with Eddie Goldman off sick. That might account for some weakness defending the run on interior gaps, but can’t explain the Bears rushing for averages of 7.5 yds on 2 runs around the left end (right DL edge) or 9.8 yds on 5 runs around the right end.
Daron Payne made 2 tackles and 3 assists with 3 defensive stops. PFR counted 1 missed tackle, but not PFF. He generated 1 pressure in the pass rush.
Javon Kinlaw had an unusually quiet game, with just 1 tkl/stop and 1 hurry per PFF, or just 1 tackle assist per PFR.
Johnny Newton played more on the interior and less on the ends than he has in recent games. This season, he has taken 39% of defensive snaps from edge alignments (DE/OLB). On Monday night, that shrank to 15%. Newton played half as much as the starters and still registered 2 tackles and 1 assist with 2 defensive stops. His lack of pass rush production this game might be related to the change in the way he was utilized. Last week he generated pressure on 23.5% of dropbacks, while taking 42% of snaps on the edge.
Bobby Wagner led the team in combined tackles, with 4 tackles, 5 assists and 1 TFL per PFR, or 7 tackles, 4 assists and 3 stops per PFF. He also generated 1 hurry on 4 blitzes.
According to PFF, Wagner was targeted 6 times in coverage for 5 receptions (83.3%) and 72 yds. PFR paints a slightly better picture at 4/6 rec (66.7%) for 47 yds.
Frankie Luvu had his best game of what has been a mostly disappointing season. Luvu recorded 4 tackles, 2 assists, 1 TFL and 1 miss, with 2 defensive stops. He generated 1 sack and 2 QB hurries on 16 pass rush snaps (20% Pressure Rate).
In coverage, PFF counted 2 tgts for 2 rec and 17 yds, with 1 PBU as a secondary defender. PFR saw just 1 tgt for a 6 yd reception.
The two stats services I use had very different takes on the coverage performance of two of Washington’s CBs. So I’ll start with the player on whom they were in close agreement.
Marshon Lattimore had his fourth lockdown performance of the season, and this one might have been his best. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he allowed 2 targets and 0 receptions in 38 coverage snaps. Pro Football Reference (PFR) counted 3 targets and 1 reception for 13 yards. Using the latter figures, he allowed just 0.342 Y/Cov Snap, which is an elite level performance for an outside corner.
Aside from that, he made 1 tackle for a stop.
The stats services were most divided on Trey Amos. PFF credited him with 4 targets, 2 receptions and 21 yds allowed in 38 coverage snaps, with 1 PBU, which equates to 0.553 Y/Cov Snap. That is still well below the 0.7 Y/Cov Snap threshold for lockdown performance.
PFR, on the other hand, graded him as fairly leaky in coverage. They counted 6 targets, 5 receptions and 57 receiving yards for a sub-par 1.50 Y/Cov Snap. At least they agreed on the PBU.
Both services agreed that Amos was second on the team in combined tackles (PFF 6 tkl, 2 asst, 1 miss, 2 stops; PFR 3 tkl, 4 asst). All of the tackles counted by PFF were after receptions.
Both services agreed that Mike Sainristil was leaky in coverage, but they disagreed on the extent of the issue. PFR graded him just outside the good range at 1.06 Y/Cov Snap (3 tgt, 1 rec, 37 yds) in 35 coverage snaps. PFF rated his performance much worse at 1.43 Y/Cov Snap (5 tgt, 2 rec, 50 yds). Both credited him with 1 PBU.
PFF credited him with 2 tackles and 1 run stop. PFR counted 3 assists and 1 missed tackle.
Quan Martin is something of an enigma. PFF gave him their highest grade on the Commanders’ defense (79.9). But their own Premium Stats paint a more mixed picture. He made 3 tackles and 3 assists, with 1 stop and 2 missed tackles. One of the missed tackles was the whiff on De’Andre Smith’s 55 yard TD reception, after he allowed the completion in coverage. It was his only reception allowed out of three targets in coverage, and made PBUs on the other two. I can see their point, that aside from that one play, he had a good game. But it was a costly lapse, which allowed the Bears to pull within 2 points, setting up the game winning score on the final play.
Jeremy Reaves made 3 tackles, 2 assists, and 1 TFL, with 1 stop and 2 missed tackles. He generated 1 hurry on 2 blitzes. In coverage, he was targeted 4 times, allowing 3 receptions for 21 yds per PFF (PFR: 3 tgt, 2 rec, 17 yds).
Darnell Savage was given more playing time and rewarded the Commanders with increased production. He made 2 tackles and 2 assists with 1 stop and 1 missed tackle, and generated a QB hurry on his lone pass rush attempt from the OLB position. He was targeted twice in 16 coverage snaps and allowed 1 reception for 1 yd.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Luke McCaffrey returned 4 kickoffs for 127 yds (31.8 Y/A) with a long of 37 and no fair catches or drops. That effort moved him into second place in the NFL in total kick return yards (504 yd). He has the highest kick return average (31.5 yds) among players with at least 10 return attempts. Lowering the minimum to 6 returns drops him to 3rd place.
Jaylin Lane got back on the board with 1 punt return for 9 yds.
Matt Gay made a field goal from 53 yards and dinked one off the goal post from 50 yards before the half. It would be tempting to look at the final score and think, “what if he made that one?” There are probably bigger reasons that the Commanders lost, but it’s still a good question to ask when your kicker is at 71.4% on the season, and hasn’t been above 84% since 2022. He was 3/3 on extra points. Who cares? You’re supposed to make those.
Tress Way booted 1 punt for 30 yds, which was fair caught at the Chicago 9 yard line.
Tyler Ott is still the long snapper.
Daron Payne made the play of the week on special teams, by blocking a field goal on the first play of the fourth quarter to preserve the Commanders’ 17-16 lead. A lot of fans might not even realize that he plays on special teams. But Daron has been a regular on field goal block units throughout his career. For some reason blocked field goals and punts are not recorded as stats by the NFL or any of the major stats services.
CB Antonio Hamilton led the special teams coverage units this week with 1 tackle and 1 assist.
Jordan Magee, Luke McCaffrey and Mike Sainristil each made 1 tackle. Colson Yankoff and Percy Butler had single assists. WR Tay Martin missed 1 tackle.
As of Week 7, Colson Yankoff leads the return units with 4 tkl, 3 asst and 2 missed tackles. Percy Butler is in silver medal position with 4 tkl, 1 asst and 1 miss. And Luke McCaffrey pulls into bronze medal position with 3 tkl and 1 asst, just beating out last season’s leader Nick Bellore, who has the same tackle total with 1 miss.
