The Detroit Lions cannot wait any longer. If they’re going to make a serious Super Bowl push, it has to start this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. For any realistic chance to make the playoffs, the Lions need to win out, and even that doesn’t guarantee them a spot in the postseason.
The Steelers, too, are trying to convince people they are worthy playoff contenders. While they control their own destiny for the AFC North title, their entire season has been underwhelming.
So how do the two teams
match up? Who has the statistical advantages in each aspect of the game? Let’s break it down in our Lions vs. Steelers preview and prediction: On Paper.
Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA) vs. Steelers pass defense (11th)
The Lions’ passing attack continues to show why they’re one of the best in football, and Jared Goff is on a bit of a hot streak. While much of their production this year has been against poor defenses, they’ve produced high numbers against the Packers and Rams in recent weeks, two of the better defenses in the league. This is especially encouraging given the loss of Sam LaPorta over a month ago.
For the season, the Lions rank:
- Second in passer rating (110.4)
- Fifth in yards per attempt (8.0)
- Fifth in dropback EPA (0.195)
- Ninth in success rate (48.9%)
By just about all efficiency metrics, this is a top-10 pass offense that is bordering on a top-five ranking. And speaking of top-five, the Lions’ duo of Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown are making a case for one of the best receiving duos in football. In the past six weeks alone, they both are producing ridiculous numbers:
- St. Brown: 505 yards, 4 TDs
- Williams: 581 yards, 4 TDs
And the crazy thing is that includes a 0-yard game for both players over that span.
As it has been for the entire season, the most suspect unit is the offensive line and pass protection. Detroit ranks 22nd in PFF pass blocking grade, 29th in pass block win rate, 19th in pressure rate allowed (per NFL Pro), and 32nd in time to pressure allowed. The good news is the Lions get the ball out quick (2.72 seconds, fifth in NFL), which mitigates some of that damage.
The Steelers give up a ton of yardage, as evidenced by the chart above, but their defensive efficiency is much better. Only two quarterbacks over the past two months have significantly outperformed their passer rating average when playing the Steelers. For the season, this pass defense has hung around average in most metrics:
- 14th in passer rating (90.3)
- 14th in yards per attempt (7.0)
- 13th in dropback EPA (0.049)
- 13th in success rate (46.3%)
Where they typically thrive is in their pass rush. They rank third in PFF pass rush grade, fourth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, 25th in pressure rate (NFL Pro), but fourth in time to pressure. Unfortunately for them, they may be without two of their top pass rushers in T.J. Watt (22nd-best PFF pass rushing grade) and Nick Herbig (eighth).
In terms of coverage, there’s been so many moving parts in the secondary that it’s hard to get a good sense of where they’re currently at. Starting cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. was added midseason and Jalen Ramsey was moved to safety about a month ago. There seems to have been some improvement, but it’s worth mentioning Pittsburgh has PFF’s 16th-best coverage grade, and they rank 26th in average separation allowed per target.
Player to watch: CENTER WATCH. At this point, it’s unclear what Graham Glasgow’s status is after a knee injury cost him Thursday’s practice. His backup, Trystan Colon, is dealing with a wrist injury, too. But as we’ve seen all year, the downgrade at center has been a problem, and this could make it worse.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. The Steelers read to me as a pretty average pass defense that will likely be missing a couple key components of their pass rush. Detroit has been bordering on a top-five offense, but I am a little concerned about the injuries on the offensive line. Still, Goff should continue his run of productive days.
Lions run offense (5th) vs. Steelers run defense (16th)
I’ve been warning of an inconsistent running game that is a bit too over-reliant on explosive plays, and that came to roost last week against the Rams, where the Lions produced one of their worst rushing efforts of the season. They’ve now produced four games under 80 rushing yards—all under 3.6 yards per carry—and they’ve lost all four of those games.
It’s the same old story with their efficiency metrics: they look very productive as an overall average, but their below-average success rate suggests fundamental issues masked by explosive runs:
- 4.9 yards per carry (fourth)
- -0.013 rush EPA (eighth)
- 40.8% success rate (20th)
You can’t completely ignore the explosive plays, though. While the Lions only rank 15th in rushes of 10+ yards, when you bump that up to 20 yards, the Lions are tied for the second-most (14), and if you raise it to 30-yard rushes, no one has more than Detroit’s nine.
Still, I have concerns about the consistency of Detroit’s run blocking, which ranks seventh in PFF grade, 25th in run block win rate, and 12th in adjusted line yards.
Talk about an inconsistent unit. The Steelers have managed to hold some of the best rushing attacks (Bears, Colts, Dolphins) well below their season averages, but they’ve also recently allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Bills and Ravens. While those teams benefit from mobile quarterbacks, most of the damage done in those games was via a traditional running game.
For the season, the Steelers rank average or below average.
- 20th in yards per carry (4.4)
- 28th in rush EPA (-0.002)
- 20th in success rate (42.4%)
In terms of explosive plays allowed, the Steelers are right around league average, allowing 42 rushes of 10+ yards (t-16th), and seven rushes of 20+ yards (t-15th).
Player to watch: Cameron Heyward. With all the uncertainty surrounding Detroit’s interior offensive line, it’s worth pointing out that the Steelers’ 36-year-old defensive tackle is still killing it. He’s got the third-highest run defense grade among interior defenders (83.0) and fifth in the league in run stops (25).
Advantage: Lions +0.5. I can really see this going either way because of the inconsistencies of each unit and the injuries along Detroit’s offensive line. But for the year, Detroit has found more success than the Steelers, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Detroit break out a game-changing explosive run this week.
Steelers pass offense (23rd) vs. Lions pass defense (7th)
The Pittsburgh Steelers don’t pass the ball a ton (24th in attempt) or for much yardage (23rd in yards per game), but their efficiency numbers are actually somewhat respectable. Thus are the benefits of having a veteran quarterback who can get the ball out quick (second shortest time to pass), avoid turnovers, and complete a high percentage of his low-risk passes (seventh in completion percentage).
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ passing attack rank:
- Ninth in passer rating (97.1)
- 19th in yards per attempt (6.9)
- 17th in dropback EPA (0.066)
- 20th in success rate (45.5%)
There’s nothing particularly interesting or dynamic about the Steelers’ passing attack. They very rarely test defenses deep, with Rodgers attempting just 34 passes of 20+ air yards (t-26th) resulting in just 26.1 yards per game (28th).
Rodgers has looked a little more comfortable in recent weeks with veterans Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling added to the receiving corps for the past two games, but that has always been against some questionable defenses.
D.K. Metcalf remains the biggest threat, as he has double the receiving yards (808) of anyone else on the team (TE Pat Freiermuth, 352).
While the Steelers typically get the ball out so quick that pass protection doesn’t matter much, it’s worth noting Pittsburgh could be starting their third-string left tackle and backup left guard.
Detroit’s pass defense is in a bit of a rut, although they’ve played some explosive attacks in the past three weeks. Still, allowing over 300 yards and above a 100 passer rating in three of their last four games is not exactly a promising development for a team hoping to hit its stride for a December playoff run.
That said, most statistics probably aren’t as bad as you think right now. Detroit ranks:
- 19th in passer rating (94.0)
- 26th in yards per attempt (7.5)
- 18th in dropback EPA (0.073)
- 12th in success rate (45.0%)
I’ll mention it again, the biggest problem with the unit is the continued explosive plays allowed. They’ve allowed the most 20 and 30-yard pass plays. It’s not particularly close when it comes to 30-yard pass plays, as they’ve allowed 29, and the second most (Carolina, Chicago) have allowed just 21.
It’s been a mixture of coverage and pressure that have failed them. While the secondary has been frustratingly close to making plays on deep shots (first in average separation, fifth on deep passes), they are giving up the seventh-highest EPA/pass on deep passes. It certainly doesn’t help that Detroit’s pass rush ranks 29th in time to pressure.
The good news is the Steelers aren’t a huge threat for deep shots, but don’t be surprised if Rodgers attempts to test Detroit’s secondaries with an abnormal amount of shot plays to Metcalf.
Player to watch: RB Kenneth Gainwell. By receptions, the Steelers’ running backs rank first and third on the team. Gainwell leads the team with 57 catches for 332 yards and Jaylen Warren isn’t far behind with 33 catches for 292 yards. Detroit has done a relatively good job defending running backs in the passing game (14th in DVOA), but they’ll be tested more than ever.
Advantage: Draw. I can’t in good faith give the Lions an advantage here. While I don’t think it’s likely Rodgers goes for 300 or more, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the savvy veteran exploit some of Detroit’s deep vulnerabilities. Still, if they stick to their normal game plan, it’ll be death by a thousand cuts, which actually plays to Detroit’s relative strengths.
Steelers run offense (12th) vs. Lions run defense (11th)
This is a fascinating disconnect between DVOA and our charts. By no means is this an explosive rushing attack. In fact, it’s pretty darn bad. They’ve only rushed for over 100 yards six times in 14 games, and they’ve been held below 4.0 yards per carry in half of their games. But by some advanced metrics, they actually look a little better than you’d think. Overall, they rank:
- 28th in yards per carry (3.9)
- Ninth in rush EPA (-0.016)
- Eighth in rushing success rate (43.7%)
Pittsburgh lacks a big-play threat on the ground. They only have 30 rushes of 10+ yards (t-29th) and five of 20+ yards (t-26th). However, they are very efficient in short-yardage situations, ranking 11th in power success (they operate a version of the tush push) and third in red zone success rate (66.7%).
Very much like their passing attack, the run offense isn’t explosive, but they gain yards when they need them and typically helps them avoid getting behind the chains.
The Lions have now allowed 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games, which is a stark contrast to the last four years of run defense in Detroit. There’s still been far more good than bad for Detroit’s defensive front, but the recent trends are certainly concerning.
On the season, the Lions rank:
- Eighth in yards per carry (4.0)
- 16th in rush EPA (-0.079)
- 16th in success rate (41.0%)
Detroit typically doesn’t give up big runs, allowing 42 runs of 10+ yards (16th), but just five rushes of 20+ yards (t-fourth). So that lines up nicely against the Steelers’ non-explosive rushing attack. The Lions also still rank first in short-yardage run defense (49% success rate), but that number has dropped drastically after a ridiculously impressive start to the season.
One mildly concerning thing about this matchup is that the Rams saw a ton of success last week utilizing 13 personnel and jumbo packages. The Steelers are second behind the Rams in 13 personnel usage frequency. However, their efficiency numbers are nowhere close to each other.
Rams in 13 personnel:
- 62.44 EPA (first)
- 0.47 EPA per pass (fifth)
- 0.10 EPA per rush (fourth)
Steelers in 13 personnel:
- 2.71 EPA (11th)
- 0.04 EPA per pass (21st)
- 0.0 EPA per rush (13th)
Player to watch: Darnell Washington. The Steelers’ massive tight end is key to Pittsburgh’s rushing attack, and he carries the second-best run blocking grade (76.8) among all NFL tight ends.
Advantage: Draw. If I were to go completely based on the charts, this looks like a big advantage in Detroit’s favor. But a deeper dive into the stats show pretty average units from both teams. Again, the Steelers aren’t likely to have a monster day on the ground, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stay ahead of the chains regularly.
Last week’s prediction:
Honestly, I thought I did a pretty good job with my column last week. I rightfully expressed doubt that Detroit would struggle to run the ball and stop the run. And it was basically a bingo free spot that Matthew Stafford would have a solid game. If there’s one part of the game I didn’t see coming, it was Detroit’s success passing the ball, which kept the game closer than my 34-21 Rams prediction.
In the comment section (over on the predictions post), Polishprince81 won the On Paper challenge with their 42-31 Rams prediction. Enjoy your prize:
This week’s prediction:
The Lions come out with just a +2 advantage, which feels uncomfortably close for a game they absolutely need to win. But everything points to this being a long-possession, grind-it-out game rather than a shootout. That’s how the Steelers love to play, and it probably works in Detroit’s favor, as well, considering their recent struggles in shootouts.
That said, when a game is projected to be so close, I typically give the edge to the team that is more likely to produce explosive plays on both sides of the ball, and believe it or not, that is the Detroit Lions. They’ve produced way more offensive explosive plays—67 plays of 20+ yards compared to Pittsburgh’s 39. And on defense, the Lions and Steelers are nearly dead even in sacks (40 vs. 39 in Pittsburgh’s favor) while the Steelers have a somewhat significant edge in takeaways (24 vs. 17). But with the Lions only turning the ball over eight times this season (first), that may not matter. Lions 24, Steelers 20.
